The Knicks beat the 76ers in a spirited, back-and-forth Game 1, hitting a barrage of late 3s to win, 111-104.
On the surface, Game 1 looks like a classic "do not overreact" spot.
Josh Hart hit four 3s. Miles McBride turned into Clyde Frazier. The Sixers smashed in Joel Embiid's minutes, but McBride finished +37 off the bench in a seven-point win.
Put on your brotherly love colored glasses and you can easily find silver linings.
Embiid and the starters won their minutes comfortably, Jalen Brunson was inefficient and the Knicks half-court offense was horrendous. Even out the 3-point variance, make McBride mortal and New York may not even win Game 1, let alone the series.
True enough, except for one thing — this series is already over.
This isn't a Game 1 overreaction. All those things were true about Game 1. Philadelphia was the better team for much of the game and probably should've won. That's all well and great, except for one small detail.
Philadelphia did not win Game 1. It lost.
And now, here's the cold, hard reality.
The Sixers and Knicks play again in less than two days, the quickest turnaround in the series until Game 5.
Rest was always going to be a huge factor in a physical, defensive series, one which Embiid entered injured and worn down, in doubt — even on extra rest — hours before the game.
Turns out, Embiid looked great — until he didn't. He dominated the first half and played like an MVP, even finishing with an electric self-alley-oop dunk just before the half, but came down hard on his knee, fell to the ground and limped to the locker room.
Anyone watching figured that was it for Embiid. For Game 1, probably for the series and, by extension, the season.
But it wasn't.
Embiid came back, labored through the second half, clearly worse and less mobile or aggressive, and Philadelphia made a monster push, took the lead and had a chance to steal the game.
Embiid put in 37 tough minutes, even with the injury absence, and now gets just one day off to rest that re-injured knee before Game 2.
Once Philadelphia decided to risk Embiid and make a push, Game 1 became the series for the Sixers. Steal a win, rest Embiid in Game 2, take the split, and go home for Games 3 and 4, both off two days rest.
Lose? That's another story.
Philadelphia will get demolished in this series with anything other than MVP-level Embiid. We saw it in four regular season games and again Saturday. No chance on the glass, not enough offense and no defense.
Now, Philadelphia will get Embiid playing hurt (if at all?) on short rest in Game 2.
The Sixers will not win that game. They're also not mentally tough enough to win Game 7 in New York, and they're not beating the Knicks four times in a row.
I'll save you the math — this series is already over.
Bet Knicks Game 2 and series double.
It's not an overreaction to Game 1. It's just a reflection of reality.
It's over.
