The weekend doesn’t wait, and neither do we. Friday’s NBA slate kicks off the chaos early with Celtics at Magic at 7:00 p.m. ET (brace yourself, Orlando’s fighting for its life), followed by Pacers-Bucks Game 3 at 8:00 p.m. ET — because nothing says high-stakes basketball like Milwaukee in full desperation mode before dinner.
But the headliner? That’s the late-night rumble in Minneapolis. Lakers at Timberwolves, 9:30 p.m. ET, a matchup that’s equal parts heavyweight bout and psychological experiment: will the Lakers show up before halftime? Will the Wolves close without Karl-Anthony Towns setting the arena on fire (figuratively)?
We've got the best bets for every angle — early tips, late-night fades, first halves, second halves, and the ever-delightful “please just hit one more three” player props.
Let’s dig in.
NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks, Predictions for Friday, April 25
🎯 Kyle Murray (RotoGrinders)
Ja Morant Over 30.5 Points
“I have him for 29 points and 8.2 assists… so I’m almost going over this number on points alone.”
• Ja played 40 minutes last game, and Kyle projected him for 38 minutes this time.
• 🔥 Kyle believes if Ja gets 41-42 minutes in a close game, “he crushes this number or at least has a good chance to.”
Austin Reaves Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists
“When I project him for 40 minutes, I have him at six assists, 5.2 rebounds.”
• Reaves played 43 minutes last game — Kyle expects 41-42 minutes again in a tight spread game.
• 🏀 Rates aren’t phenomenal, but pure floor time makes this prop attractive.
Luka Doncic Over 37.5 Points + Assists
“I’ve got him projected for 34.2 points and 8.6 assists.”
• 📈 Kyle emphasized Luka’s pure scoring upside, even with playmaking slightly dampened playing alongside LeBron and Reaves.
• The line is comparable to Cade’s, but Luka’s ceiling is higher in Kyle’s view.
Payton Pritchard Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
“I’ve got him projected for 16.5 points, 3.5 assists, 3.9 rebounds.”
• With Jason Tatum doubtful, Pritchard played 33 minutes last game, and Kyle projects 30+ minutes again.
• 🧠 Even in a slow-paced game (total 196), Pritchard’s usage spikes without Tatum.
💥 Michael Fiddle
Bucks -5 vs Pacers (Game 3)
“I love the Bucks tomorrow… Bucks minus five is the current number. Probably still playable.”
• 🏀 Fiddle highlighted market movement on this spread, noting it’s headed towards -6. He emphasized desperation angles driving price shifts across multiple playoff series:
“You have the Lakers… the Pistons… the Clippers — all these lines moved drastically away from results, pricing in desperation.”
• Fiddle believes the market wants bettors on the Pacers, but the money is backing Milwaukee.
• He projected plus 400 for the Bucks to win the series as a correlated value play.
Bucks-Pacers Over 230.5 (Game 3)
“I think the over might be worth a small play in that game as well.”
• 📈 Fiddle recommended half a unit on the total while leaning three-quarters on the spread.
• He pointed out home role players shooting better as a factor:
“I don’t know if playoff Nembhard is gonna do the same damage in Milwaukee, but I think the role players shoot better at home.”
• This aligns with his broader playoff view: offenses bounce back at home after two road losses.
🎙️ Matt Moore
Magic Moneyline (+185)
“I’m gonna be on Magic plus 185… it’s moving.”
• 🔄 Matt noted market movement bouncing back toward Orlando after an initial bump toward Boston.
• “This number is moving a little bit back towards Orlando after bumping up towards Boston.”
Timberwolves -3 vs Lakers
“I make this Wolves minus six. So I have to lay the number here with Minnesota.”
• 🧮 Matt described minus three as disrespectful to Minnesota’s homecourt advantage.
• Emphasized: “I just gotta lay the number.”
🧠 Brandon Anderson
Magic First Half +1.5
“Magic, first half plus one and a half against the Celtics.”
• Backed by Game 3 first-half trend:
“Teams going home down 0-2 since 2006… 66% ATS in the first half.” (91-48-1 ATS)
• 🏠 Role players step up at home, driving first-half performance.
Bucks First Half -2.5
“Bucks first half against the Pacers.”
• Uses same Game 3 first-half trend — specifically strong for teams that lost by 5+ in Game 2.
• Brandon tied it to the Bucks playing for their future and Giannis’ loyalty:
“They’ve got to show up with something here.”
Timberwolves Second Half -1 vs Lakers
“Give me a Wolves second half minus one against the Lakers.”
• 🔥 Described this series as Lakers first half, Wolves second half — backed by season-long splits:
“Lakers first half net rating +6.9, second half -4.7; Wolves second half +7.8, including +13.2 at home.”
• 🐺 Timberwolves second halves: 6-0 vs Lakers this season, averaging a +7.7 margin.
💥 Sean Little
Bucks-Pacers Over 229.5
“Bucks-Pacers over 229.5 live right now at DraftKings as we record this.”
• 🔊 No extra breakdown, but Brandon tailed this later on:
“Three for three games today look like they’re soaring toward the over.”
• Sean leaned on pace and role player bounce-back angles at home for Milwaukee.
Our NBA Best Bets for Friday, April 25
- Ja Morant Over 30.5 Points
- Austin Reaves Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists
- Luka Doncic Over 37.5 Points + Assists
- Payton Pritchard Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Bucks -5 vs Pacers
- Bucks-Pacers Over 230.5
- Magic Moneyline (+185)
- Timberwolves -3 vs Lakers
- Magic First Half +1.5
- Bucks First Half -2.5
- Timberwolves Second Half -1 vs Lakers
- Bucks-Pacers Over 229.5
