Here's NBA Playoff picks and predictions for Friday, May 10, including how to bet Knicks vs. Pacers and Nuggets vs. Wolves.
Knicks vs. Pacers
The Knicks' pets' heads are falling off. Julius Randle is out for the season. Mitchell Robinson is out for the season. OG Anunoby is out for Game 3. Bojan Bogdanovic is out for the season. Jalen Brunson is questionable for Game 3.
This is a team that wants to play eight guys max, with their starters playing 40-plus minutes. Two starters and two of the three bench guys are out.
The bill for Tom Thibodeau is coming due.
But is this the spot? The spread opened Pacers -4.5 and immediately got hit. I played Pacers -5, recognizing the momentum of the line. But now that the line has settled at -7.5, is there value?
The injuries are a finger trap. On the one hand, the Knicks lose Robinson on the glass and as a rim protector and Anunoby as a scorer and defender. Anunoby is +14 in net rating through two games in this series.
Except this is the Knicks; they're driven by some supernatural force that makes them stronger the more adversity they face. They're 6-2 in the playoffs, despite being outplayed for the majority of the minutes.
New York somehow being in this game — despite all the injuries — as Josh Hart hits his fourth 3-pointer seems like the most Knicks outcome here.
That said, the Knicks' Game 2 win was bizarre. They shot 67% on contested shots, via NBA.com's admittedly wonky tracking data, compared to 44% uncontested.
Now, the Pacers' lackluster defense makes those contests less than impactful and provides more rhythm, but that's still ripe for some regression on the road.
The other factor here is the adjustment cycle. Rick Carlisle comes from a class of coaches who try to hold off on making adjustments until they're necessary so you don't get caught running out of them.
Carlisle is smart and accomplished. He knows that the Pacers have been better with T.J. McConnell (and Obi Toppin) on the floor.
Alongside some defensive changes — like not trying to play on top of shooters coming off screens (which led to cutting and resulted in help defense just leaving other shooters more open) — Carlisle is likely to switch up his game plan and rotations.
I'm not going to suggest that the Pacers can execute a good defensive game plan, but they can do better. The Knicks will do what they always do: play physical and try and run the ball down your throat. They have to do this with their missing personnel, but their role players will likely miss more shots.
The value on Indy at -7.5 is largely gone; you're chasing too much steam. I make the Pacers -3.5 before the injuries. With the injuries, that's roughly -7.5.
Myles Turner had a horrible Game 2, but he's shooting 33% from 3 on the road and 50% at home in these playoffs.
With no Anunoby, the Knicks are likely to allow more perimeter penetration, which will force Isaiah Hartenstein to collapse the paint and not stay with Turner as much.
I'll play Turner over 1.5 3-pointers at -165 (bet365) and 3+ 3s +200 (FanDuel)
Picks: Myles Turner Over 1.5 3-Pointers (-165), 3+ 3PM (+200)
Nuggets vs. Wolves
Well, this is it for Denver.
There's no coming back from down 0-3. No team has done it, period, end dot.
The Nuggets faced a must-win in Game 2 and got absolutely hammered off the floor. They slunk out of the arena with most skipping media availability. Jamal Murray threw heat pads and towels on the floor. Nikola Jokic admitted that he didn't know if the team would respond in Game 3.
It's all bad.
But here's the thing.
It's just 0-2. If the Nuggets win Game 3, the whole series flips. The Nuggets instantly put the pressure back on the Wolves. They just have to win one basketball game, and the probable end of this era of Nuggets basketball is postponed.
Denver has had four days off. That's plenty of time to not just think about the loss but to move past it.
Maybe these four days won't make Murray healthier or magically invent a player to defend Anthony Edwards. But if the Nuggets' biggest problem was their mental toughness in the first two games after thinking they could mess around and win like they did vs. the Lakers, then they're in good shape.
Responding with more toughness in Game 3 won't make shots fall or overcome the interior defense on Jokic from Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, but it's a prerequisite that was missing from Game 1 and 2.
It's not like the Nuggets can't beat the Wolves; they did it twice this season (albeit with various injuries on both sides).
Can they win this game in Minnesota for what's truly the biggest game in the franchise's history?
Maybe not.
I bet the Nuggets in Game 1 based on their history of Game 1s. I bet the Nuggets in Game 2 based on the history of teams bouncing back down 0-1. I try not to fall for the same trick, and it would be easy to sit this one out.
But I'm betting on Denver +4.5.
It's not faith, I don't believe in those things. It's not my model that makes this Wolves -4.5 on the dot. The trends don't match up with a Denver play.
But I'm a big believer that sports gives us plot twists; it's why we watch. Otherwise, the results would be boring when everything happens as it should. That blade cuts both ways, sometimes the unexpected thing is exactly what should happen.
Denver isn't due. The Wolves have presented tactical advantages Denver has struggled to solve, but I also think it's very likely that someway, somehow, Denver is in this game late with its season and its reign as champs on the line.
I'll bet Denver +4.5.
But I mean it, if they lose this one, I'm seriously not betting the Nuggets in Game 4.
Probably.
Also, I'm taking Nickeil Alexander Walker over 1.5 3PM at -115. He's been open this entire series and will continue to be so in Game 3.
Picks: Nuggets +4.5 | Nickeil Alexander-Walker 2+ 3PM -115 (FanDuel)
