It could be a very memorable Memorial Day for the Boston Celtics as they enter tonight's game just one win away from the NBA Finals. Tonight I'm backing Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Andrew Nembhard to excel in Game 4.
Let's dive into my NBA player props tonight.
Jayson Tatum More Than 40 Points + Rebounds
Celtics vs. Pacers | 8 p.m. ET, Game 4
It is no surprise that the Boston Celtics are a game away from another NBA Finals appearance, particularly with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown leading the team. Due to those expectations, Tatum has caught some criticism when he has struggled, and Brown has been more aggressive this postseason. However, when it is time to close out a series, Tatum has been up to the task.
Since the 2022 postseason, Tatum is averaging 26.7 points when his team has a chance to close out a series, and the Celtics are an impressive 7-1 in those games. The high point was the 51-point outburst he had against the 76ers in Game 7 of last year's Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Celtics do not need 50 from him tonight, but Tatum does seem to like facing the Pacers.
Over the last 10 meetings, Tatum is averaging 33.1 points and 9.6 rebounds against Indiana. In this series, he is averaging 31.7 points and 9.3 per game. As a result, Tatum has reached this projection in eight of his last 10 games against the Pacers and four of his last six playoff games overall.
Both against the Pacers and recently against other teams, Tatum often has exceeded 44 points and rebounds combined. Tonight, we only need 40, and he can get there with 30 points and 10 rebounds.
Derrick White Over 5.5 Assists (+110)
Celtics vs. Pacers | 8 p.m. ET, Game 4
A few of Tatum's baskets might be assisted by Derrick White, although assists for the Celtics are expected to be evenly distributed. Tatum, White and Jrue Holiday all have lines set at 5.5 assists. However, I am going with White because he has been particularly generous of late.
White has had six assists in each of his last four games, including nine in Game 1 and seven in Game 3. He has also hit this line in six of his last nine games against Indiana, averaging 5.5 assists per game in that span.
However, White is converting virtually all of his potential assists of late (76% in this series), but there are a few reasons for that. The first is that the Celtics have strong finishers like Tatum, Brown, Holiday, etc. Second, the Pacers are in the Eastern Conference Finals, but they didn't get here because of their defense.
The Celtics are averaging 124.3 points per game and shooting 49% in this series. That leaves a lot of points and assists to go around, including for White, who is averaging 17 points per game in this series as well. I expect him to crack double digits again while dishing out six assists as well. You can also back him for eight assists at +440 on FanDuel, which he has already cashed once in this series and came up just short of this number on Saturday.
Andrew Nembhard Over 16.5 Points (-110)
Celtics vs. Pacers | 8 p.m. ET, Game 4
So before getting into why I love this play, first we have to look into Tyrese Haliburton's injury. Haliburton left Game 2 with a hamstring injury and also missed 10 games because of that injury in the regular season. When he was ruled out for Game 3, it was reported that his status for Game 4 was in serious doubt. He is listed as questionable tonight, and if he plays, Nembhard's line may drop to 12.5.
However, given that Haliburton is Indiana's franchise player, the trickiness of hamstring injuries and the four-day turnaround, I am assuming that he does not play tonight.
If Haliburton does not play tonight, Nembhard just may smash this line. He did so in Game 3 with 32 points on 12-for-21 from the field and 4-for-7 from deep. Nembhard had a career performance, but he has quietly been shooting this well all postseason, just on lower volume. Nembhard is shooting 56.1% from the field and 48.1% from 3.
Nembhard had only been attempting 10 field goals per game in the playoffs, but he more than doubled that in Game 3. If he takes 15-20 shots again tonight, he can score 17 points, even if Boston defends him tougher, and he has an inefficient game.
However, if he shoots over 50% again, I expect him to top 20 points again and possibly a lot more. You can back him for 20 points at +175 on FanDuel and for 25 points at +600 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
