Jazz vs. Nuggets Game 7 Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, Sept. 1)

Jazz vs. Nuggets Game 7 Odds

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In what has become an "instant classic" series, the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz are set to play the lone Game 7 of the first round. This series has seen overtimes, blowouts, and a pair of emerging star guards trade 50-pieces almost nightly.

In Game 6, Jamal Murray got the best of Donovan Mitchell, going for 50 for the second time in three games. Murray's performance carried the Nuggets to a 119-107 win, covering the three-point spread and extending their season.

Now, it's time to look forward to Game 7:

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Utah Jazz

Utah opened up Game 6 in typical ho-hum fashion, shooting 63% from the field and 5-of-8 from 3 to grab an early lead. Then, much like in Game 5, the Jazz offense went stagnant around Mitchell. Denver's increased off-ball pressure and energy on the defensive glass took the Jazz out of sync.

Mitchell was fantastic once again for Utah, dropping 44 points on 14-of-25 shooting, but no one else chipped in. The rest of the Jazz poured in 63 points on 20-of-50 shooting. Rudy Gobert had a quiet night, due in no small part to Denver's defensive adjustments. The Nuggets defense has started to wise up to the pick-and-roll and is starting to neutralize Gobert.

Where Utah is really hurting is on the perimeter. The Jazz are still drilling perimeter shots at a crazy rate, but there is not much movement outside of Mitchell.

Mike Conley is more of a facilitator, but he has lost his quick first step. And Jordan Clarkson finally fell back down to earth due to Gary Harris' tough defense that took him out of the game early. Joe Ingles was missing in action last night, and Royce O'Neale seems gassed chasing Murray around on the other end.

For Utah to win Game 7, the Jazz need Mitchell to perform at his peak ability. But furthermore, Mitchell is going to need more from his supporting cast. Going into this series, I was wary of trusting Utah's wing rotation without Bojan Bogdanovic, and the second halves of Game 5 and Game 6 tell the ugly truth.

In Game 7, getting someone like Clarkson or Ingles going early will be imperative to apply some pressure to Denver's resurgent defense and give Mitchell some space to operate as the game goes on.

Denver Nuggets

Jamal Murray's explosion has changed the trajectory of this series, and now Denver is set up nicely for Game 7. Once down 3-1, Murray has scrapped Utah's gameplan. Expect a lot more hard hedges, some doubles, and physical play on Murray. Utah is going to try and put out the fire before it gets lit.

Here is the issue for Utah: Denver has an All-NBA center in Nikola Jokic who can create and produce big games in his own right. Rudy Gobert has done a great job on Jokic, but if the Jazz completely focus on Murray, then the Joker can take advantage of tilted defense and 4-on-3's with ease.

Murray deserves all the praise for his performances, but the return of Gary Harris was pivotal in Game 6. His offense still leaves a lot to be desired, but Harris' defense was impactful from the second he touched the floor. He quickly shut the lid on Jordan Clarkson and was disrupting drives and diving on the floor for loose balls. Harris logged a +16 Plus/Minus in 20 minutes for the Nuggets and clearly gave Denver a much-needed boost.

Down six points after the first quarter, Denver trotted out a reserve unit with Harris and Mason Plumlee that turned the tide of the game. Denver never looked back after that, and now here we are.

Betting Analysis

It's been a wild ride to this point, and I can't get off the Nuggets train now.

It's safe to say that Murray and Mitchell are going to get their offense, but I trust Denver's stable of auxiliary weapons more than Utah's. With Harris giving minutes off the bench, the Nuggets have another wing to bother Mitchell out on the perimeter. Denver can also slide Paul Milsap out of the lineup more easily to boost their off-ball defense.

This series has been insane, and I expect another crazy one in the clincher. Take Denver to win outright and earn a date with the Clippers in the second round.

Pick: Nuggets moneyline (-105)

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