Thursday's NBA action features two more Round 2 playoff games, where both of the home teams enter with a 1-0 series lead. The Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers tip off at 7 p.m. ET, while the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder tip off at 9:30 p.m. ET.
When we get into series formats in basketball, the markets become sharper, the lines form a stronger consensus and home-court pricing is already known from Round 1. To go one step further, in all games besides the first, the rest and travel advantages we see in regular-season spots are neutralized. The Celtics and Thunder both had more rest and less travel before Game 1, and they got the job done, but the Cavaliers and Mavericks find themselves in a stronger spot and needing a bounce-back.
Because these markets are sharp and these pregame factors are neutralized, it becomes better to attack game scripts, matchup advantages and prop markets to find playoff value.
Read below for my top three NBA player props for Thursday, May 9.
This is a really sharp read that I will bet heavily into, but I want to emphasize that I only like this play if Jarrett Allen is active.
The reporting around Allen has been nearly nonexistent. He will go through warmups and remain questionable until 30 minutes prior to tip when teams release starting lineups.
If Allen does indeed play, Mobley Over 0.5 3s at +184 is incredibly value. Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff mentioned after his team shot 42 3-pointers in Game 1 that they need to increase that number, and simultaneously reduce Boston's 45 attempts from deep.
Mobley also made threes in Games 1 and 2 against Orlando, but since he has been covering for Allen at the 5, he hasn't even attempted any. If Allen is back, Mobley will have to go back to offering some floor spacing, in a game in which the coach wants them to shoot from distance.
I would play this for 2-3 units if Allen is in and the line remains the same. Although it still remains below a 50% chance of hitting, the difference in implied probability and expected hit rate would be worth doubling my normal exposure.
I am fading the harsh narratives surrounding perhaps the best offensive player in the game.
People are pointing out that Dončić is hobbled and that Lu Dort is locking him up and has him in the "Dorture Chamber." I think Dončić can score at will against nearly anybody, and although he complains to referees, he is tough as nails and fights through injuries and illnesses often at a high level.
We also some indicators in the total as reasons to play the prop overs. Game 1 opened at 214 and closed around 218.5. The final score would end up going under the original 214, yet we get a reposted 218.5 taking more steam to the over. The smart bettors have faded the last three minutes of Game 1 being nearly scoreless. It was projected 10+ points over the expected total at the start of the fourth before hitting an end of game drought.
If the books are pricing in more scoring, sign me up to grab Dončić's over 30.5 at low vig when I expect him to play heavy minutes with a sense of urgency.
Dallas missing Maxi Kleber is an underrated storyline in this series. The Mavericks simply need some more floor spacing and versatile defense at the forward spots.
P.J. Washington has to be the player to fill that role given the other options on the Mavs. Look for Washington to play intense defense and spend a lot of time on offense waiting for corner kick outs.
He should get over five attempts from 3, and hopefully he knocks two of them down. This is a bet on volume — average efficiency should cover.
