We're getting closer to the NBA regular season, but there's still some preseason action for bettors to jump on. On Wednesday night, we get a matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks.
Remember, betting on preseason games is totally different than betting the regular season: Rosters are fluid, minutes are in flux and there is typically less motivation to actually win because, well, the games count for nothing.
Find out how they are approaching Wednesday's primetime preseason matchup below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: I don’t have faith in the preseason-Bucks. Milwaukee’s lack of preseason motivation seems to be more present than Brooklyn’s and can be seen in their respective minutes distributions.
The Bucks’ top three in total minutes this preseason are MarJon Beauchamp (99.4), Jordan Nwora (93.8) and Sandro Mamukelashvili (86.1). While part of that is because the Bucks didn’t play any of their starters last night in Chicago, if you look at the minutes-per-game stats, those same players round out the top three in the same order.
Meanwhile, the Nets top three in total minutes consist of Ben Simmons (44.5), Kevin Durant (44.3), and Royce O’Neale (42.4). I’ll save you the stats that argue which of those trios I think is better.
And speaking of talent, Giannis Antetokounmpo has only played in one preseason game for the Bucks so far, which was in last week’s loss to the Hawks in the Abu Dhabi Games. That means not only has Milwaukee played two more games in the last week, they’ve also had to travel over 7220 miles in between.
The preseason stats also favor Steve Nash over coach Bud in this spot, and while Nash’s sample size isn’t anywhere near large enough to consider significant, we can look to Bud’s history for some reassurance.
According to Bet Labs, coach Bud’s preseason record is 29-24 ATS, but he’s 14-14-0 as a favorite, 9-14-0 at home and only 7-13 ATS as a preseason favorite at home, which comes out to 35%.
While I don’t know exactly who will suit up tonight, I like Brooklyn +3. Even if Milwaukee plays their starters, Bud will tilt playing time in favor of the younger players with something to prove.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Brandon Anderson: Preseason doesn't matter, right? The results certainly don't matter much, especially to a team with a championship banner hanging in the rafters and the recent smell of champagne still wafting through the locker room. Who cares if you win a preseason game when you've already won everything?
That sort of logic makes sense most of the time, but the Bucks head into their final game of the preseason tonight and there's one number I think they do care about: Zero.
Milwaukee is a fat 0-4 right now in the preseason and has looked lethargic and lost at times after a trip to Abu Dhabi, and the team clearly misses Khris Middleton. Most of the time that would seem like a spot to fade.
But in this case, I think it actually gives the Bucks some underrated motivation.
Milwaukee surely considers itself title contenders, maybe even favorites, and a team that good should not go 0-for-the-preseason.
You can't exactly make a statement on a Wednesday night in mid-October, but for games where no one cares much, I'll take a little motivation edge. I like the Bucks to push for a win and get rid of that zero in the wins column, so I'll take the Bucks to win and cover their final preseason game.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Joe Dellera: The Nets take on the Bucks tonight in a preseason showdown between winless teams. Neither necessarily cares about the outcome of these preseason contests since they have great aspirations as the regular season approaches.
This is the second game of a back-to-back for the Bucks and it was a travel day for them as well. They may be a little flat as the conditioning is not necessarily there for the deeper bench. On top of that, the Bucks just returned home on Sunday after playing games in Abu Dhabi. This team has traveled some miles recently.
For the Nets, it is evident that there are still a few growing pains as he, Benjamin Simmons, and Kyrie Irving get accustomed to playing alongside each other. While they have elite offensive talent, that can take time to fully develop.
This total has moved from 222.5 to 228 at the time of this writing. In the Preseason, when the total opens at 220 or higher and increases at all, the under is 36-22-1 (61%) for a 19.5% ROI, per Bet Labs. This coupled with the Bucks’ recent travel, and the Nets’ lack of cohesion has me betting against a high scoring affair.
