The NBA playoffs are less than a month away. Here's what you need to know about how the postseason picture is shaping up, including some key things to watch for and potential tiebreaker scenarios down the stretch.
Eastern Conference
The Boston Celtics have already clinched the 1-seed in the East, currently sitting 11 games up on the Milwaukee Bucks.
That race has been been over since January. The Celtics are the best regular-season team in the league this year and one of the best we've ever seen.
"Simple Rating System" is a pretty, well, simple metric. It measures point differential (how much you win by) against your strength of schedule. The Celtics currently have the fourth-best SRS in NBA history. The top three teams won the title and the fifth team won the title. So yeah, pretty good company.
The 2-4 Seeds are Liquid
The Bucks are up two in the loss column on the Cavaliers thanks to the spate of injuries Cleveland has suffered, with Donovan Mitchell's nasal fracture the latest malady. All of a sudden, the Knicks have climbed to the 3-seed.
The Cavs and Bucks split the season series 2-2, but Cleveland has clinched the tiebreaker on division record. (Notably, this would still be in play for a split, and the Cavs would have the edge in the conference tiebreaker, but they lost to the Pacers in the In-Season Tournament. So the IST games could literally wind up deciding home court.)
The Knicks are half a game up on the Cavs and surging, now only one game back in the loss column from the Bucks for the 2-seed. Mitchell Robinson returned this week and Julius Randle is also working out. OG Anunoby will likely return before the playoffs. This is the most interesting seeding to me. If the Knicks can get out of the Celtics' bracket, I think there's value in them to win the Eastern Conference. They match up well with the Bucks with their combination of tough defense, Jalen Brunson's attacking pick-and-roll drop coverage, shooting and rebounding. They bounced the Cavs last year, and while I would hope the Cavs have learned a thing or two since then, you still have to think it favors the Knicks.
The Magic, unbelievably, aren't far behind in the standings. They are four back in the loss column from the 2-seed, which is a bit much with 10 to play, but they are absolutely in range of the 3-seed. It will likely not matter as they don't match up well with either of the top seeds, but a 3-6 matchup might give them a series against Indiana, and Orlando is considerably more likely to make it out of the first round in that scenario than a 4-5 matchup vs. the Knicks or Cavaliers.
But it's important to note that while the Pacers are just two back of the Magic for the 5-seed, Milwaukee, Cleveland, New York and Orlando will almost definitely be the 2-5 seeds in some order.
The order here is important. Indiana has had Milwaukee's number this season. The playoffs are a different matter, but the Pacers might genuinely prefer a matchup with the Bucks over one vs. the Knicks or Magic. Indiana has success against top offenses that aren't great defensively, and struggle more with great defenses that struggle offensively. (The Knicks are balanced on both.)
The Knicks' preferred stack is likely a 3-seed vs. the Magic or Pacers, with the Bucks in the second round. Cleveland likely prefers Indiana in the 3-6 or 2-7. The Cavs have given the Bucks some trouble the last two seasons and are familiar with them. They would be 'dogs even with home court but it's at least an interesting matchup. Milwaukee is likely hoping for a Joel Embiid-less 76ers in the 2-7. Miami would be more than a little frightening, given the recent history.
The 6-seed Clump
Miami, Indiana, and Philadelphia are all bunched together in the 6-7-8 range. This could get weird.
Embiid practiced last week. That news has somehow just coasted under the radar. If he returns, the 76ers instantly become a 2/3-seed-seed caliber team in the 6-8 spot. Whether they can make any noise with Embiid fresh off knee surgery is a different question, but they will immediately become a terrifying first-round opponent.
Miami is just where it was last year. The Heat were -0.3 in point differential last season and are currently +0.7 — over the net-neutral line but not by much. They were six games over .500 last season and are six games over .500 this season. They are a very slightly better version of the team they were last season, meaning they are still very dangerous. A play-in-to-Finals run is — just like last season — improbable but more possible for them than other teams in their profile and position.
The Pacers have slid. Tyrese Haliburton has not been the same player since returning from injury and is clearly trying to make it to 65 games for All-NBA eligibility. He might honestly need to shut it down with a play-in spot secured after he reaches 65 games; he needs to play four more games at 20 minutes each to reach eligibility.
The "Just Happy to be Here" Duo
Chicago-Atlanta is going to be the 9-10 matchup in the East. You can just go ahead and mark that in pen. The Nets are six back in the loss column of the 10-seed and have shown zero interest in making a push, and the Bulls are still four games back from the 76ers for the 8-seed. They're just not good enough to close that gap with 10 games to go.
These teams are within a game of each other in the loss column for the 9-seed. That matters more than you'd think. The 10-seed is 0-6 in making the playoffs in three seasons of play-in tournaments, while the 9-seed is 3-3. You might make it out if something bonkers happens with the Pacers, Heat or 76ers in a one-game environment, but you're almost definitely not winning two road games when you have this kind of profile. Regardless, the 9-10 spots (even if they make it out) would be nothing but fodder for the 1-seed Celtics.
Western Conference
The Top-of-the-West Round Robin of Doom
It's exciting and crazy that with 10 games remaining, we don't know who the 1-seed or 2-seed will be in the West.
The Nuggets, Thunder and Timberwolves are tied in the loss column. Denver has nine games remaining, while Oklahoma City and Minnesota have 10.
OKC is done with its season series vs. the Nuggets and Timberwolves. The Thunder own the tiebreaker over the Nuggets (3-1 season series) and are tied with the Timberwolves in a division-record tiebreaker.
The Timberwolves and Nuggets play twice in the next week, starting with Friday's game in Denver. Those games are quite honestly the most important games left in the regular season for any team, based on the history of top seeds in the playoffs and the advantage of home court in the postseason.
If the Nuggets win both games, they clinch the tiebreaker over the Timberwolves, and Minnesota would also lose the tiebreaker to the Thunder.
If the Nuggets and Timberwolves split the two games, Minnesota clinches the tiebreaker over Denver thanks to a better division record. The Timberwolves also clinch a tie with the Thunder on the first two tiebreakers, and they have a big lead in conference record. The Timberwolves almost definitely clinch the tiebreaker over both teams if they just get one game against Denver.
If the Timberwolves win both games, they clinch the tiebreaker over both Denver and OKC.
Those three teams will face off in the first round vs. one of these teams: Warriors, Lakers, Suns, Pelicans, Kings, Mavericks or Rockets.
Have I mentioned the West is tough?
Denver doesn't need to worry about whoever it faces. The Lakers have hung with them but have lost eight straight to the champs. The Mavericks give them problems but the Nuggets will be heavy favorites nonetheless. The Suns have won two straight vs. the Nuggets (in Denver), but again, Denver will be big favorites. The Kings also won the season series vs. the Nuggets. Denver is 6-7 this season vs. teams likely to finish in the 6- or 7-seed (Suns, Pelicans, Kings, Mavericks). But fully healthy and engaged, Denver is still the best in the West.
The Thunder honestly need to stay as far away from the Lakers as possible. The goal for OKC, the youngest team in the league this season, should be to advance as far as possible and avoid a disappointing first-round exit. The Lakers are best suited to knock them out with their size, while the Thunder will be challenged but still have big advantages over the Mavericks, Suns, Kings and Pelicans. It should be noted that the Thunder are 2-4 vs. the Kings and Mavericks.
The Timberwolves are in a sneaky, really good spot here. They might wind up in the 1-seed and they don't have to fear the Lakers the way other teams do because of their size and defense. They have the best record vs. the other 11 teams in contention and have proven there's not a really bad matchup for them. Home court would be great, mostly to avoid going to Denver's altitude in a potential conference finals appearance. But the Timberwolves are in a great spot if they can get Karl-Anthony Towns back at some point.
The 4-5 Matchup Looked Set Until it Wasn't
It looked like the Clippers were almost certainly going to be the 4-seed, but they started sliding. They are 4-6 over their last 10 and haven't played well since the All-Star break. Their win vs. the 76ers on Wednesday stopped the bleeding, but it's still dicey. The Clippers are 2.5 games up on the 7-seed, so a playoff spot seems likely (the magic number is eight, pending tiebreaker).
They have the tiebreaker over the Mavericks and Kings and are up 2-0 in season series on the Suns with two to play, plus a number of ways to win the tiebreaker even if the Suns win the final two matchups.
New Orleans has surged, which made its loss to the Thunder at home this week that much tougher. The Pelicans are live to get the 4-seed thanks to tiebreaker over the Clippers, but they can also easily slide to the 8-seed. Their magic number for the top six is still eight.
Here's Where Everything Goes Berserk
Four losses separate the Pelicans in the 5-seed from the Lakers in the 9-seed. That's a lot with 10 games or fewer left in the season, but there are also three teams in between.
Here's the tiebreaker chart. The first number is how many games are in the season series, the second figure is the season series record for the team in the left-hand column. Green means they've clinched, gray means they've lost it and blue means it has split.
The Mavericks have the tiebreaker vs. the Lakers and Suns, split with the Pelicans and have games against the Warriors, Rockets and Kings to decide the tiebreaker.
The Warriors have the tiebreaker over the Rockets (significant; we'll get to that later), have lost it to the Suns, split vs. the Kings, and have games against the Mavericks, the Lakers, and the Pelicans to decide.
The Lakers have the tiebreaker over the Suns, have lost it to the Mavericks and the Kings, split with the Rockets and have games to decide vs. the Warriors and Pelicans.
The Pelicans have the tiebreaker over the Kings, split with the Mavericks and Rockets, and have games left to decide vs. the Lakers and Suns.
The Suns have the tiebreaker over the Warriors, have lost to the Mavericks and Lakers, split with the Rockets, and have games against the Pelicans and Kings to decide.
The Kings have the tiebreaker over the Lakers, have lost to the Pelicans and Rockets, split with the Warriors and have games against the Mavericks and Suns to decide.
Also wrapped up in this is the Southwest Division winner. The Pelicans and Mavericks are tied in season series, so the next tiebreaker is division record. The Mavericks are 9-5 with two games left (both vs. Houston), while the Pelicans are 9-6 with one game left (vs. the Spurs).
Why does this matter? Because if you are in a multi-team tie, division winner is the first tiebreaker. Say the Pelicans, Mavericks and Kings tie for 5-6-7. The division winner would get the 5-seed outright, while the tiebreaker winner between the other two would get the 6-seed, leaving the last team in the play-in. Surprise, division winner matters!
If the Mavericks go 2-0 vs. the Rockets, they clinch the tiebreaker over the Pelicans. If they go 1-1 and the Pelicans lose to the Spurs, the Mavericks win the tiebreaker over the Pelicans. If the Mavericks go 1-1 and the Pelicans beat the Spurs, it goes to conference record and that's too close to call. If the Mavericks go 0-2 and the Pelicans lose to the Spurs, it goes to conference record, and that's too close to call. If the Mavericks go 0-2 and the Pelicans beat the Spurs, the Pelicans win the tiebreaker outright.
The Lakers will likely need to finish 7-2 at worst to hope to get out of the 9-seed. They lose the tiebreaker to the Mavericks and Kings, but they have it vs. the Suns. That's the team they want to root against the most. Phoenix has a tough closing schedule but got a huge win to go its way against Denver on Wednesday.
The Warriors are two back of the Lakers (and have chance at the tiebreaker) and just one game ahead of the Rockers (though the Warriors have clinched the tiebreaker there).
It is going to be extremely close whether the Warriors can hold off the surging Rockets, and that's just to see if they can get the 10-seed. Again, 10-seeds are 0-6 in making it out of the play-in tournament.
