The 2024 NBA Playoffs are less than two weeks away. Here's what you need to know about how the NBA postseason picture is shaping up, including some key things to watch and potential tiebreaker scenarios down the stretch.
Note: NBA Playoff seedings mentioned below are through April 8.
NBA Playoff Picture 2024: Scenarios, Magic Numbers & Predictions
Eastern Conference
The Celtics have already clinched the 1-seed in the NBA Playoffs. They have home court throughout the playoffs (NBA Finals included).
That race has been over since January. The Celtics are the best regular-season team in the league this year and one of the best we've ever seen.
The "Simple Rating System" (SRS) is a pretty, well, simple metric. It measures point differential (how much you win by) against your strength of schedule. The Celtics currently have the fifth-best SRS in NBA history. The top four teams won the title, so yeah, they're in pretty good company.
The 2-5 Seeds are Liquid
That heat you're feeling is from the Milwaukee Bucks' late-season meltdown. Milwaukee fell to just one game ahead of the Magic and Knicks for the 2-seed in the loss column with its loss to the Knicks on Sunday. The Bucks still own the tiebreaker over Orlando and New York, and the one team they don't have the tiebreaker against, the Cavaliers, suffered their own devastating loss as they blew a 26-point lead to the Clippers on Sunday.
The Cavs and Bucks split the season series 2-2, but Cleveland has clinched the tiebreaker on division record. (Notably, this would still be in play for a split, and the Cavs would have the edge in the conference tiebreaker, but they lost to the Pacers in the In-Season Tournament (IST). So, the IST games could literally wind up deciding home court.)
The Knicks are one game back in the loss column from third and two back from second. OG Anunoby has returned before the playoffs. This is the most interesting seeding to me.
If the Knicks can get out of the Celtics' bracket, I think there's value in them to win the Eastern Conference. They match up well with the Bucks with their combination of tough defense, Jalen Brunson's attacking pick-and-roll drop coverage, shooting and rebounding. They bounced Cleveland last year, and while I would hope the Cavs have learned a thing or two since then, you still have to think it favors the Knicks.
The Magic are unbelievably in an even better position. Orlando plays the Bucks twice this week. If they win one of the matchups, they clinch a split of the season series. The next tiebreaker is conference record, which the Magic would also tie Milwaukee in. The next is "record vs. playoff teams," and Orlando currently has the lead there. That can change depending on who winds up in or out.
Sunday's results could change a lot for the Magic as well. If they have a chance in the last game to clinch second or fall to third, with the 76ers and Heat locked into the 7-8 play-in, and Indiana locked in the 6-seed, does Orlando lose that one to get Orlando? The problem is that with New York so close, a loss might slip Orlando to fifth. That might not be bad for the first round — it could mean the Cavaliers or Pacers — but it would also put the Magic in the Celtics' side of the bracket.
The Magic might open as series favorites vs. the 76ers or the Heat, but likely close as 'dogs before tipoff of Game 1. Even the Pacers would be a tough matchup for a team that hasn't made a postseason appearance and features the 23rd-ranked offense on Dunks & Threes (schedule-adjusted).
Thanks to the Cavs' slide, Indiana has a real shot at moving up. The Pacers' win over the Heat dramatically changed their fortunes. Indiana controls its destiny for the 5-seed; it is one back of the Cavaliers, play them this week and a win would clinch the tiebreaker over Cleveland.
The Pacers also have the tiebreaker over the Knicks. It would require the Bucks' four-game losing streak to move to seven, but if they keep disintegrating, the Pacers also have the tiebreaker over Milwaukee.
The order is important. Indiana has had Milwaukee's number this season. The playoffs are a different matter, but the Pacers might genuinely prefer a matchup with the Bucks over one against the Knicks or Magic. Indiana has success against top offenses that aren't great defensively, and struggles more with great defenses that struggle offensively. (The Knicks are balanced on both.)
The Knicks' preferred stack is likely a 3-seed vs. the Magic or Pacers, with the Bucks in the second round. The Cavs would likely prefer the Pacers to the other teams, but right now there are a number of concerning matchups for Cleveland.. The Cavs have given the Bucks some trouble over the last two seasons and are familiar with them. Cleveland would be dogs even with home court, but it's at least an interesting matchup.
There are no good answers for the Bucks. They either get the Pacers, the Heat (like Indiana, a problematic matchup), the Knicks, who have a matchup advantage with Jalen Brunson, or the Sixers, who have the best team with Joel Embiid back. Milwaukee's preferred stack has to be a 2-7 matchup against the Pacers, with Cavs-Magic in the 3-6, but that scenario became very unlikely after Indiana's win over Miami on Sunday.
There is a very strong chance that Milwaukee will face either the Heat or Sixers in the first round. Yikes.
The 6-Seed Clump
Miami, Indiana and Philadelphia are all bunched together in the 6-7-8 range.
Two weeks ago, we told you this could get weird. It's gotten weird.
Embiid returned and the Sixers are suddenly heating up, winners of four straight and stabilizing.
The Pacers' win over the Heat Sunday was massive. Not only did they knock the Heat back a game behind them in the loss column, but they clinched the tiebreaker over the Heat and secured the three-way tiebreaker if the Heat, Sixers and Pacers finish tied.
As a result, Indiana is in the spot described above with a pretty good shot at not only escaping the play-in but maybe finishing in the 4-5 or higher.
Miami is where it was last year. The Heat were -0.3 in point differential last season and are currently +1.6 — over the net-neutral line, but not by much. They were six games over .500 last season and are seven games over .500 this season.
They are a slightly better version of the team they were last season, meaning they are still very dangerous. A Play-In-to-Finals run is — just like last season — improbable, but more possible for them than other teams in their profile and position.
The Sixers and Heat split their season series 2-2. Miami has the lead for the conference record tiebreaker. There is a chance the Sixers can catch them in that category, but they trail in the next category (record vs. playoff teams) as well (depending on who gets in).
We are unlikely to know until at least Friday who is where in this clump.
The "Just Happy to be Here" Duo
Chicago-Atlanta is going to be the 9-10 matchup in the East. You can just go ahead and mark that in pen.
These teams are within a game of each other in the loss column for the 9-seed. That matters more than you'd think. The 10-seed is 0-6 in making the playoffs in three seasons of Play-In tournaments, while the 9-seed is 3-3.
You might make it out if something bonkers happens to the Pacers, Heat or 76ers in a one-game environment, but you're almost definitely not winning two road games when you have this kind of profile. Regardless, the 9-10 spots (even if they make it out) would be nothing but fodder for the Celtics.
The Bulls have the tiebreaker over the Hawks. If Chicago gets a win and two losses from the Hawks, it might be able to shut it down by midweek, get healthy and focus on the play-in tournament, scouting for both Atlanta and whoever falls in the Pacers-Sixers-Heat trifecta. Chicago's magic number for the 9-seed is three.
Western Conference
The Top-of-the-West Round Robin of Doom
It's exciting and crazy that with five games remaining, we don't know who the 1- or 2-seed will be in the Western Conference.
The Nuggets and Timberwolves are tied in the loss column, the Thunder are one game back after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams missed their East Coast road trip due to injuries. SGA is expected back for the Thunder's close to the season.
The Wolves own tiebreakers over the Thunder and Nuggets. They split the season series with the Thunder, split the division record (or can win it outright with a win vs. the Nuggets on Wednesday) and own the third tiebreaker (conference record). If OKC catches up in conference record, it would just pass the Wolves in overall record.
The Thunder own the tiebreaker over the Nuggets in the season series (3-1).
The Nuggets have the easier remaining schedule with Utah, San Antonio and Memphis. However, they have one tough matchup Wednesday (vs. the Wolves), which could decide the 1-seed.
Those three teams (Nuggets, Wolves, Thunder) will face one of these teams in the first round: Warriors, Lakers, Suns, Pelicans or Kings.
Have I mentioned the West is tough?
Denver doesn't need to worry about whoever it faces.
The Lakers have hung with Denver, but have lost eight straight. The Mavericks present problems, but the Nuggets would be heavy favorites nonetheless. The Suns have won two straight against the Nuggets (in Denver), but again, Denver would be big favorites. The Kings also won the season series against the Nuggets.
Denver is 6-7 this season vs. teams likely to finish in the 6- or 7-seed (Suns, Pelicans, Kings, Mavericks). But fully healthy and engaged, Denver is still the best in the West.
The Thunder need to stay as far away from the Lakers as possible. The goal for OKC, the youngest team in the league, should be to advance as far as possible and avoid a disappointing first-round exit.
The Lakers are best suited to knock them out with their size. The Thunder will be challenged but still have big advantages over the Mavericks, Suns, Kings and Pelicans. It should be noted the Thunder are 1-2 against the Kings.
Also notable is that after their slide, the Thunder are much less likely to play the Lakers. LA is unlikely to finish seventh and the Thunder are less likely to get the 1-seed.
The Timberwolves are in a sneaky good spot. They might wind up with the 1-seed, and they don't have to fear the Lakers the way other teams do because of their size and defense. They have the best record vs. the other 11 teams in contention and have proven there's not a really bad matchup out there for them.
Home-court advantage would be great, mostly to avoid going to Denver (and playing in altitude) in a potential Conference Finals clash. Minnesota is in a great spot if it can get Karl-Anthony Towns back at some point. Towns went through pre-game shooting Sunday.
The 4-5 Matchup Is Nearly Locked
The Clippers are up two in the loss column on the Mavericks and own the tiebreaker. Their magic number for the 4-seed is two. They are unlikely to climb higher. Their magic number for no-worse-than-fifth is one, and OKC's magic number for no-worse-than-third is one.
Dallas' furious comeback to beat the Rockets in overtime was huge. Their magic number for the fifth seed is two with their tiebreaker over Phoenix.
You can write this one in pen: the Mavericks and Clippers will face off in the first-round for the third time in five seasons.
Here's Where Everything Goes Berserk
Here's the tiebreaker chart. The first number is how many games are in the season series, the second figure is the season series record for the team in the left-hand column. Green means they've clinched, gray means they've lost it and blue means it has split.
The Warriors lost the tiebreaker to the Suns. Golden State split vs. the Kings and has games against the Lakers and the Pelicans to decide.
The Lakers have the tiebreaker over the Suns, have lost it to the Kings and have games to decide vs. the Warriors and Pelicans.
The Pelicans have the tiebreaker over the Kings, have lost it to the Suns and have one game left to decide vs. the Lakers.
The Suns have the tiebreaker over the Warriors and Pelicans, have lost it to the Lakers and have one game left vs. the Kings.
The Kings have the tiebreaker over the Lakers, have lost to the Pelicans and Rockets, split with the Warriors and have a crucial game left vs. the Suns to decide.
Thanks to the Kings' devastating run of injuries, the Lakers have a real chance to get out of the ninth spot and get two chances at a playoff spot. They lost the season series to the Kings and fell back a game in the loss column Sunday. There's a very real chance the Lakers sneak into the 8-seed and face a Pelicans team they have destroyed several times this season. But the Kings still control destiny thanks to the tiebreaker and a one-game lead.
The Warriors are one back in the loss column of the Lakers (and have a chance at the tiebreaker). The top 10 in the West is locked; Houston was eliminated from playoff contention with its loss to Dallas on Sunday.
