The 2023-24 NBA season is here, but you still have a few hours to get your preseason futures picks in — so let's make some NBA predictions and picks for MVP and the rest of the NBA's regular season awards, which we went through on a recent episode of our award-winning "Buckets" NBA podcast.
In case you missed that, though, here are my best bets for MVP, Most Improved Player, Defensive Player of the Year and more.
NBA Predictions: Picks for MVP and Regular Season Awards
| MVP Pick: Jayson Tatum |
| Rookie of the Year Pick: Scoot Henderson |
| Defensive Player of the Year Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. |
| Most Improved Player Pick: Tyrese Maxey |
| Sixth Man of the Year Pick: Jrue Holiday |
MVP Pick: Jayson Tatum for MVP (+900, BetRivers)
I have a checklist for what I need from a player to be a true MVP contender.
What am I looking for? Age 24 to 28 years old. Scoring at least 25 points per game. Probably a top-two seed in your conference. And availability — you can't miss more than 11 games, unless you're Joel Embiid, apparently.
It seems overly simple, but 14 of the past 15 MVPs hit all but one of those four criteria, and nine of the 15 hit them all. Tatum checks all those boxes. He very well could end up the best player on the best team, which is just a traditional MVP argument.
The rest of the contenders — Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the like — have largely aged out of that 24-to-28 range. And even if I'm wrong here, at +900, this is a must-add to your MVP portfolio.
What do I mean by "MVP portfolio"? Well, I ended up being two units on Tatum, but I also have a unit on Luka Doncic and half a unit on SGA. Tatum is the main bet, though. You can real all about the reasoning for those and a deeper dive on Tatum's MVP case in my 2024 NBA MVP Odds & Picks column.
Rookie of the Year Pick: Scoot Henderson (+400, FanDuel)
Another award, another checklist. Who wins Rookie of the Year, you might ask?
It's a player who scores a lot — since 2004, the ROY winner has averaged 17.7 points per game, with all but one averaging at least 15. Fourteen of the past 21 ROYs led all rookies in scoring.
It's more than just scoring, though. Points + rebounds + assists is even more predictive than just points. But it's not about defense, efficiency or wins.
It is all about betting on a top draft pick; since the 1950s, only four award winners were drafted outside of the top 10, and only 13 of those 63 were drafted outside of the top 5.
That leaves us with two clear-cut favorites: Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson. Wemby is nearly an odds-on favorite at +125. But we know defense isn't really part of this award, which could cut against Wemby. Henderson is my pick for 2023-24 Rookie of the Year, and he's my outright favorite to win the award. I give him at least 40% odds at the trophy, nearly double the 21.3% implied by the +370 at FanDuel he was earlier this month — and at +400, I like this bet even better.
You can read an even more in-depth breakdown of how I'm analyzing Rookie of the Year in my How to Bet NBA Rookie of the Year column.
Defensive Player of the Year Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. (+600, DraftKings/BetRivers)
This is my absolute favorite preseason awards bet on the board.
Defensive Player of the Year is really a team award. Every DPOY since 2008 has played on a team with a top-5 defensive rating. All but three have been on a top-3 defense. I'm projecting the Grizzlies to be the No. 1 defense in the NBA this year, so we're already off to a good start.
In addition, reputation is king with Defensive Player of the Year. Every winner of this century has had previous votes for the award. Eighteen of the past 21 have had first-place votes before. Thirteen of the past 15 made all-defense the year before. Check and check for JJJ — because he won last year, and we love repeat winners for this award. There have been 41 DPOY awards all time; 26 of those have gone to the same 10 dudes, and we've had nine back-to-back winners. So once somebody wins, we just keep giving it to them.
I would make Jackson at least 25% to win the award, which would put him at +300 or something even shorter than that. We're getting +600. It's my favorite awards bet of the season.
By the way, I also bet a half-unit on Jrue Holiday to win Defensive Player of the Year at +3300 as my favorite awards long shot. We'll talk more about Jrue in a second.
Most Improved Player Pick: Tyrese Maxey (+1400, BetRivers)
This was +1600 when I first gave it out on the "Buckets" podcast, and it could drop day by day, really, because this is a bet on the James Harden situation going sideways in Philadelphia. And boy, do I like to bet on James Harden stuff going sideways.
For MIP, we need a young player between 22 and 25 years old entering his fourth or fifth season who's primed to make an All-Star-level jump with a commensurate bump in scoring. Maxey is that guy if Harden is out of the picture. Otherwise, I don't know if there's enough usage to go around with Harden and Embiid in the way. But if Harden is out of the way, either because he's just not playing prior to a trade or because he has been traded, then I could see Maxey jumping to 27 points per game and be in the running for All-NBA.
I love this dude. This is a "now or never" bet, because the number is already dropping. One book has Maxey at +700 as a co-favorite, so shop around.
Sixth Man of the Year Pick: Jrue Holiday (+2000, bet365)
To be clear, I can't recommend this as a bet anymore, because the line has moved way too much. When we first started recommending Holiday as our Sixth Man of the Year bet, he was +7500. Now, the best line is +2000 at bet365, with FanDuel close behind at +1900.
It also looks much more likely that Holiday will start, reading the tea leaves, which makes this a no-bet at this point. He was and is my pick to win the award, however. When looking for a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, we want a 16-to-18 PPG scorer, preferably a guard, on a 50-win playoff team. That's Holiday — if he comes off the bench often enough to win the award, that is.
