The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks have a pivotal Game 2 Wednesday night with the Heat in good position to take a 2-0 series lead before heading back to South Beach for Games 3 and 4. This matchup sets up for a interesting one when it comes to PrizePicks plays.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in NBA Playoffs slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player projections in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Jrue Holiday More Than 28.5 Points + Assists
As of this writing, Giannis Antetokounmpo is considered doubtful. If he is ultimately ruled out, the Bucks will need more from Holiday and Khris Middleton to avoid going into a 0-2 hole. Personally, I have more trust in Holiday carrying the load without Antetokounmpo.
Over the last two years, Holiday has played 24 games without Antetokounmpo, including a regular season finale last year where Holiday started, immediately took a personal foul, and was subbed out. Removing that game, Holiday has hit this projection in 16-of-23 games without Antetokounmpo, averaging 31.7 points + assists in that span. He also has hit this projection in seven of the last 10 games he has played without Antetokounmpo this season with an average of 33.1 points +assists.
Against Miami, Holiday has hit this projection in three of the five games this season. He had 35 points + assists in a game without Antetokounmpo in January. He also reached that mark in two other games where Antetokounmpo started and ultimately left the game, including on Sunday. Roughly, we'll need about 21 points and nine assists from Holiday to get more than this projection. However, I would not be surprised if he does it with just points.
Gabe Vincent More Than 12.5 Points + Assists
Staying in Milwaukee, the Heat also suffered a key injury in game one. Guard Tyler Herro suffered a broken hand and is out for the next four-t0-six weeks. Without Herro, Gabe Vincent stepped up and had 15 points and six assists. Herro is a secondary playmaker for Miami, averaging 4.2 assists in addition to 20.1 points per game.
Without Herro, the ball will be in Jimmy Butler's hands even more after he had 35 points and 11 assists in game one. You would expect slowing down Butler is the focus of the Bucks' defensive game plan. Vincent played 33 minutes in game one and I would expect more minutes for Kyle Lowry as well. However, I am looking at Vincent tonight, largely because of the assists in this combo.
Looking at other books, Vincent's assists projection is at 2.5, which reflects his season average. However, I expect him to get more than this projection, particularly without Herro. Even if he has four or assists instead of six, that still puts in a good spot for this combo. Vincent is a player that gets the majority of his points beyond the arc.
He hit four 3s in five attempts and made five of six shots overall. Vincent shattered this combo in game one. However, if he hits three 3s for nine points and dishes out four assists, he will top this number again tonight. Depending on his minutes, he may even hit this projection in the first half.
