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Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in NBA Playoffs slate.
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Jaylen Brown More Than 24.5 Points
In the postseason, Jaylen Brown has averaged 26.7 points per game after averaging a nearly identical 26.6 points in the regular season. He has surpassed this projection in four of six games this postseason. In three of those games, he scored 30 points and finished with 29 in the other.
A matchup against Philadelphia is a prime example of where having both Brown and Jayson Tatum can make Boston so difficult to defend. Tatum is the focal point of the opponent's game plan. Against Philadelphia, Tatum will likely be defended by a trio of P.J. Tucker, Jalen McDaniels and Tobias Harris.
That means Brown, who is 6-foot-6, will draw Philadelphia's smaller perimeter defenders in De'Anthony Melton and Tyrese Maxey. He and Tatum both will likely look to hunt James Harden on switches as well. Brown scored more than 25 points in two of three regular season meetings against Philadelphia and left the other game early due to injury. I expect his success against the Sixers to continue.
Kevin Durant More Than 8 Rebounds
In the postseason, Kevin Durant is averaging 8.7 rebounds per game. He has had at least six rebounds in every and hit this projection in three of six postseason matchups. In Game 1 against Denver, Durant soared past this projection with 14 rebounds, and Phoenix will need him to continue to crash the glass.
Suns center DeAndre Ayton has to deal with Nikola Jokic, and in Game 1, he lost that battle handily. Jokic scored 24 points and grabbed 19 rebounds while Ayton recorded 14 points and seven rebounds. While Ayton is locked up with Jokic, the Suns will have to rebound as a committee to compensate. Durant is the second-tallest Sun in the rotation behind Ayton and should have his fair share of opportunities.
Per NBAStats, Durant converted all 14 of his rebound chances in Game 1. It is unlikely that he does that again in Game 2, but I would not complain if he did. If he gets 14 rebound chances again tonight, we need him to convert slightly over half to meet this projection. Considering he has converted 66.7% of his rebounding chances this postseason, I feel confident about him getting more than eight tonight.
