The NBA Playoffs are here!
Three series immediately drew my attention, and I found great lines that I think should be bet right away.
Here's NBA Playoffs odds and picks below.
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Game 1: Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
Last year, the Cavs rode a stellar NET Rating to a quick first-round playoff loss.
This season, they came into the year with the goal of advancing out of the first round, and they tanked the last game of the regular season to drop into the four-seed. They'll now face the Orlando Magic in the opening round.
These teams are extremely similar, as both are stellar defensively and mediocre on offense. Neither was particularly good against teams over .500, and the Cavs aren't completely healthy coming into the postseason.
Coaching matchups are always fascinating to me, and last year, I discounted Tom Thibodeau more than I did J.B. Bickerstaff. That was a mistake.
Bickerstaff is not quick to make adjustments and hasn't been able to figure out how to get Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen effectively on the floor together.
Last year, the Cavs were destroyed on the defensive glass by the Knicks, giving up almost 40% of offensive rebounds to the second-best offensive rebounding team in the NBA.
I don't think they've solved that problem, and they face a Magic team that's similarly big and was the eighth-best offensive rebounding team this season.
I think this series is a toss-up. On a neutral floor, I'd probably favor the Magic, but the Cavs have home court.
I think there are a bunch of angles (Jim Turvey likes Magic 4-2), but I'd ultimately lean Magic -1.5. This covers the scenario where they win in 6 (on their home floor), but also where the Cavs draw dead and Donovan Mitchell isn't healthy.
Pick: Magic -1.5 Series Spread (+260 | .3u | DraftKings)
FanDuel has player props for this series, including most assists. Darius Garland is -165, Paolo Banchero is +370 and Mitchell is +390. During the regular season, Garland averaged 6.5 assists per game, Mitchell averaged 6.1 and Banchero averaged 5.4.
This is clearly a three-man race, and maybe even a two-man race between Mitchell and Garland.
During games featuring both Garland and Mitchell this season, Garland dropped 6.3 per game. During the playoffs last season, Mitchell led the Cavs with 7.2 to Garland's 5.0.
Mitchell should be the co-favorite at worse, and potentially even the favorite.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Most Assists in Series (+390 | .3u | FanDuel)
Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Game 1: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Books have this as a toss-up. Minnesota dominated the regular season, is getting Karl-Anthony Towns back and had the best defense in the NBA by a mile.
Phoenix, on the other hand, struggled the entire season, couldn't really find a good group of players and was barely healthy.
But the playoffs are a different animal, and Phoenix is healthy at the right time in a matchup that it's dominated during the Kevin Durant era (4-0).
Minnesota had a dominant defense by walling off the rim, pushing teams off the 3-point line and forcing them into mid-range shots.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, this is exactly where Phoenix thrives, as it's the second-best mid-range shooting team in the NBA on the second-most attempts.
This was the storyline in the Phoenix/Minnesota games this season. Phoenix had a 150 and a 136.6 offensive rating in two wins against the Wolves this season, and those were Minnesota's worst defensive games.
Dan Feldman from "Dunc'd On" went through the NBA playoff rotations and adjusted based on who each team would play. Phoenix actually finishes slightly ahead of Minnesota.
I'm tempted to grab the spread, but I think the best move is straight up.
Pick: Phoenix to Win Series (-115 | .5u | ESPNBet or BetRivers)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Game 1: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET
I already bet Nuggets -1.5 on the series spread at -130 on DraftKings for 2u.
The Lakers' biggest problem in this matchup is that they have no way to keep up with Denver offensively without compromising their best option to slow them down on the other side of the ball.
This is why their games are close, but Denver ultimately comes out on top.
If the Lakers play their best offensive players — like Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell — they can score well, but then they'll get roasted by Jamal Murray on the other end.
If they play Gabe Vincent or Jarred Vanderbilt to slow Denver down, they just have no way to score well enough.
This also overlooks that there are no defensive answers for Nikola Jokic, and the Nuggets have won eight straight.
This feels like free money at the -1.5 series spread. The line is -140 now, and I'd still bet that for 2u (and a little less if it falls more).
