A new NBA season has arrived! With a TNT doubleheader on Tuesday night between the New York Knicks and the defending champs, the Boston Celtics, and a matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers, we are back in action.
Before the slate officially tips off, there's not a NBA season without win totals. So look no further, as Matt Moore has it all covered from every team in the west to every team in the east. Take a look at the best win total bets for the season and get in on the projections for the remainder of the league as well.
Let's start off with the cream of the crop, shall we?
Best NBA Win Total Bets for the 2024-25 NBA Season
Boston Celtics
Win Total: 58.2 (57.5 and 58.5's both in market) | Moore's Projection: 62.1
Boston is the most consistent great team in the league. Yes, they're the defending champions with a stellar starting five and multiple All-NBA-caliber players. But the reason why they're so trustworthy in the regular season compared to other great teams isn't their talent or playstyle. They come prepared for every single game. Boston isn't a try-hard squad like a Tom Thibodeau special, but they're also not a team that takes a lot of games off and gets bored.
Besides losing Porzingis for the start of the season, they return every piece of that rotation. They play in the weaker conference in a weaker division with the Nets' transition to rebuilding.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Win Total: 56.5/57.5 | Moore's Projection: 62.4
This is an insanely high number — especially for a team this young. Teams with totals this high go under way more often than over, as you'll see in our trends.
But the basketball side screams over and an absolutely elite regular-season team.
Here's how you rack up wins in the NBA: Play disciplined, smart basketball and be prepared with effort as many nights as you can. Beat the teams worse than you at a high rate, win at home, and find edges vs. the division teams you play more than the other teams. Finally, manage the standard injury problems every team faces by having redundancy built into your roster and beat the matchup problems every team faces with a roster of positional flexibility.
This might all sound like "be a good team," but there are a lot of contenders who don't often fit those categories well.
The Thunder, however, are all of that, all the time.
Philadelphia 76ers
Win Total 52.5 | Moore's Projection (If Normal Health): 56.8
In a perfect world, this is my strongest Eastern Conference play. I would bet the over. I would bet alternate overs. I would bet No. 1 seed plays. I would bet most wins. I would bet conference futures. I would bet title futures. I would bet it all.
But that universe is not the one we live in.
If they can get this team healthy for the postseason, they have a legit chance at winning the title. But we are so many years into this with the Sixers that you can't say a future bet on them has definable value. Volatility typically works in the favor of bettors, and if you want to take tail end results on this team, there's probably something there. Miss playoffs is +1300, No.1 seed is +500.
But I'll just go ahead and sit this one out and look for specific spots to bet Philly when I know everyone's playing, however rare that will be.
New York Knicks
Win Total: 52.5 | Moore's Projection: 49.7
So many things came together for the Knicks last season. Their Villanova experiment brought the team together and the chemistry and usual high effort you can expect from Tom Thibodeau teams boosted them to the third seed and 50 wins on the last day of the season.
They're a public team with a high win total. The Knicks won't be bad this season; they'll be good and dangerous when the playoffs come around. But the market has gotten ahead of the squad here. I'll bet the under.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Win Total 51.5/52.5 | Moore's Projection: 57.9
The offense is where there's a lot of growth. Minnesota was 17th in offense, schedule-adjusted last season. They didn't shoot a lot of 3's, as you would expect with their personnel (20th in 3-point rate), but they shot the lights out. The Wolves were 3rd best in overall 3-point percentage, but No.1 excluding garbage time via Cleaning The Glass.
They had trouble with turnovers (23rd in turnover percentage), 2nd chance points, and mid-range efficiency (20th). They were dragged down on the margins.
But their overall offensive profile was great, as you would expect under Chris Finch, with the 8th-best location-based expected eFG% vs. the 10th-best actual.
This offense might creep into the top 10 with a top-5 defense. That's far from outside expectation.
It's not that things can't go sideways with Minnesota. It's that it would take so much going wrong all at once. I will, with trepidation, bet the over on 51.5.
Denver Nuggets
Win Total: 51.5 | Moore's Projection: 49.5
The vibes are not tremendous. Jokic seems more and more fatigued by life in the NBA. He loves basketball but is largely bored with the NBA regular season. Michael Malone has pretty well-established conflicts with the front office's direction. Jamal Murray had issues staying healthy last year, struggled in the postseason mightily (and threw a heating pack?), and then struggled even more in Olympic play. No one knows what to expect from him at this point; he always starts slow on top of it.
All of the trends, vibes, roster construction leans to a heavier tail end of unders.
Milwaukee Bucks
Win Total 50.9 (low 50.5, high 51.5) | Moore's Projection: 49.1
TheBucks look like an easy target for a bounceback season. Milwaukee had the year from hell last year with the failed tenure of Adrian Griffin, trying to replace him at midseason with Doc Rivers, and a myriad of injuries including season-ending injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo that took away any chance of a playoff run.
They upgraded the roster with Taurean Prince, Delon Wright and Gary Trent Jr., adding a big wing, a defensive guard (to replace "perimeter defender" Malik Beasley who was woefully miscast) and a pure shooter in Trent.
I'm confident that the Bucks will be better this season, qualitatively. But I'm willing to bet they won't be better quantitatively. They've reached that stage where they are simply managing the regular season and trying to get their older starters healthy to the finish line.
That's a team ripe for an under.
Dallas Mavericks
Win Total: 49.5 | Moore's Projection: 55.4
Dallas was 25-5 vs. teams under .500 last season, 25-16 at home and 11-5 in the division. The Mavericks win the games they need to.
I remain a skeptic of Jason Kidd as a head coach, but I also have to admit last year was by far the best coaching job of his career. His assistants bring a lot to the table and he managed both egos and preparation better. Dallas had way fewer games where it was apparent it was out on the town the night before than in previous seasons.
Doncic is the consensus second-best player in the league, coming into camp in shape and is basically a lock for a top-3 MVP finish if healthy.
They have the guy. They have the roster. They have the schedule, even in a tough West.
I'm all in on Dallas.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Win Total: 48.5 | Moore's Projection: 48.5
The Cavaliers are an annual candidate for the breakout. They've got four star-caliber players (though Darius Garland has some work to do; we'll get to that). They have had an elite defense for multiple seasons. They have a top-level offensive engine in Donovan Mitchell and have added better depth over the past two seasons.
There's real danger when you take a team who should have won more last season and expect them to improve. But Cleveland statistically actually won one more game than they "should have" by Pythagorean expectation. So we dodge that bullet.
In betting, you're always looking for the "spot" to bet a team. The season-long spot for the Cavaliers is excellent and plays to the higher end outcomes. I'll bet division and Atkinson Coach Of The Year. If you want something more conservative, Cavaliers seeding under 5.5 at DraftKings is -120. I'll sprinkle on Cavaliers +850 2nd seed as well.
Orlando Magic
Win Total: 47.9 | Moore's Projection: 49.1
I'd love to buy in on this team. They're fun and disciplined. They're also mentally tough, they do not let go of the rope and have a lot of trust in what they can do if they stick with it. But the spot with an increased win total against a jump that typically spells regression as you'll see in the trends below is a scary proposition.
I think they're properly priced as the division favorite at a best price of -140. They should make the playoffs. This number feels a tad high for their win total but also, teams with their identity (i.e. great defense with a certified star offensive player) tend to win a lot of games.
The problem is that defense is rarely sticky enough to bank on.
Phoenix Suns
Win Total: 47.5 | Moore's Projection: 50.1
The roster upgrades are significant. Phoenix tried going without a point guard last season and the results were disappointing. They just needed someone to bring the ball up and set the offense. Tyus Jones is perfect for that, the king of assist-to-turnover ratio. He can get things organized and then space the floor while Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal work. Monte Morris provides a better backup point guard. Mason Plumlee is a better backup big, meaning that if Jusuf Nurkić is out or gets into foul trouble, they still have a rim protector big.
Phoenix trimmed a lot of the fat from the roster. They improved the coaching. They still have great stars. As long as they buy in, this is going to work.
Memphis Grizzlies
Win Total: 47.5 | Moore's Projection: 49.4
Memphis'win total is a popular over bet because oddsmakers are stuck in the dark trying to find the right number. Three seasons ago, the Grizzlies won 56 games against a win total of 41.5 with effectively the same core as they have now. Two seasons ago, they won 51 against a win total of 49.5. Then the wheels came off, Ja Morant was suspended for 25 games, everyone got hurt at once, and the Grizzlies had a year from hell last season.
So now the win total is somewhere in the middle. Their current win total of 47.5 is two lower than their win total in 2022 when they were younger and less developed, and 8.5 below how many wins they had in 2022.
Indiana Pacers
Win Total 47.1 (47.5's in the market with a few sparse 46.5's) | Moore's Projection: 46.0
I like this Pacers team. I want good things for this Pacers team. But the supporting structure and offseason moves are just enough to keep me away from buying in on them, at least for now.
If the offense doesn't click like last year and looks mortal while the defense remains sour, they're going to fall back into the play-in and be fighting for their playoff lives. If the defense makes any sort of jump while the offense remains elite with one of the best offensive engines in the league in Haliburton at the helm, then they can easily win 50-plus and be a top-four seed.
Sacramento Kings
Win Total: 46.5 | Moore's Projection: 45
I was ready to buy in. I was looking for the great vibes. I want no part of any "serious" future on the Kings for winning in the playoffs, but an over and division play seemed like a great idea. They added DeMar DeRozan, the Feel Good Hooper. The team wants to respond after a disappointing 2024.
And honestly, if preseason had gone well, I'd probably be buying in and upgrading my projection.
The offseason moves made them way better especially with the addition of DeMar DeRozan. I upgraded them by four points on power rating. The counter is that I have the Kings last season as -1.7 against an average team on neutral court. Their Pythagorean-expected-win-total-based power rating was only +0.7 last season. So they were, at best, a slightly above-average team headed into the offseason.
The Kings are better than last season, but they also over-performed last season. They've probably caught up to the West, but they haven't gotten a leg up.
New Orleans Pelicans
Win Total: 46.5/47.5 | Moore's Projection: 49.1
The floor for this team is really low, as in sub-.500. The ceiling is incredibly high, 50-plus wins and potentially the division title. I had anticipated wanting to go in on their high-end outcomes. There's a lot that works here. Their bench is venomous with Alvarado as the head of the snake.
But they're still a team that's not done building its final form, that made the Murray move to reshape their identity but only took the half-measure. With that, I'll remain on the sideline and hope they decide to commit to one version of this team or another.
Los Angeles Lakers
Win Total: 42.5/43.5 | Moore's Projection: 47.1
I bet the over early in the offseason, based purely on my projection. It was just a numbers play.
There are lost of number reasons to go the other way and bet an over, but as the number has dropped, I'm pretty locked in here.
For the negative, it's all about health. LeBron James played 71 games at age 39; Anthony Davis played 76. How are the Lakers possibly going to get anywhere near as good health for those two with James 40 years old and Davis' injury history?
There is also a terrifying trend to support the under. The Lakers were 11-4 in games decided by three points or less last season and made the playoffs. Those teams are 23-8 to the under in the following season since 2011.
So that doesn't feel good. My confidence in the Lakers was absolutely frozen by that stat.
Miami Heat
Win Total: 45.7 | Moore's Projection: 42
What does a successful season with Butler no longer the best player on the team look like? Can you build a good enough offense around Adebayo's skillset without a primary offensive scorer or creator?
Erik Spoelstra's the best coach in the game, no one disputes this. But there are limits to what he can accomplish and you've seen that the past two seasons, even with a fluke Finals appearance.
Miami has a lot of things to reinforce their floor: an elite coach, an elite organization, and an elite defender in Adebayo. They have good talent, they shouldn't be bad. But good enough to make the playoffs is honestly a question mark, and one I'm willing to bet against.
Golden State Warriors
Win Total: 43.7 (42.5 Over, 44.5 Under) | Moore's Projection: 41
The Warriors lost Klay Thompson, a fact that seems impossible, given how integral Thompson was to the Warriors in their dynasty. Some feel that Thompson was washed and that his absence won't hurt the Warriors in a vacuum, especially given their offseason additions of De'Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson, and Buddy Hield.
Last season, the Warriors won at a near-50 win (49.8) pace when Draymond Green and Stephen Curry played together. That's the lean here.
The young guys are better. And if anything, this roster seems much better built to optimize Steph and Dray than ever.
Houston Rockets
Win Total: 43.5 | Moore's Projection: 41
TheRockets are fun as hell.
They play tough, physical defense under Ime Udoka. They have so much good young talent they don't honestly have enough room in the rotation for all of them. They have good veterans like Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Steven Adams.
There's a lot to love about them.
A good question is how much theirwin total accounts for all this. Their win total a year ago was 31.5, and they cleared it by a full ten wins. They made the jump. But, can they make another one?
Total Projections for the Remainder of NBA Teams
Los Angeles Clippers
Win Total: 39.5/49.5 | Moore's Projection: 39.3
Thiswin total actually opened all the way up at 42 wins, and the market basically threw up all over that figure. Then Kawhi Leonard was announced not to be ready to participate in camp fully and is out indefinitely. So now it's moved 2.5 wins south.
James Harden has vowed to be aggressive this season, no longer having to fit in next to George and Leonard. There's a lot of meat on this bone. Harden isn't the same Harden he was in his MVP-candidate prime between 2015 and 2020. He's a little worse and his bad games are much worse. But night to night, he can still throw up 25-12 if need be.
San Antonio Spurs
Win Total: 36.5 | Moore’s Projection: 34.4
Just thinking about the Spurs stresses me out. Why? Because how do you possibly accurately project Victor Wembanyama?
We have no precedent here. We're in uncharted territory. We're Amy Adams and Jeremy Renner in "Arrival." We don't even know what language we're dealing with.
Wembanyama is one of the most impactful players in the NBA and he doesn't even know what he's doing a lot of the time. His footwork is inconsistent, he still gets bodied by bigger players (though that will happen less after he added 25 pounds in the offseason). He will bite on certain pump fakes and make other common young-player mistakes.
Plus they have more NBA-caliber guys in the rotation, and the guys who had to play up 1-2 spots in the rotation are now closer to where they should be. They'll be better.
How much better?
They won 22 games last season while actively not trying for half the season by playing Wembanyama at power forward with no point guard. Can they make a 15-game jump?
The hype is so high on Wembanyama going into his sophomore season.
Toronto Raptors
Win Total 30.5 | Moore's Projection: 28.5
You can find a lot of reasons for optimism on Toronto, more reasons for optimism than pessimism.
The key is when they have the combination of the new "core" of Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and center Jakob Poeltl. That combination had a +10.3 net rating. They only went 7-7 in those games, but that's still a full ten wins over the win total here.
The upward paths here are great, though. If someone, anyone, can knock down a 3-pointer. If Barnes stays healthy. If some actual continuity helps them. They need a few young guys to pop but there are a lot of options. Also, they have contracts to move like Bruce Brown that could bring in an impact player.
Utah Jazz
Win Total: 28.5/29.5 | Moore’s Projection: 22
Very simply, they are still a young, rebuilding team with one great star in Lauri Markkanen and several good supporting players, but ones who can't lift the floor.
Schedule-neutral, I project this team at 26 wins, but they play in the West and in a brutal division. Utah will very rarely be favored.
This roster also has so many unknowns that it wouldn't shock me if Utah was a surprise team. I still believe Hardy's a good coach and there are a number of players who can make leaps.
But the most likely outcome, the most logical outcome, is for this team to pursue a star to pair with Markkanen through the draft. Progress can be made without wins this season and that leads me to the under at this number.
Detroit Pistons
Win Total: 25.1 (low 24.5, high 25.5) | Moore's Projection: 29.3
The bar here is also incredibly low, but rising; the Pistons are tied for the biggest increase from their win total opener at 22.5. If this were to get to 27.5, I would no longer like the play but it would be a strong lean.
The East is so bad and so many teams will be scrambling for Cooper Flagg, a play-in spot is possible. But the Pistons' 2nd-best player is still Tobias Harris, their centers are all young, and this team was bottom-10 in both rim and 3-point shooting.
For now, I'm content with just banking on them getting above 25 wins.
Brooklyn Nets
Win Total: 20.5 | Matt Moore’s Projection: 14.8
TheNets are the team with the most reason to tank this season. The 2025 Draft features some spectacular prospects, with Cooper Flag, Ace Bailey, and more in this class. They just traded their best player in Mikal Bridges to their big brother in Manhattan. Their 2027 pick is swappable for Houston. This is the year to re-orient the franchise for the future.
Chicago Bulls
Win Total 27.5 | Matt Moore’s Projection: 25.7
If you think Zach LaVine is washed or a complete negative, then this is an easy play on the under. They moved DeMar DeRozan and have gone all in with Coby White, Patrick Williams, a castoff from theThunder in Josh Giddey who has real questions about shooting, and Ayo Dusunmu along with rookie Matas Buzelis (who the Bulls are actively tempering expectations on).
Charlotte Hornets
Win Total: 30.1 | Matt Moore’s Projection 29.1
The vibes with new coach Charles Lee are immaculate. They've upgraded the roster with more veteran talent, Brandon Miller should pop even more in Year 2, and LaMelo Ball once again has a chance at being healthy.
Ball, Miller, Josh Green (or Cody Martin), Miles Bridges and Mark Williams is a group with NBA experience coming into their own. The depth is not great, but there are some opportunities for players like Nick Richards, Grant Williams, and rookie Tidjane Salaun to have moments.
LaMelo has played 58 games across the past two seasons. The numbers say that when he's on the floor, his offensive impact has been great. If he can refine his shot selection which borders not on reckless so much as mystifying, and embrace this as Miller's team, he can reclaim his status as a premier talent.
Atlanta Hawks
Win Total: 35.6 | Matt Moore’s Projection: 34.8
Trae Young exists in a bizarre limbo. He is underrated by skill and talent, but overrated by his level of perceived responsibility for the team's struggles. I'll explain.
Young's one of the five or 10 best passers in the NBA. He can make any read from anywhere with whatever type of pass he needs. He can thread needles, reverse court and throw outlet dimes. He can hit the pocket, the weak-side corner, the flare. Whatever pass his team needs, he can make. He had a bad start to the season from 3-point range, but shot 42% from deep after the All-Star break. It was a blip, not a trend.
But there is a problem where no one thrives next to him. The Hawks have a talented roster that has contributed to no playoff series wins since the 2021 run. They added a well-regarded coach in Quin Snyder last year and it didn't matter.
Washington Wizards
Win Total: 20.7 | Moore's Projection: 16.4
This team just screams that they will eventually shut down or trade all the veterans and pivot to the draft. That's what's best for the franchise. But also, that's going to take less than 20 wins. Just to get a top-three spot and the lottery odds that go with it is probably going to require an under.
If theWizards get off to a hot start, say they start 10-9, there will be trades to cash in on improved value of the roster and reorient towards development.
This is a practical bet. The Wizards need to be bad and the numbers assume they'll be bad, not awful. They can't afford to be anything short of truly awful.
