Life is too short to bet unders. If you share that mentality, the opening round of the NBA Playoffs has been brutal. For the first time since at least 2005, unders have started 8-0 in the postseason — going under the total by an average of 15.8 points per game.
Casual bettors tend to wager on the over because it is more fun to cheer for points than defense. But after the low-scoring opening games put a dent in the public’s bankroll, recreational gamblers will be looking to wager on more unders.
It would be unwise to bet the under in every game, but here are three tips to identify NBA Playoff games with potentially profitable unders:
Previous Game Went Under
Since 2005, if a team’s previous game went under, the under in its next playoff game went 314-276-7 (53.2%). This strategy has been most profitable in the first round — 183-139-3 (56.8%) — according to Bet Labs.
One explanation for unders hitting is that the public will expect an offensive bounce back and for teams to score at a higher rate in the following game. Oddsmakers anticipate this reaction and will inflate the lines making it easier for the under to hit.
Line Decreases
If a majority of bettors are naturally going to wager on the over then professional betting action is likely needed for the line to decrease. Since 2005, when the line decreases the under has gone 279-246-8 (53.1%). The more the over/under drops, the more profitable it has been to bet the under:
Big Over/Under
Since 2005, in playoff games with over/unders of 200 or more points the under has gone 217-201-6 (51.9%). The bigger the over/under the easier it is for the under to hit as there is more room for variance in the scoring.
When evaluating an NBA Playoff over/under, it is important to check to see if the previous game went under, if the line has decreased and if there is a high total. If any of the above is true, there could be value betting the under.
