This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.
Friday’s analysis will cover the following three props for Game 4 of the NBA Finals featuring the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers at 9 p.m. ET:
- Kyle Korver (Cavaliers) over/under 7.5 points
- J.R. Smith (Cavaliers) over/under 9 points
- Andre Iguodala (Warriors) over/under 7.5 points
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Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool and our FREE Game 4 Props Sheet.
Kyle Korver Under 7.5 points (-140)
9 p.m. ET | ABC
Korver seems way down on the pecking order for the Cavs at the moment. He’s averaging just 14.7 minutes per game in the NBA Finals and barely played even 10 minutes in Game 3 thanks to Rodney Hood’s emergence. Through three games in the series, Korver has scored only four total points, and he’s going to have to shoot well over 50% from the field to hit the over on this prop given his current role for Cleveland.
J.R. Smith Over 9 Points (-125)
9 p.m. ET | ABC
Unlike Korver, Smith has seen a ton of action in this series, averaging 34.4 minutes per game. Smith's big problem has been his shooting numbers; he’s shot just 30.3% from the field and 30.0% from 3-point range. No one is going to confuse Smith with one of the splash brothers, but those numbers suggest he’s in line for positive regression after shooting 40.3% from the field and 37.5% from 3-point range during the regular season, numbers which increased to 41.6% and 38.3% when playing at home. Smith has still managed to eclipse nine points in three of his past four contests and has the ability to go well over this prop if his shot starts falling.
Andre Iguodala Under 7.5 Points (-115)
9 p.m. ET | ABC
Iguodala made his return from injury in Game 3 but was limited to just 22 minutes of playing time. He managed to score eight points in those limited minutes, but he shot 3-of-4 from the field and 2-of-2 from the free-throw line in that contest, percentages which are clearly unsustainable over a larger sample. He will likely remain limited in some capacity in Game 4, which will make it difficult for him to approach the over on this prop.
All lines accurate as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Friday, June 8.
