Here's a look at the NBA Playoffs matchups and bets for Thursday, May 9, including Cavaliers vs. Celtics and Mavericks vs. Thunder.
Cavaliers vs. Celtics
In reality, this breakdown is as simple as "the Cavs make things harder on themselves than they should" and "the Celtics don't, most of the time."
I want to look at a trend, though. I played the Celtics in Game 1 based on the trends supporting fading teams coming off a Game 7 — like the Cavs were.
Teams that played in a Game 7 and then lost Game 1 of the following series bounce back against the spread. They're 12-8 ATS on the road. They're 20-17 ATS as a 'dog after losing a Game 1 following a Game 7.
Boston, since the bubble, is 18-22 ATS after winning and covering in the playoffs. It's 4-5 ATS after winning by 20 or more and 1-4 at home.
It's rare that I play a spread when I don't think the team can win. The Cavs can't win this game, unless this is the random-number-generated contest that features the Celtics missing a bunch of shots and the opponent making a bunch, which happens once per round (at least) to Boston.
But this is too many points for a team in a bounce-back spot.
Teams get over blowouts; they know they can be better. The Celtics are still without Kristaps Porzingis.
The Cavs were in a nightmare spot last game. They'll settle down and compete in a game they'll ultimately lose.
I'll grab the points.
Pick: Cavs +13.5
Mavericks vs. Thunder
The Mavericks have very little chance of competing against Oklahoma City unless Luka Doncic suddenly looks much better.
Here's his shot chart:
If Doncic is going to shoot 24% from 3 on his variety of early shot clock, step-back contested 3s — the very shots that define his superstar nature — it's just too much of a drag on the Mavericks' half-court offense.
No, I'm being literal, those are literally the crucial shots he's missing:
Doncic wasn't just rough on offense, his defense was equally bad. Watch him on this possession:
If that's the Doncic that the Mavs are going to get, they're going to have a difficult time in this series.
The Mavericks had two macro problems beyond Doncic in Game 1: Their half-court offense couldn't generate anything remotely sustainable, and their defense cracked under the weight of the Thunder's ball movement. OKC constantly cuts and all its players can shoot, pass and drive.
The weak spot in Game 1 was really Josh Giddey, so the Thunder just didn't play him. He played less than four minutes in the fourth quarter. Giddey can also play better than he did in Game 1.
The upside for Dallas was its rim protection. Daniel Gafford, who struggled at times in the first round, was incredible defending the rim in Game 1.
Gafford was one of the only Mavericks who seemed able to play at the pace the Thunder moved at. OKC whipped the ball around constantly and kept attacking, and Dallas seemed on its heels for most of the game.
That said, the Mavericks were in the game as late as the fourth quarter before a late run put them away.
Can Dallas adapt for Game 2?
Let's assume the Mavericks get an average Doncic. They're still going to need such a big jump in half-court efficiency against a pretty voracious Thunder team.
The biggest issue is that the Mavericks are built to either contain the rim or contain specific players on the edge. But the Thunder present a constant challenge in space, and that's where the Mavs' defense starts to struggle.
The Thunder dared Josh Green to hit 3s, and Green had good corner look after good corner look but only hit 3-of-8.
The Thunder were only 2.5-point favorites at open of Game 1 and took sharp money until tipoff. That line assumed either essentially no home-court advantage for the Thunder (they were +6.2 in ATS margin at home this season), or that the Mavericks would be favored on neutral court. Neither makes sense.
The current line — even if we used a 2.5-point advantage — suggests the Thunder are only 2.5 points better than the Mavericks. That's a conservative home-court advantage, meaning the power rating still suggests these two teams are equal.
Dallas is dangerous. Its defense is physical and imposing and great at protecting the rim.
But the Thunder are the best shooting team in the West. The Thunder have proven their offense and defense are real. They proved it in the regular season and in the first round of the playoffs against the Pelicans. They proved it in Game 1, too, running away from Dallas.
When the Thunder tell you they're legit contenders, believe them.
If Doncic looks like himself, he can flip this matchup on his own; he's that good. But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the best player in Game 1.
Less than two possessions at home for a team that hasn't lost yet in the playoffs and matches up well with the Mavericks is too light. I'll lay the points.
As for a prop, Green is one of the few Mavericks in the rotation with point-of-attack defense. He got roasted in Game 1 and was a -20.
But in the first-round series against the Clippers, Jason Kidd didn't remove players from the rotation. He consistently went to Gafford despite his struggles. He'll do the same with Green here.
Green got all kinds of trigger looks when the Mavericks put two on-ball against Doncic.
He'll continue to get these looks in Game 2, and the Thunder will dare him to hit them. He shot 39% from 3 this season and 40% from 3 last season. He shot 38% from the corners this season.
He'll hit more than one, and that's all he needs for this to go over.
I'll also look for Jaylin Williams over on PRA's (unavailable at this time of this writing). He was terrific in the Dereck Lively II minutes, as Dallas struggled with this versatility.
