Bucks vs. Nets Game 7 Player Prop Bets: 3 Picks for NBA Playoffs Game, Including Durant, Middleton and Harden (Saturday, June 19)

The NBA community is still drunk off last night. Mann, what a night of basketball — with a couple of young players emerging as heroes, Terance Mann and Tyrese Maxey.

Kawhi who? In Mann’s case, he dropped a career-high 39 points with seven 3-pointers to help the Clippers erase a 25-point deficit and head to their first Western Conference Finals appearance. This epic performance also brought out the best version of Reggie Jackson I’ve ever seen.

On the Sixers front, Maxey came off the bench and delivered 16 points and seven rebounds. The 21st pick of the 2021 NBA Draft played big minutes down the stretch and was a pivotal asset in the Sixers forcing Game 7 against the Hawks. Shoutout to Seth Curry too.

All-in-all, Friday showed us why the NBA is must-see TV.

The saga continues on Saturday night, with Milwaukee facing off against Brooklyn for Game 7. Tonight’s matchup will determine who punches the first ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Game 7. In Brooklyn. This is what playoff basketball is all about!

With only one game on the slate, today’s props center on the stars: Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton and James Harden.

For those who are new to this article, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.

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NBA Player Props & Picks

Kevin Durant over 5.5 assists (+110)

It’s Game 7. This is where the NBA greats make another imprint on their legacies. And here we have Kevin Durant, a two-time NBA champion, former MVP and Finals MVP with an opportunity to lead his injured squad one step closer to another NBA Finals appearance. He’s the best player on the court and arguably the best player on the planet right now.

While I believe he’ll have a great game offensively, I think most of his prop markets are a bit too high or have a lot of juice. Durant’s points and rebounds are listed at 35.5 and 11.5. However, his assists total is understated at 5.5 with plus odds.

The game total currently sits at 216. Per the SDQL database, Game 7’s in Round 2 or greater have gone 22-7 (75.9%) to the under since the 2002-2003 season (thanks Austin Wang). Since two of the last three games have gone under, I’m not expecting a high-scoring affair.

Back to KD’s assists. He’s eclipsed 5.5 assists in each of his last two games at home in this series. The Bucks noticeably sent more help to P.J. Tucker in Game 6 to force the ball out of his hands. The problem is, Nets role players like Joe Harris haven’t been knocking down shots.

According to Second Spectrum, Durant is averaging 10.2 potential assists per game in the semifinals. That’s plenty of opportunities to sneak in a few more assists after averaging 5.3 in this series.

I mention Joe Harris because he’s one of the biggest beneficiaries of Durant’s assists in the playoffs. He and Bruce Bown have been on the receiving end of 20 of Durant’s 47 dimes, so they’re going to play a big part in hitting this number. It also helps that James Harden has looked better in each of the two games since returning from a hamstring injury.

Durant is touching the ball on 84.3 possessions per game against the Bucks. The next closest is Kyrie Irving at 70. With the series on the line, I expect him to be even more ball-dominant and looking to get his teammates involved.

Our Action Labs Projections Tool has Durant piling up 7.0 assists in Game 7. With a bet quality rating of 10 and at plus odds, I'm buying into Durant distributing at least six assists tonight.

Khris Middleton over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

I wrote up a similar piece on Middleton on Thursday, as I saw a lot of value in his rebounds + assists market at 11.5. He smashed that, putting up 15 total rebounds + assists.

He’s now exceeded 11.5 rebounds + assists in four of six games in this series. Now, Middleton is coming off a playoff career-high of 38 points (along with 10 rebounds and five rebounds) in Game 6.

I don’t expect him to replicate that performance, but he should be just as involved in other aspects of the game. Though his individual markets for rebounds (6.5) and assists (4.5) don’t jump off the page, our Action Labs Projection tool has Middleton grabbing 8.0 rebounds and dishing out 6.0 assists, respectively.

He’s slumping a bit when playing on the road in this series, missing out on 11.5 rebounds + assists in two of three games played in Brooklyn. But, Game 2 was a blowout, and Middleton shot 13-for-43 in the first two games of the series. Not his best brand of ball.

Since then, he’s been playing extremely well. Minus another blowout in Game 3, over his last three games, Middleton averaged 76 touches per game. He’s seeing the second-highest rebound chance opportunity (11.8%) behind Giannis Antetokounmpo and ranks second on the team in passes made per game (46.3) and assists points created per game (10.0) behind Jrue Holiday.

The Bucks' game plan is feeding Giannis the ball, a lot. But Middleton will be just as important if the Bucks earn a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Middleton’s seen a usage rate of at least 27% in five-of-six games in this series. But, Game 7 is where we’ll see the Bucks lay it all on the line. With the markets failing to adjust from Thursday's explosion, this is a great spot for Middleton to thrive.

Our Action Projections Tool has Middleton accumulating 14.0 rebounds + assists in Game 7. With a bet quality rating of 8, I’m betting the over once again on his 11.5 rebounds + assists combo market.

James Harden over 2.5 Three's (-148)

I can’t help but respect the hell out of James Harden right now. The dude is clearly playing on one leg, but he’s still making an impact on the game. “The Beard” played 46 minutes in Game 5 and 40 minutes in Game 6. Given that this is Game 7, I think he’ll get an extra dose of whatever is keeping him going and will hit at least three 3-pointers tonight.

Harden made his return in Game 5, where he shot a miserable 1-for-10 from the field and 0-for-8 from beyond the arc. Game 6 was a different story, where he converted 3-of-6 from 3-point land.

Before going down with a hamstring injury, Harden was attempting 59.3% of his shots from 3-point range. Joe Harris is the only other Nets starter to post a higher rate than James Harden, per NBA Advanced Stats.

There were a few key plays in Game 6 where Harden passed up the opportunity to lead the fast break or drive to the basket. It’s hard to ignore that his hamstring injury is preventing him from playing downhill. What his injury won’t deter him from is hoisting up three-pointers.

He’s attempted 14 total in his past two contests, and there is no reason to think he won't sustain that tempo in the most important game of the season. He’s averaging 2.8 3-pointers made in the Playoffs and hitting them at a 40.7% clip.

Our projections have Harden knocking down 3.6 3-pointers. I’m taking the over and expect Harden to be more aggressive offensively in Game 7 with the prospects of him reaching his second Conference Final.