I've been ruminating about unit sizing, betting and how to distribute bets for the first round and wanted to finish it up here. I'm going to cover the rest of the first round of the playoffs and my general thoughts — with a few bets sprinkled in — before the final play-in spots are decided today.
Let's take a closer look at the NBA playoffs odds and the best bets for the first round, including Mavericks vs. Clippers, 76ers vs. Knicks and more.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Game 1: Sunday, 4 p.m. ET
When the lines first came out for this series, like everyone else, I immediately thought about betting the Pacers. All of the value is now gone with the Pacers at +100.
I think there is value on the Bucks at close to even money, because Doc Rivers as a coach has thrived in less than advantageous situations. I'll keep my eye on Giannis Antetokounmpo's health as the series goes along, and perhaps grab the Bucks later, but right now I can't see enough value on either side.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Game 1: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Before the Kawhi Leonard news, I was eyeing Over 5.5 games at -190 and Mavericks to win at close to even money. With the line moving, the Mavericks may be slightly overvalued.
This series is going to be hard fought, as it was the last two times these teams played when the Clippers won 4-2 and 4-3. The Over 5.5 has now moved to -195, which is still solid. The Mavs have been better since the trade deadline, and I have no faith in James Harden in the playoffs. I'm nervous since the Clippers rolled over without Leonard in the playoffs last year, and he is a tweaked hamstring away from playing two or fewer games.
I think this Mavs team is legit. Luka Dončić has been incredible in the playoffs time and time again. Dallas fits together a lot better, and it reminds me of the run it made in 2022 to the conference finals. There is no answer for Dončić defensively. On the other side of the ball, the Clippers don't have that many shooters, aren't as flexible as they once were and are going to be relying a lot on Harden and Russell Westbrook. The Clippers need Harden to be good; their offense was seven points worse this season when he was off the floor. But knowing playoff Harden, he just won't deliver on a consistent basis. If Leonard misses even a game or is limited in any way, they may be drawing dead.
I'm betting .4u on the Mavericks to win at -115 on Fanatics. If you don't have Fanatics, I'd bet the -124 or -125 on BetRivers or DraftKings.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks
Game 1: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET
I am an eternal playoff Embiid optimist. This may be the playoffs when he finally puts it together, is healthy after a rest and dominates the way he did during the regular season. But after watching their game against the Heat, that doesn't seem to be the case. Embiid looked slow, didn't leave the paint on defense and was not an offensive force. They won that game because their role players played above their heads and Jimmy Butler got hurt. They can't win a playoff series with Nicolas Batum hitting 6 3s.
That brings me to the Knicks, who upended their team midseason and are without Julius Randle. These stats are hard to believe, but when OG Anunoby was on the floor for the Knicks, they had a +22 net rating. The Randle injury seems problematic, until you remember that in the last two playoffs, Randle has had an effective field goal percentage of 34.4% and 43.2%. This Knicks team might actually be better in the playoffs without him.
Tom Thibodeau is a coach who consistently goes all out in the regular season and whose teams underperform in the playoffs. Consequently, the Knicks are consistently overrated by the market. This isn't the case here: This Knicks team is legitimately good, deserving of the 2-seed and poised to make a run. I don't think Tyrese Maxey will be able to score with the array of Knicks defenders, and with De'Anthony Melton out, Philadelphia doesn't have a great option to guard Jalen Brunson.
My initial gut was to completely back the Knicks here, but I have two concerns. First, Nick Nurse is a great coach who often finds ways to get the most out of players and explore new and diverse units. He may end up being the difference here. Second, it's possible the Knicks offense isn't enough when Brunson is off the floor.
Ultimately, I am backing the Knicks, but going lighter than my initial reaction. I'm going:
- .2u on Knicks game 1/Knicks series at +170 on DraftKings
- .1u on Knicks -1.5 at +220 at DraftKings/BetMGM
- .2u on Knicks to win series at -110 on most books
Boston Celtics
Game 1: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Let's talk about where the Celtics are currently at. Boston is -175 to win the East. Jaylen Brown is +500 to win ECF MVP and Jayson Tatum is +115. If the Celtics make the finals, Tatum will have to be their best player and rock. He has already won ECF MVP once, and would probably be it again. The margin here says Tatum wins 73% of the time — that is too low. If you like the Celtics, I'd bet Tatum to win ECF MVP at +115.
I am not betting this, because I don't think they are the juggernaut they are made out to be. They did finish with the best net rating in the NBA and 14 wins clear of the 2-seed, but their bench wasn't particularly strong and I don't think their fastball is as good as other teams.
Here is the on-court net rating for different superstars in the NBA this season:
| Player | Net Rating |
| Nikola Jokić | 12.6 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 11.3 |
| Jayson Tatum | 10.7 |
| Jalen Brunson | 9.1 |
| Joel Embiid | 9 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 8.2 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 6.7 |
| Luka Dončić | 6.3 (9.4 w/o traded players) |
Tatum's is great, but if we think about how good these teams are, it's important to note how they fair with their best player on the floor, since that's what most playoff series come down to. Using that metric, the Celtics and Tatum are third in the NBA, and the rest are right on their tail. They are good, but not an all time juggernaut, and might not win in the playoffs. It's why I bet Celtics to not win Eastern Conference Finals at +165 on Circa for .5u.
I was very much looking forward to Heat/Celtics part four, but the Butler injury has me down. We will see where this series ends up, but the Bulls and Heat are looking much worse without their two best players.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Game 1: Sunday, 9:30 p.m. ET
I will almost certainly have a bet on the Thunder after the play-in game. This OKC team is legitimately really good. They have a superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (see the net rating above), one of the best coaches in the NBA and a lot of talent up and down the roster. If it weren't for the Nuggets, I would be betting the Thunder to win the conference. They will relentlessly attack the rim, hit open 3s and score at will. On the other end, they force a ton of turnovers, and with a real rim protector in Chet Holmgren, have limited opponents' effectiveness around the rim.
Their weakness has seemed to be elite rim protection. Luckily, they won't face that in the first round. I'm expecting a line similar to the Nuggets, where it's Thunder -1.5 for between -115 and -135. I'd take that line for at least .5u, and potentially sprinkle on a sweep. We will see where it ends up, but the Pelicans and Kings are beat up teams that aren't elite on either end.
Denver Nuggets
Game 1: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET
I've posted a lot of bets on the Nuggets: to win the title before the season, series spread, over on Jokić props, etc. I think they are the best team this season, and I'm not sure how close it is.
Before the season, I dug into the ingredients of the past 40 champions. In that article, I covered how 36 of the last 40 champions had a former MVP, playing in his prime, who was All-NBA the season before. This led to betting the Nuggets and Warriors to win the title. Part of the uncertainty preseason was whether someone else would emerge as a superstar and capture the MVP,
Since then, we have a full regular season under our belts, and Jokić is going to win MVP. The other former MVPs are hurt (Embiid, Antetoukounmpo), out of the playoffs (Stephen Curry) or at a severe matchup disadvantage (LeBron James). Kevin Durant is the only other one near his prime, but the Suns are so far away defensively from what is needed.
This postseason will likely be the Nuggets winning the title, or something anomalous and another team happens to win (which would be anomalous by NBA history standards). The Nuggets are currently +300 to win the title. I think it's more advantageous to bet them series by series, but if you have free bets or like futures, the Nuggets at +300 is a great price.
I can't think of a line I like more, which is why I'm adding another .5u to the Nuggets -1.5 at -140 on DraftKings. The odds are just way too good, it's almost a straight arb to other books, and I have a really hard time finding a scenario in which the Lakers win three games.
