They say the best two words in sports are Game 7, but unless that Game 7 comes during the NBA Finals, there's a Game 1 right around the corner for the winning team. The NBA playoffs are grueling, and after seven games against the same team, no matter how thrilling the victory, there tends to be some hangover going into the next series.
Going back through the past 36 years of NBA playoff data, there have been 88 instances of a team playing Game 1 of a series after playing seven games in their previous series. In those games, the team coming off the seven-game series is 33-55 straight up in Game 1.
Teams coming off a Game 7 have been outscored by 402 points combined over this span, an average -4.5 point differential, and 31 of the 88 teams in this spot have been outscored by double digits. Teams coming off a Game 7 facing a team that did not go seven games are 16-30-1 ATS in Game 1 over the last 20 years.
Game 1 Point Differentials After Game 7
The last team to pull off a win in Game 1 after playing a seven-game series in the previous round was the Boston Celtics, who won outright as 4-point underdogs on the road against the Golden State Warriors in the 2022 NBA Finals.
One would imagine fatigue being the most notable factor for teams playing Game 1 after going to the brink in the previous round, but the data doesn't show that rest makes a significant difference in performance.
Sixty-four of the teams in this spot had just one day of rest between Game 1 and Game 7 and those teams are 26-38 (40%) straight up. But added rest doesn't make teams more likely to win. Teams with two or more days between games are 7-17 (29%) straight up in Game 1.
There's also the series outcome to consider for teams coming off a seven-game series. Teams coming off a series that went to Game 7 are 36-52 in the following series. Winning Game 1 proves to be a key factor for winning the series. Teams in this spot that win Game 1 are 21-12 in the series while teams that lose Game 1 are 15-40 in the series. The last team coming off a seven-game series to win their next series after losing Game 1 was also the Celtics against the Miami Heat in 2022.
Series favorites are just 17-15 in the next round. Only 12 series 'dogs have come off a seven-game series and won their next series, the last team to do it was the Los Angeles Clippers against the Utah Jazz in the 2021 playoffs.
However, those underdogs have been very good after Game 7. The 1990 Portland Trail Blazers, 1995 Houston Rockets, 2004 Detroit Pistons, 2009 Orlando Magic, 2012 Heat, 2018 Cavaliers, and 2019 Toronto Raptors all made the NBA Finals. The Rockets, Pistons, Heat, and Raptors won it all in their respective seasons.
Editor's note: This is an updated version of an article written and researched by Raheem Palmer.
