The 2024 NBA postseason is nearly here, and the Philadelphia 76ers may be the best value on the board.
The Celtics are heavy favorites in the East. The Nuggets are clear favorites in the West.
These are the two best teams. I know it, you know it — and unfortunately, sportsbooks know it too, and have priced both teams accordingly. There's not a ton of futures value in betting Boston or Denver right now.
If the playoffs go chalk and give us Celtics-Nuggets, the window has probably already passed on finding futures value there — though it's worth noting that both 1-seeds have only made the NBA Finals once since 2008, just one of the last 15 seasons.
No, the futures pick NBA bettors should be looking for is the best alternative to Boston or Denver, because injuries happen, sports happen, and the favorites don't always win.
And right now, with Joel Embiid back and looking healthy, the best alternative on the market is the Philadelphia 76ers at +900 to win the East and +3000 to win the title.
Joel Embiid Looks Healthy and Ready To Go
Embiid has played four games since returning from injury, against the Thunder, Heat, Grizzlies, and Pistons. Not exactly a murderer's row, especially since Oklahoma City is undersized and was missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.
Still, you can only play the opponents in front of you, and so far, Embiid has mostly looked like himself.
He's averaging 30.0 points per game since returning, along with 8.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists, and he's shooting a blistering 51/45/88 from the field. The counting numbers are down slightly from his season-long numbers, but that's to be expected in four fewer minutes per game and it's comparing Embiid to an all-time scoring season pace and the clear MVP front-runner when healthy.
We've seen only 87 player seasons in NBA history with a 30-plus PPG average in at least 25 games. Embiid has done that three straight seasons, and he's clearing by margin.
Embiid's 34.8 PPG average currently stands as the 14th-best in NBA history. Pretty good — though it should be noted that 30 PPG seasons don't exactly win a lot of titles. Only Michael Jordan has scored 30 PPG and won a title in the same year since 1975 (and he did it four times).
Still, Embiid's scoring remains historic and doesn't seem to be slowing down in his return. The rebounds are down slightly. He's scoring a bit less efficiently and turning it over more. Those are all signs of rust.
But maybe the most important measure since Embiid's return is his 10.0 free throw attempts per game. The rest of the league has seen a massive dropoff in foul rate while Embiid was out, but he's still getting the same whistle and the same calls so far in his return.
What was already a big free-throw advantage before might be even bigger now.
There's one other pattern worth noting. Embiid played under 30 minutes in two of his first three games back but went 36 on Tuesday night against Detroit. Not the toughest minutes ever, but 37/11/8 in 36 minutes looked an awful lot like the MVP-caliber Embiid we got the first two months of the season.
Compared to past returns from injury, this is about the best we've seen from Embiid.
You probably remembered how awesome Embiid was early on. But do you remember the 76ers being just as dominant?
The 76ers with Embiid Have Been as Good as Any Team All Season
The Sixers are 5-0 since Embiid's return, and with two home games left against Orlando and Brooklyn, they may enter the postseason on an eight-game win streak, at 47-25.
This is really the fourth segment of Philadelphia's season. Look how the season breaks down:
- The Sixers started the year 20-8 through December 22, with Embiid playing all but three of those games — all losses. With Embiid, they played at a 66-win pace.
- Embiid sat on Christmas and missed nine of the next 18 games, and the Sixers dropped to 9-9 in that stretch. They lost the final four games, two without Embiid and two with him playing through injury.
- Embiid missed the next 29 consecutive games. The Sixers went 11-18 without him, a 31-win pace.
- Now that Embiid has returned, the Sixers are 5-0 since.
None of those results are particularly surprising, but it's telling just how stark those results are. With Embiid healthy, the Sixers have played like the best team in the league. With a laboring, injured version, they're a .500 squad. Without him, they're lottery-bound.
But again, I'm not sure you're seeing just how dominant the Sixers were that first stretch of the season with a healthy Embiid, up until Christmas. Let's spell the numbers out a little further.
Before Christmas, the Sixers ranked No. 2 in Offensive Rating (121.5) and No. 3 in Defensive Rating (110.0). They led the league in Net Rating at +11.5, more than two points ahead of Boston and more than double anyone else in the East.
From Christmas forward, Philadelphia has dropped to No. 20 on offense (113.3) and No. 19 on defense (115.3). Their Net Rating has plummeted to -2.1, ranked 20th.
Before Christmas, Philadelphia was the league's best team. Since then, they were 20th.
Those numbers matter because they show just how muddy some of the season-long data and the Sixers' power ratings are. They also show just how badly the Sixers cratered without their MVP.
The offense ranked 9th in Effective Field Goal Percentage before Christmas. That bottomed out to 28th since, near last in the league. Turns out it's bad for your offense to lose an efficient 35 PPG scorer.
The defense has arguably fallen off even further. Philly's Defensive EFG dropped from 5th before Christmas to 14th since, and its Defensive Rebounding Rate fell from 6th to a disastrous 29th. This has arguably been Embiid's best defensive year ever, and the Sixers D has fallen off mightily without their big man.
So without a healthy Embiid, the Sixers have been taking worse shots, giving up better shots, and giving up way more of them. Yeah, that'll drop you from best in the league to 20th!
Embiid was the heavy MVP favorite before his injury. Analysts often make flawed, hypothetical arguments about how valuable a player is because of how bad the team would presumably play without them.
With Embiid, that case is no longer hypothetical. Without Embiid, the Sixers have not even been a playoff team. With him healthy, they've been the best in the league.
Are the 76ers Even Better Now Than They Were Early This Season?
The crazy part about all this is that there's a strong argument to be made that Philadelphia's roster is even better now — maybe a lot better — than it was that early torrid stretch.
Remember, the Sixers started the season with a roster in flux, with James Harden pouting on the sidelines. They traded him a week in, but the roster was still taking shape.
But Philadelphia was quietly one of the winners at the trade deadline, even with Embiid sidelined. The 76ers traded for Buddy Hield and also signed Kyle Lowry on the buyout market.
Hield was one of the splashier additions at the deadline. He's one of the single greatest shooters in NBA history, with four of the 18 seasons in league history with over 270 made 3-pointers. He's a career knockdown 40% shooter from behind the arc.
So far in Philly, Hield hasn't been great. He was terrific his first week but has struggled to find a rhythm or even his regular steady minutes since — though he notably had his best game since his first week Tuesday night with Embiid.
And doesn't that make sense? How in the world do you defend Hield next to Embiid and Tyrese Maxey?
Single team Embiid in the post, that's a bucket. Bring a double and you just left Hield open for three. Manage to cover him, and now Maxey is streaking downhill into all that open space.
There's a reason so many teams wanted to add Buddy Hield. Movement shooters are deadly next to gravity-sucking MVPs like Joel Embiid.
Kyle Lowry obviously isn't the player he once was, but he's an excellent complementary piece. He's a smart, hard-nosed defender, moves the ball well, makes smart veteran decisions, and is a near 40% shooter himself.
There's a third key player in this equation, too: De'Anthony Melton.
Melton is one of the league's finest perimeter defenders, and he's become an excellent shooter himself at 38% on 3s the last four seasons. Melton has barely played in 2024 but returned Tuesday night. It's no coincidence that Philadelphia's defense has cratered in the same span Melton missed along with Embiid. If he's good to go, that's another huge re-addition to this team.
Hield, Lowry, and Melton are 16-gamers. Playoff guys. They're perfect fits around Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Most Improved Player to be Tyrese Maxey. Add in Nic Batum, Kelly Oubre, and a few Paul Reed minutes and we're at a full playoff rotation.
Now we're cooking with gas.
Embiid's Long Injury Layoff Is Buying Us Value — Maybe in Multiple Ways
We still haven't seen much from Embiid, and bettors might be tempted to wait — but that might be leaving value on the table. Embiid's long injury layoff is buying us value on Philadelphia futures.
Recency bias is real, and it's been a long time since Philadelphia dominated the league in November and December. The market is not reflecting anything close to Philadelphia's true upside or power rating.
Of course, that's in part because Philadelphia may well end up in the play-in tournament, but that's likely buying us a little value, too. The fact that the Sixers could lose a play-in and miss the playoffs altogether means books are forced to price that possibility in, making our futures odds longer.
Could the Sixers lose in the play-in? It's possible. But that requires them losing to a Heat or Pacers squad they're demonstrably better than — remember, they just beat the Heat last week — then losing again to the Hawks or Bulls.
Philly could be at home for both of those games, and the Sixers are 21-1 with Embiid against sub-.500 teams, which the Hawks and Bulls both are. Philly would have to not get the 6-seed, then lose to Indiana or Miami, then lose at home to Chicago or Atlanta to miss the playoffs. I give that under a 5% chance of happening.
Of course, just escaping the play-in doesn't solve everything. That still leaves Philadelphia as the 7- or 8-seed, potentially facing East favorites Boston or Milwaukee in the first round.
That doesn't sound great, but chances are good the Sixers will have to go through those teams anyway. Giannis Antetokounmpo is injured and may not be ready for the start, or maybe any, of the first round. Philly should roll in that series if Antetokounmpo is limited or out.
As for Boston? Again, the Sixers are going to have to beat them sometime. Why not do it now, while Embiid is most rested and at his healthiest?
The current play-in format has been in place the last three seasons. During that stretch, 7-seeds are 2-4 straight up in Game 1 against the rested, favored, at-home 2-seed. And 8-seeds are also 2-4 SU in Game 1 against the heavily favored 1-seeds. These underdogs that just won their way in are riding momentum against rusty favorites.
If you're Philadelphia and have to beat Boston anyway, would you rather face the Celtics in a month after they've won eight of nine games across five weeks and come in rested and ready after you just battled a couple of tough opponents for six or seven games? Or just take them down right now, with Embiid and Melton rested and healthy?
And that's the final piece — what if Embiid being out this long actually helps the Sixers?
Embiid's best playoff run came in 2021. He played only 51 regular season games that year, missing most of March in a shortened season, his fewest games since his debut season. The Sixers came a Ben Simmons layup away from the Eastern Conference Finals, and Embiid posted his best postseason numbers. If Simmons doesn't have a brain fart, maybe the Sixers even beat the Bucks and Suns and win the title.
Is it a coincidence that Embiid's best individual playoff run came the same season he missed a full month and rested just before the grueling postseason run? I don't think so. We saw a similar benefit for LeBron James and Anthony Davis after months off before their bubble title run.
It's entirely possible Embiid actually enters this postseason healthier and more rested than ever in his career. If he's truly back and healthy, this knee injury might have been a blessing in disguise.
For Once, Philadelphia's Upside Outweighs the Risk Factor
When betting favorites, we're forced to pay for mean and median outcomes. But Philadelphia is currently being priced as a long shot at +3000 to win the title at bet365.
The East is inarguably more open than the West, possibly a one-team race pending Antetokounmpo's health. You want your sleeper in the East. The second-best East team is one Boston upset away from the Finals. Boston's status as the heavy favorite is leaving value for someone else.
With odds this long, we can bet on tail-end outcomes and ignore the median outcome. The most likely ending to our bet is probably Embiid not matching his early production or getting hurt again, Philly never gelling, and a lost bet. So it goes. Most futures lose.
But the upside here is immense. If Embiid is healthy, the Sixers look as good as any team — maybe even including Boston and Denver. We've never seen a 7- or 8-seed NBA champion, but two of them made the NBA's final four just one year ago and one played at home tied 1-1 in the Finals.
The 76ers are so much better than last year's Heat or Lakers. Joel Embiid can be the best player on the court any night in any series. This roster unquestionably has championship upside.
Don't wait around. Philadelphia's price only shortens with a better seed, a softer playoff bracket, or more bad injury news on Antetokounmpo or another star.
Philadelphia is +900 to win the East at bet365, implied 10%. The Sixers are +3000 to win the title, implied 3.2% and implying a less than one-in-three chance that Philly would win the Finals if it does get there.
Both of those numbers are badly mispriced.
Embiid's health will always be a wildcard, but most years we have to take on that risk without the upside. This year that equation is flipped in our favor. Low investment — high upside.
Now is the time to bet Embiid and Philadelphia 76ers futures. Don't wait around and miss out.
