The Sacramento Kings face off against the Dallas Mavericks tonight for the right to take on the Grizzlies in an all-or-nothing matchup for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.
Read below for my NBA player props for Kings vs. Mavericks on Wednesday, April 16.
Kings vs. Mavericks Player Props for Wednesday, April 16
- Anthony Davis Over 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- PJ Washington Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
- Keon Ellis Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks
Anthony Davis Over 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Kings vs. Mavericks, 10 p.m. ET
Anthony Davis hasn't played the Kings since being traded to Dallas, but he's busted Domantas Sabonis' ass in the past. He put up 36-15-8 against Sabonis in December, 21-19-5 over a week before that, and so on.
Davis will be the Mavericks' focal point, and the Kings still haven't produced a quality NBA defense since the early 2000s.
AD went over 41.5 PRA just three times in Dallas of the nine games he has played, but Davis has only played more than 31 minutes once.
You would think we'll get to at least 34-36 minutes here, with a favorable defensive match-up and a do-or-die game for the season, for an organization who allegedly sees themselves as competitive
Pick: Anthony Davis Over 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
PJ Washington Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
Kings vs. Mavericks, 10 p.m. ET
PJ Washington ended the season hitting at least two threes in five of nine, which is cool, but this is really about the Kings… again.
Sacramento allows 38.5 three-point attempts per 100 possessions — 11th most in the NBA. But teams are shooting 38.1 percent on threes against the Kings… that's the highest mark in the NBA. Translation: Sacramento is statistically the worst at three-point defense.
Why Washington? It’s the prop that makes the most sense to me among what’s available, and he'll absolutely need to be on the corners and wings spotting up to stretch this Kings defense.
Pick: PJ Washington Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-150)
Keon Ellis Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks
Kings vs. Mavericks, 10 p.m. ET
This one is plus money, yet I think you can arguable is the most feasible. Keon Ellis sailed over 2.5 steals + blocks in five of seven to end the season, and because of his defense, he's a guy that could jump from hovering around 30 minutes to push toward 40 minutes tonight.
As an example, last year — in two Play-In games — Ellis logged six stocks in 39 minutes against the Warriors and two in just 27 minutes against the Pelicans, a game that got away from Sacramento in the latter stages.
Still, if Ellis is looking at 35-plus minutes, I think this is doable.
Pick: Keon Ellis Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (-115)
