Yesterday, we began the week with another profitable night, as Ben Sheppard and Naz Reid both cashed their points lines fairly easily off the bench. However, as always, the quest for a sweep continues. Tonight, we begin in Boston, where the Cavaliers will visit the Celtics to tip off their second-round series.
The Cavaliers were able to advance past the Orlando Magic despite not having All-Star center Jarrett Allen for the final three games of the series. Allen may return tonight, but he may not be able to handle the Celtics just yet. He also may have to deal with Jaylen Brown on his drives to the basket.
Meanwhile, we cashed on Dereck Lively II in Game 6, when the Mavericks closed out the Clippers on Friday night. I'll be going back to Lively tonight when his Mavericks take on the Thunder in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinals series.
Read below for my top three NBA player props for Tuesday, May 7.
Jarrett Allen was dominant through his first four postseason games, averaging 17 points and 13.8 rebounds per game. Then, he suffered a rib injury and missed the final three games of the Cavaliers' first-round series against Orlando. Allen is questionable for tonight's game and has said he is still experiencing mobility issues.
Allen averaged about 32 minutes per game both in the regular season and the series against Orlando. If he gives it a go tonight, I would expect a lighter workload for him. Additionally, Boston also will be without its starting Kristaps Porziņģis, likely for the entire series. If Cavs head coach J.B. Bickerstaff opts for a smaller lineup with Evan Mobley, Max Strus and Isaac Okoro, he may not turn to Allen heavily tonight.
When Allen plays 30 minutes or less, he has had less than 25 points and rebounds in 21 of 24 games this season, averaging 20.4 points and rebounds. Allen has also averaged 20.4 points and rebounds in his last seven games against Boston. He has gone under this line in five of those games.
Additionally, Heat center Bam Adebayo went under in three of the five games against Boston in the first round. That was despite Miami being without Jimmy Butler, which called for a bigger scoring role for Adebayo.
Because of his injury and the trends in this matchup, Allen should stay under tonight too.
Jaylen Brown averaged 22.8 points per game in the first round against Miami. Tonight, we need 23, which he only reached twice in that series against the Heat. One of those games was Game 5, when he scored 25 points in roughly three quarters without Porziņģis. As mentioned, Porziņģis will be out tonight, which should lead to more of a green light for Brown.
Whether it is Strus, Okoro, Donovan Mitchell or Sam Merrill guarding him, Brown will have a size advantage that he has usually taken advantage of. Over the last two seasons, he has scored 20 points in six of seven games against the Cavaliers, including 30 in three of them. He has averaged 25.4 points per game in that span, hitting this line in four of them.
Additionally, the Cavaliers gave up 27 points per game to Paolo Banchero and 18.9 points per game to Franz Wagner, Game 7 notwithstanding, in the first round.
Jayson Tatum also has had a lot of success against Cleveland of late, scoring 25 points in six straight meetings. It may be a night where Brown and Tatum combine for over 50 points. Brown's line is a bit lower so I am going with him tonight, with a target number of 25 points. You can also back him for 30 points at +290 on FanDuel.
In the first round, Jonas Valančiūnas averaged 14.5 points and 11 rebounds against the Thunder. However, he was difficult to back knowing head coach Willie Green's propensity to play small. Valančiūnas cashed his points + rebounds line in three of four games in the series, and he only played 12 minutes in the other game.
Dallas also splits its center position, mostly between Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II with Maxi Kleber out for this series. Lively and Gafford have each had big games against the Thunder this season. In December, Lively had 20 and 16 rebounds, while Gafford had 19 points and nine rebounds and then 19 points and 15 rebounds in two games against Oklahoma City after being acquired.
Since the two split time at the center position, their lines are nearly identical, with Gafford's being 15.5 and Lively at 14.5 tonight. It's conceivable that both hit their lines in Game 1, but I am backing Lively.
While Lively has already smashed this number against Oklahoma City, only nine points and six rebounds will get the job done here. He scored 10 points in three of his final four games in the first-round series and had six rebounds in four of the six games. As a result, he hit this number in four of six games while being hooked on 15 in another. He should be able to get 15 points and rebounds if he plays 20 minutes tonight. He is also +750 for a double-double on FanDuel.
