The 2024 NBA playoffs are finally here!
This is what we've waited for all season, so let's dive right in. I'll preview each of the eight series and give a series pick, plus any game-by-game or props angles I'm eyeing. We covered each of these series in great depth on the Buckets podcast too if you want to dive further into the weeds.
I'll be adding my Knicks vs. 76ers breakdown on Friday, and then we'll add the 1 vs. 8 series once those matchups are set. For now, here are my thoughts and bets for the first five first-round series that were set.
Let's dig in.
NBA Playoffs Preview & Predictions
| Series | Lower Seed | Higher Seed | Series Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics vs. Heat/Bulls |  |  |  |
| Cavaliers vs. Magic |  |  | |
| Bucks vs. Pacers |  |  | |
| Knicks vs. 76ers |  |  | |
| Thunder vs. Pelicans/Kings |  |  | |
| Clippers vs. Mavericks |  |  | |
| Wolves vs. Suns |  |  | |
| Nuggets vs. Lakers |  |  | |
Boston Celtics
The Case for the Celtics
I wrote about Boston's historically dominant regular season profile. The Celtics stack up well against the greatest teams in the history of the sport — so far. They're an absolute juggernaut and a heavy favorite to win the East and make it to the NBA Finals.
As if that wasn't enough, Boston cannot possibly have found a better bracket draw. On the final day of the regular season, everything broke right for the Celtics and Boston found out it will get to play the Cavs or Magic in the second round — easily the two weakest teams in the bracket. Now Boston barely ducked Embiid and the Sixers and also saw the Heat lose Jimmy Butler, likely for the duration of the series.
Boston futures are looking better and better.
Miami Heat
The Case for the Heat/Bulls
I mean… shot variance? Randomness? Sports happen? I got nothing.
Betting Picks
Look to bet on a Boston sweep of either opponent
The Celtics are not scared of either opponent, but they'll certainly prefer the Bulls. Chicago's probably the better team with Butler out, but Heat Culture is real, and Miami is an absolute pain in the butt to play against. Boston can just be better than Chicago.
Either way, I'm ready to bet the sweep at anything longer than +225. Neither of these teams is in the same stratosphere as Boston. The Celtics have played with their food in the past and given away a game or two in series like this, but this team is different and I think they know that perception too and will be ready to show otherwise this time around. I'll be disappointed if Boston loses more than one game these first two rounds.
Props & Other Angles
Give me Boston in Game 1 too. These teams are banged up and playing Friday night with a quick turnaround and a flight to Boston for a Sunday 1pm tipoff. If the line gets too long, just play Celtics first half, where they're best in the league.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Case for the Cavs
Expect to see a whole lot of defense in this made-for-NBA-TV series. But while the Cavs at least have a few potential scoring options, it's really hard to see the Magic finding enough offense to hang in this series.
Orlando was 5-10 against top-six defenses like the Cavs, averaging 104.4 points per game, compared to 42-25 at 111.9 points per game against all other opponents. The best Magic weapon, Paolo Banchero, saw a similar falloff. Against top-six defenses, he was an ugly 44% from the field with a sub-100 Offensive Rating, and he was miserable against the Cavs on both ends of the court despite a 42-point game, with a 98-129 ORTG-DRTG differential and a terrible -4.2 BPM. Franz Wagner was also poor.
The Magic got here with elite defense, but there just aren't many options on offense. Orlando is bottom five at 3s, and the Cavs rank third in 2-point percentage defense. Orlando is also top-five in free-throw rate, but Cleveland doesn't foul much, and the Cavs dominated the offensive glass in the season series too. The Cavs took 31 more 3-point attempts than the Magic over four games as well.
Cleveland's offense can be a grind, but it's really hard to find enough points from Orlando.
Orlando Magic
The Case for the Magic
It's hard to come into a series with worse vibes than the Cavs tanking the final minutes of the season to the Hornets' backups and blowing the division to get into this matchup. That puts all the pressure on Cleveland to win this series, and the young Magic are playing with house money.
Cleveland started 2024 at 17-1, but the Cavs are 30-32 outside of that stretch and an ugly 11-16 since the All-Star break, with both the offense and defense ranked in the bottom 10. Donovan Mitchell does not look healthy, playing only seven games since the start of March, and he's been absolutely miserable on court with his season-long BPM dropping from 6.5 to -3.8 and an ugly 102 ORTG.
The Magic are a great team at home and have a terrific bench unit, and they can force turnovers in this series and score easy buckets off of them. They're the younger, hungrier team, and the Cavs may be ready for the offseason and potentially a new coach and/or a Mitchell trade.
Betting Picks
Split your bet between Cavs in 5 (+375, bet365) and Cavs in 6 (+490, FanDuel)
I would've probably picked against both of these teams against any other side in the playoffs, but here we are. Cleveland's vibes are whatever the opposite of immaculate is, and it's entirely possible the locker room is sour and this goes badly.
But the Cavs were also minutes away from a division title despite a season besieged by injuries, and they should have their top four on the court. In a vacuum, that top four — Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen — may well be the top four players in the series right now.
Give me the Cavs in five or six. I'll split my bet equally on both, giving us an implied ticket at +163. I like that better than Cavs -1.5 (+110) because we're only sacrificing the sweep and neither offense is steady enough to sweep here.
Props & Other Angles
Game to game, it's hard to bet anything other than unders until these teams prove otherwise. What's the lowest final score here that would surprise you? 81-73? 78-71? How low can we go? I'll be looking for opportunities to fade Banchero. He's going to get a ton of attention defensively. I like turnover overs, since he averaged 4.3 per game against the Cavs.
In games where you like the Cavs, bet the first quarter. Cleveland won all three first quarters in the season series with Mitchell playing, twice by 17 and 19, and the Magic rank 21st in Net Rating (-3.7) that quarter.
I'll take a shot on Sam Merrill to lead a series in 3s (+6000, FanDuel) where there may not be many. He's as good a shooter as there is in the NBA, and he had eight in one game against Orlando. I'll also nibble both Jonathan Isaac and Goga Bitadze at +10000 (bet365) for rebounding series leader. The Magic have to play a big, and Wendell Carter Jr. has been unreliable.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Case for the Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful to start the series with a calf injury, but Giannis has historically been a fast healer, and when he's back, he should absolutely dominate in this series.
The Pacers allow the most points in the paint in the NBA at 58.4, and that's where Giannis lives. He put up some outrageous lines in five games against Indiana this season — games with 54 and 64 points, a 37/10 night, a 30-point triple double — and averaged a whopping 42.2 points per game on 68% FG with over 17 free-throw attempts a game.
Indiana has absolutely no answer for Antetokounmpo. The Pacers' defense is not good, and Antetokounmpo has taken advantage of it better than any player in the league. Giannis got even better down the stretch, playing at an MVP level. Milwaukee just needs to weather the storm early, get at least one of the first two games at home, get Giannis back for Game 3 and take care of business from there.
Indiana Pacers
The Case for the Pacers
Antetokounmpo has played at an MVP level because he had to — the rest of this team stinks. Damian Lillard has fallen off hard and isn't the right sort of penetrating guard to hurt this defense. Khris Middleton isn't what he once was, and Brook Lopez was terrible in the season series at 4.0 RPG with some ghastly lines. The Bucks brought in Doc Rivers to fix the defense without finding any answers, but the offense has cratered from No. 2 to 18 ORTG under Doc and from top three EFG and free throws to No. 13.
For all that Giannis production, the Pacers won four of five against the Bucks anyway. This is just a terrible matchup for Milwaukee, whose defense is built to encourage opponent 2s but is no longer good at stopping them. The Bucks defense allows the fourth-most 2-point attempts but dropped from No. 1 in 2-point percent defense a year ago to league average, and the Pacers lead the league in both 2s and 2-point percentage. They get easy bucket after easy bucket and did so all season, especially against the Bucks.
Indiana didn't even shoot that well against Milwaukee. The Pacers just got easy stuff, and a lot of it. They scored at least 27 points in 19 of 20 quarters and averaged 128.8 against Milwaukee with at least 122 points in every game. The Pacers dominated 2s, got to the line a lot and won the bench minutes. They were the better team head-to-head, even with Giannis playing. Without him, it might not be close.
Betting Picks
Pacers escalator: +100 series | -1.5 (+210) | -2.5 (+375) | Sweep (+900)
This is my favorite pick of the first round, and I ran to bet this at open at +230 — hopefully you followed on Twitter. That number was bet way down, then even further with the Antetokounmpo injury news.
As awesome as Antetokounmpo was in the season series, Tyrese Haliburton was pretty great too. He averaged 27 points and 11 assists with an absurd 142 Offensive Rating and a BPM over 11, basically MVP genius level offense. He slowed down in season playing injured, but since March 20, the Pacers have the best offense in the league and sit third in Net Rating, and Haliburton's numbers and metrics have returned.
I still like the Pacers at any plus number, and I'm playing the full escalator. If you like Indiana, you definitely want a short series. The longer it drags out, the more chance Giannis is back and wreaking havoc. Bet on the Pacers winning a short series, and bet it multiple ways. This is my top play of the round.
Props & Other Angles
You'll want to attack the Pacers early and often. If you like Indiana in the series, you obviously like them even more while Antetokounmpo is out. Bet the Pacers in Game 1, and look to play Pacers team overs with them averaging almost 129 points per game against Milwaukee.
The Pacers are 27-21 against teams .500 and better, second best in the East. Is there a world where Haliburton is the best player in the Eastern Conference playoffs? Antetokounmpo and Embiid are banged up, and Haliburton has been awesome. You might think about investing in a Pacers future like +2500 to win the East, even if you have a ticket to hedge out of later.
Keep an eye out for an opportunity to bet on Antetokounmpo to lead the series in points after Game 2. Even with no points those first two, his points per game was so eye-popping against Indiana that he could close ground in a hurry once he's back, and we might get a really long number.
New York Knicks
The Case for the Knicks
The New York Knicks have quietly become a steady, well-run, genuinely good NBA franchise, and that's what this team is. The Knicks are good. They're probably the third-best team in the East, and they found hard on the final day of the season, won in overtime, and earned the No. 2 seed. Unfortunately, it has now earned them a matchup against what is likely the East's second-best team.
The Knicks offense is relatively efficient, led by Jalen Brunson, and it relies heavily on a huge offensive rebounding advantage to rack up extra possessions and win the math. But this team is built around its defensive identity under Tom Thibodeau, and the defense is what has really taken off since the turn of the calendar.
Since January 1, the Knicks defense has leapt from 19th to No. 2 in Defensive Rating, with its Effective Field Goal percentage allowed leaping from 23rd to fourth. Even with a slightly worse offense during that stretch, that means the Knicks rank second in Net Rating in the 2024 calendar year. OG Anunoby is a stud defender and has transformed this team, Isaiah Hartenstein has done wonders as the starting center, and the Knicks give full defensive effort at all times and make life difficult on opponents.
New York has looked unbeatable for much of the time with Anunoby, but in a relatively small sample. The question now is how close we'll get to peak Knicks — and if this team has enough offense against a top level opponent. We'll find out right away against Philadelphia. Is Jalen Brunson enough? Can he be the best player in this series, given Joel Embiid's health?
Philadelphia 76ers
The Case for the 76ers
Philadelphia got smoked in the season series, losing 3-1, but I'm not sure we learned much with Embiid out for three of the four matchups and playing hurt in the other. The Sixers got crushed on the glass, couldn't get to the line or score, and couldn't defend to save their lives.
None of that should be a surprise given the lack of Embiid, because that's all exactly what happened to Philly the entire time it played without its star big man this season. Truly, no player has been more obviously valuable to his team, given the stark contrast with and without in real sample size. With Embiid on the court healthy before Christmas, the Sixers played like the Celtics. Without him this season, they were the Raptors.
Before Christmas, Philadelphia was 20-8 with a +11.5 Net Rating, ahead of even the Celtics by a couple points, ranking top three on both offense and defense. Then Embiid got hurt, played poorly through injury, and missed a long stretch, and the team cratered. It dropped to 20th on offense and 19th on defense, with its Offensive EFG plummeting from 9th to 28th and the same metric going from 5th to 14th defensively. The Sixers also went from a top six rebounding team to the second worst in the league without Embiid.
Those numbers all matter because Embiid is back now, which means the market rating for the Sixers based on season-long profile is off. With a healthy Embiid, Philadelphia is at least 1B to Boston's 1A in the East, and maybe not 1B. With Embiid, the Sixers are an elite defensive team and a great rebounding team, one that can match those Knicks advantages and then win with the clearly better offense.
The question is how close Philadelphia will get to a healthy Embiid. He looked good down the stretch, and Philadelphia has now won nine games in a row, but he looked unfit in the Miami play-in game and is clearly playing his way back into shape. Two days off before Games 1, 3, and 4 in this series should be a big help for Embiid and the Sixers, who saved their season with that win Wednesday night.
Philadelphia wins this series with a healthy Embiid, even against the best version of the Knicks. Is Embiid at 90%? 80%? 65%? That answer closes the gap or loses it entirely, and that's the question upon which this entire series — and a potential Philadelphia Finals run — hinges.
Betting Picks
Split your bet between Sixers in 5 (+700) and Sixers in 6 (+380)
This is the closest series in the first round. It's nearly to a true tossup for me, and priced accordingly.
The best version of both teams features outstanding defense, and I'm expecting a very slow, physical, defensive series. Get ready to play unders early and often. Both teams could really struggle to find efficient offense, in part because the offensive strengths are mitigated perfectly by the defenses.
Both teams rank top three in points scored off turnovers, but both defenses also rank top five in fewest such points allowed. The Sixers rely heavily on second chance points and scoring in the paint; the Knicks are among the best in the league at defending against both. New York relies heavily on its offensive rebounding advantage to create easy buckets; Philadelphia is a top rebounding team with Embiid.
Expect fouls and free throws to be a major storyline. The Sixers are aggressive defensively and tend to foul a lot, and the Knicks got to the line often in the season series. Philadelphia also leads the league in free throw rate, and Embiid lives at the line, but the Knicks are pretty good at not fouling. That could make home court a big swing factor, since the whistle tends to follow the home crowd.
If both defenses are great, it comes down to which offense you trust more. I trust Philadelphia's offense more. Joel Embiid played like an MVP this season, and his presence greatly lifts Tyrese Maxey, whose assists, efficiency, and free throws all skyrocket with Embiid on the court, and his Philly teammates. I'm not sure Embiid is healthy enough to win this series on his own, but his presence may allow his teammates to help get him over the line.
I lean Sixers, slightly, in the series, but it's not worth betting for me at -115. However, I can remove some outs and get to a price worth playing. New York is too good, too tough to get swept, and I also don't see the Sixers having the mental toughness to go win a road Game 7 at Madison Square Garden.
That leaves either Sixers in five (+700, DraftKings) or six games (+380, FanDuel). I'll split my bet on both and end up with an implied +200 ticket, rather than the -115 series price.
Props & Other Angles
Watch the schedule closely in this series. Embiid gets two days rest before Games 1, 3, and 4. That means a home Game 2 for the Knicks is a great spot to back New York, and it gives Philadelphia a big boost at home for Games 3 and 4. Home court advantage feels especially important in this series.
Both benches feel a bit soft. Can either team find an advantage there? How much can the Knicks do while Embiid sits — and how many minutes will he have to sit each game? Watch out for Knicks comebacks. Embiid will wear down in games, and the Knicks rank top four in the second half at +7.4 Net Rating and in just the third quarter at +10.0.
I'm looking to play Josh Hart rebounds and Donte DiVincenzo 3s. Hart averaged a ridiculous 14.3 RPG in the season series with at least 11 boards in all four games, and DDV had four 3s in three of the games and three in the other. Hart is +175 to lead the series in rebounding, and DiVincenzo is -140 to lead in 3s, but those might be better game-to-game plays.
Last, and certainly not least — I'm still buying a Sixers +850 ticket to win the East. That number barely budged after Philly's play-in win, despite it securing an actual playoff berth and giving Philadelphia the far better playoff path, away from Boston. That doesn't check out for me. Long shot futures are a bet on outlier outcomes. The outlier positive outcome for Philadelphia, if things go right, is a deep playoff run and a real chance to beat Boston and maybe even win it all.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Case for the Thunder
The Thunder are the West No. 1 seed after a shocking regular season. They finished top five in both Offensive and Defensive Rating and led the league in 3-point percentage. The aggressive defense forces a barrage of turnovers and leads to 20.4 PPG, most in the league, while the offense almost never turns it over, creating a huge possession and math margin in OKC's favor.
Oklahoma City is led by a bona fide MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — at least until he got injured and fell off late — and sensational seasons from sophomore Jalen Williams and rookie Chet Holmgren. That trio has not played on a stage like this, but the regular season profile was elite.
There are real questions with this squad that need to be answered in a playoff setting, though. What happens when the Thunder lose that huge turnover margin? Will the hot shooting hold up? How will the team respond to the slower, more physical playoffs as a small team that tends to get demolished on the glass? Will the aggressive defense find OKC in foul trouble and losing the free-throw battle?
There are individual questions, too. Can SGA play like the MVP candidate he was early in the year, or will we get the much worse version we saw down the stretch? Will Holmgren withstand the pounding, especially after wearing down late in the season? Will guys like Josh Giddey and Lu Dort be played out of a playoff rotation? Which of the many young players will embrace or shrink from the moment?
The Thunder were an excellent regular season team, but they could be a very matchup-dependent squad.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Case for the Pelicans/Kings
With Zion Williamson injured and unlikely to play in this series, the Kings likely have the two best players between Sacramento and New Orleans. The Kings would crush OKC on the glass, and there would be huge 3-point attempts both ways that would open up Oklahoma City to shot variance randomness. But Gilgeous-Alexander is better than De'Aaron Fox and the best player on the court, and though the more veteran Kings would likely push the Thunder, Oklahoma City should win out in the end.
New Orleans is the much trickier matchup for OKC. The Pelicans finished top 10 in offense and defense and sixth in Net Rating, and they're a very quirky team with huge weaknesses but strange, powerful strengths.
The Pelicans allow a ton of 3-point attempts but lead the league in 3-point percentage allowed, a feat Willie Green's defense has accomplished twice in a row, enough for it not to be a fluke anymore. New Orleans has a barrage of nasty defenders to throw at SGA and put the onus on Williams, Giddey, Dort, and other Thunder players and force them to hit contested shots and create their own plays. The Pelicans are also a great shooting team that doesn't shoot many 3s, but the Thunder defense tends to force that, and it could backfire.
There's some faint Ewing Theory potential to New Orleans. Zion Williamson is unquestionably the best player on this team, but Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Jonas Valanciunas struggle to fit around him. Without Zion, this team is worse talent wise but just makes so much more sense. Now Ingram gets to have the ball and be the star. Now Valanciunas can live in the post.
The Pelicans went 26-22 against teams .500 or better, fourth best in the West. They had a 28-14 road record, second to only Boston. They're a dominant first-half team. They have quirky strengths that make them a matchup nightmare — one that could even shock a No. 1 seed.
Betting Picks
Bet on a long series
The Thunder are a young team with some real flaws, and they're a roster that's going to have to answer some questions in the playoffs, questions that were not asked often in the regular season. The Pelicans and Kings are genuinely good teams, good enough to win a round and push for a second in the East. Oklahoma City will have a real matchup on its hands.
I think the series goes long, at least six games, so that's my best angle. OKC gets tested right out of the gates, and I think either underdog is live to win the series, particularly New Orleans.
If it's the Pelicans and they're badly discounted because of the Williamson injuries, I will likely be tempted by Pelicans +2.5 take it to at least six, and maybe by the series price outright.
Props & Other Angles
We only have three years of play-in data, but the results are pretty surprising. No. 8 seeds that snag the last spot and face a quick turnaround in Game 1 are still 2-4 straight up against No. 1 seeds, obviously as huge road underdogs. The same is true for No. 7 seed play-in winners against No. 2 seeds, 2-4 SU as well.
I'll call it now. If the Pelicans survive Friday night, New Orleans goes to Oklahoma City and pulls off the opening playoff weekend upset special. Give me a New Orleans Game 1 moneyline.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Case for the Clippers
The Mavericks are getting a lot of steam and public attention after winning 16 of 18 before punting the final two games of the season, but only one win in that stretch came against a current top-six seed, and that was on a miracle Kyrie Irving shot.
Dallas compiled most of those wins against mediocre and bad teams, and the Mavs did so with outlier defense. It's Defensive EFG leapt from 26th to third from Feb. 5 forward, and that just doesn't pass the smell test. The Mavs still rank bottom six defensively in both second-chance and fast-break points allowed, and the team is 22-26 against teams .500 or better, worst among remaining West teams.
Since 2016, Kawhi Leonard has lost one playoff series he finished healthy (and led 3-1 in that one). In 72 games during that stretch, he's scored almost 29 points per game on 51/39/88 shooting with an 11.0 BPM in a massive minutes load and a huge defensive presence. When Playoff Kawhi is available, he's pretty consistently turned into slightly bigger Michael Jordan.
Luka Dončić is awesome, but Playoff Kawhi is just as good, and Dončić is already maxed out on usage and minutes while Leonard, James Harden and Paul George all have a strong history of ramping up minutes and defense in the playoffs. The Clippers have another gear to get to, and they also have a big bench advantage and a massive coaching advantage in Ty Lue over Jason Kidd.
If Kawhi and Harden can offset Dončić and Kyrie Irving, then PG, Russell Westbrook, Norman Powell and the rest of the Clippers are just the better collection of talent.
Dallas Mavericks
The Case for the Mavs
It doesn't really matter if Playoff Kawhi plays like Michael Jordan if he's not actually on the court. Leonard is already a question mark heading into the start of the series with knee inflammation, and he's failed to finish each of his last two playoff series and played 68 games this regular season, his most in ages. Harden (72) and George (74) also played their most in years.
The Mavs have the younger superstar, and Dončić has been absolutely phenomenal in his 28 playoff games. He's scored 32.5 points per game with nine boards and eight assists, and if we're making MJ comparisons, Jordan is the only other player in NBA history to score at least 30 a game in 25 or more playoff appearances.
And it's not just individual accolades. Dončić's teams have consistently outperformed expectations in the playoffs. He's played in five series, all of them as an underdog. All but one of those series went to at least six games, and the Mavs covered the series spread in four of the five and won two series outright as +245 and +240 dogs in 2020.
Dončić can win playoff games on his own and already has, and so has Irving. This team is red hot, Daniel Gafford and the role players are fitting in perfectly and the Mavs are the younger, healthier team.
Betting Picks
Split your bet between Clippers in 6 (+700, FanDuel) and Clippers in 7 (+460)
Dallas is extremely good at playing Luka Ball, which is effectively a worse version of the James Harden Rockets with less free-throw and rebounding advantages, in an era where the league's offenses have caught up some. That offense is great but no longer as much of an advantage, and Luka and the Mavs may have already maxed out those advantages. The Clippers have the better collection of talent and a huge edge at coach.
Expect a long series. Dončić's teams have played at least six games in four of five series, and Leonard's last seven series before last spring's injury exit also went at least six. Home court probably won't matter as much as which team's shots fall.
You can bet six or more games at around -200, but combine that with a Clippers pick by playing LA to win in six (+700) or seven (+460), splitting your bet between the two for an implied +217 at FanDuel.
Props & Other Angles
This is the best and most important series of the first round, but wade in carefully until we know more about Leonard. This might be a series to play game to game, and it's okay if you want to wait to bet the series later too once we have more information. Both teams will probably be available at longer prices later.
The way the bracket lines up, the winner of this series has a real chance to make a run, to the WCF or even Finals. Once we see a couple games and you feel confident in one of these teams, look to grab a future to win the West. I'm looking for a chance to bet the Clippers, but +600 isn't juicy enough yet with the Leonard unknowns.
Dončić is going to score a metric ton of points in this series, possibly by LA design. He's -120 at some books to lead the series in scoring. That's a smash anywhere under -175. Look to fade Harden scoring. His numbers against Dallas were muted when Kawhi and PG played — 14/5/3 and 8/4/7.
The Clippers dominated the offensive glass in the season series. Ivica Zubac only played 23 MPG but averaged 10.3 rebounds. He's a nice play at +150 for series rebounds leader.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Case for the Timberwolves
Minnesota's defense isn't just great — it's historically elite. The Timberwolves had a 109.0 Defensive Rating, a full +2.3 ahead of the No. 2 Magic. The Wolves led the Magic by as much as Orlando led No. 11. Minnesota finished 6.3 points better than league average (Relative DRTG), a huge margin.
Over the past three decades, I found 17 teams with a comparable profile — an elite defense that lapped the field and a roughly league-average offense. The good news for Minnesota is that 11 of the 17 teams made at least the Conference Finals, or 65%, almost two in three. Only two won the title, but only one of them lost in the first round — the 2008 Rockets, missing defensive stalwart Yao Ming.
Minnesota's path to victory is what it's been all season — with elite defense, led by Rudy Gobert at the rim and Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and others on the perimeter.
The Wolves have a real depth advantage and have been an elite home team, while the Suns have struggled on the road. Minnesota is also No. 1 in Second-Half Net Rating at +9.2, while Phoenix was worst in the league in the fourth quarter at -12.1. The Wolves want to grind out wins with defense, protect home court and close the job late.
Phoenix Suns
The Case for the Suns
The Suns are a matchup nightmare for Minnesota, perhaps the worst in the league. Phoenix has the offensive personnel to make the Timberwolves' incredible defense mostly irrelevant, even damaging, and Minnesota's offense just isn't good enough against Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal.
What good is all that elite rim protection against a team that ranks bottom three in points in the paint? Minnesota's entire defensive scheme is about positioning and forcing the team into tough 2s, and those are the exact shots the Suns want to take. Book, KD and Beal are just stepping right into those shots.
The Suns swept the season series, winning three times by double digits. They led by 22, 16 and 13 at the half in those games with a dazzling array of shooting and nightmarish offense from Minnesota. Edwards scored just 43 points in three games, and no Timberwolf topped four assists in any of the three games.
Fouls will be a problem too. The Wolves rely on free throws for offense, but the Suns barely foul; meanwhile, Minnesota's one real defensive flaw is that the aggressive Wolves foul a lot, and the Suns lead the league in free-throw rate. There are problems all over the place for Minnesota.
Betting Picks
Suns -1.5 (+155, bet365) | Sprinkle Suns sweep (+900)
This is just an absolute nightmare matchup for Minnesota. Phoenix's profile effectively makes Minnesota's strengths irrelevant. You beat the Suns with elite offense, not defense, and Minnesota's offense can't match blow for blow with Phoenix's stars.
This could be a really tenuous spot for this team and fan base emotionally too. Minnesota played all season with swagger and thought it was the No. 1 seed. Then the team collapsed late, fell into the worst bracket draw possible and now has to play the team it just got embarrassed by again. This could even turn into home disadvantage if the team loses belief and lets go of the rope.
The Suns are not a great team, but they're just the wrong matchup for Minnesota. Life ain't fair. Bet the Suns -1.5 to win in six or less, and nibble the sweep at +900 in case the Wolves lose the first two at home and lose faith.
Props & Other Angles
If you like series leader markets, most of them look pretty interesting — especially if the series is short, introducing more variance. The Suns had no player over six rebounds in two of the three matchups. The Wolves had no player hit five assists in a game. Neither team takes many 3s, already a high-variance market.
Karl-Anthony Towns looks mispriced at +800 for 3s leader. No one on either team averages even three 3s a game, and Minnesota badly needs KAT out there stretching this defense and making his mark on the series. If you don't think Towns can stay on the court, Naz Reid +5000 could be the play (DraftKings). He led the team in 3-point attempts against Denver.
Jusuf Nurkić will play as much as he can against all those Wolves centers. He was terrific in the season series, with eight steals and 18 assists in the three games. He may be a game-to-game play, though steals leader would be playable if you find the market, and +1000 assists leader could also be a look.
Denver Nuggets
The Case for the Nuggets
We've seen this movie before.
The Nuggets have won eight straight against the Lakers, one of only 16 LA losing streaks that long in the history of the franchise. That includes a Western Conference Finals sweep, a talked-about-all-offseason failed-revenge-night opener, and Kobe Night when the statue was unveiled. It's always the same.
The Nuggets starters typically get an early lead, the Lakers battle back and hang around, Denver closes things out late. Denver scores consistent, easy, efficient looks; the Lakers struggle to get their usual free throws and don't score well. Anthony Davis is maddeningly inconsistent, D'Angelo Russell is unplayable. Jokic averages 28.4 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 10.6 assists across the eight games, controlling every step of the way.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
Denver is the better team, and the Nuggets have all the little edges. LA wants to push the pace (No. 4 in the NBA), Denver likes it slow (No. 27), and these games consistently play out slow. LA ranks third in fast break points but Denver allows the 8th fewest and should make up what they allow against the Lakers' 27th-ranked transition defense. LA also ranks 27th in second-chance points allowed, and Denver is top 10 in offensive rebounding and has mashed the offensive glass in these matchups.
Those fast starts? The Lakers have a -4.0 Net Rating in the first quarter (22nd) vs. +14.8 for the Nuggets (second). Denver is +10.1 at home (third), and the Lakers are -4.1 (20th) on the road and start the series there. Everything sets up for L.A. to fall behind early and be forced to chase.
The Lakers are like an annoying gnat to the Nuggets. They'll pester and bug and hang around, but Jokic and Denver swat them away in the end. They always do.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Case for the Lakers
It's the playoffs, and LeBron James and Anthony Davis are healthy. That alone is reason to believe, especially for a team that just went from the play-in to the Conference Finals a year ago at this time. LeBron still has that extra gear when the games matter most.
The Lakers got a friendly whistle at home even against Denver, and that can break up the flow and get LA some easy points. The defense a year ago forced some uncharacteristically bad Jokic nights.
The Lakers also went 11-4 in three-point games and 4-1 in overtime. Los Angeles has lost eight straight, but the Lakers were almost always still in the game in the fourth quarter. Clutch play is more random than you'd think and doesn't carry over from season to season, or even from the regular season. Maybe Denver's fourth-quarter closeouts flip the other way, the Lakers steal a couple of close games, and now the champs are staring down the barrel at LeBron and Davis with the title defense on the line.
Betting Picks
Nuggets -1.5 (-140, DraftKings)
Just keep this easy. The Nuggets win this thing, and it ain't gonna take more than six. It probably won't even take this much, but this is some respect for LeBron.
The numbers don't lie. The Nuggets starters are far better than the Lakers. Denver is 5-2-1 in first quarters during this streak (+38) and 5-3 in fourth quarters, two of the Ls by a bucket protecting a comfortable lead.
The Lakers made a big stink about how competitive their sweep was, but it was still a sweep, and Denver is unbothered by this team. Jokic is clearly the best player in the series, LeBron or not, and he controls the game from start to finish. Denver should take care of business once again.
Props & Other Angles
Nuggets first quarters obviously look like a good play in games where you like Denver, especially home games considering the home-road splits. Be careful in Game 1, though. LA will be playing on three days of rest and LeBron knows it's his best chance to steal a road game and give the Lakers a shot. Game 2 on short rest will be a hammer spot for Denver. The Lakers have 25 double-digit losses this season, most of any postseason team, so don't be afraid to lay an alt line when you like Denver.
Jokic rebounds leader at +120 (BetMGM) is effectively a head-to-head bet against Anthony Davis. Jokic is at 13.4 RPG these last eight games to 11.0 for Davis, and Davis has outrebounded him only twice, with Jokic clearly ahead in head-to-head matchups all-time in both the regular and postseason. He should be favored.
Jokic 3s leader looks worth a nibble too at +10000 (bet365). He consistently gets 3s up to stretch Anthony Davis out away from the basket in this matchup, hitting 2.0-of-4.7 per game for 42% this stretch. Neither team shoots many 3s, and only Michael Porter Jr. (6.8 attempts per game) and Jamal Murray (5.8) take more 3s than that number — 100-to-1 is just too long.
Lastly, look to fade D'Angelo Russell. He just can't stay on the court defensively in this series and was benched by the time the WCF ends. Fade his points game by game and be sure to bet his series points per game under if posted.
