The NBA season is off and running, and prop betting season is officially open for business.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Saturday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props focus on three of the slate’s four games:
- Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks: 7 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves: 7 p.m. ET on NBATV
- Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers: 9:30 p.m. ET
Let's dive in.
Blazers PF Zach Collins
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-140)
I’m going back to the well with Collins today. His rebounding numbers are down to start the season — he’s grabbed just nine boards through his first two games — but his playing time is way up. He’s averaged approximately 31 minutes per game to start the season, so he should eventually see some progression with his rebound numbers. Collins ins’t an elite rebounder by any stretch of the imagination, but he did average 8.6 rebounds per 36 minutes last season.
As long as Collins continues to play big minutes, his rebounding numbers should improve. I like the over up to -160.
Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns
THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (-130)
If the first two games are any indication, Towns is ready for a monster season. He’s dominated as a scorer, displaying his trademark efficiency while increasing his volume, and he’s also improved as a distributor. He’s averaged 8.5 potential assists per game (per NBA.com), which represents a huge increase from his average of 6.2 last season.
The prop market has yet to adapt to Towns’ increased assist potential this year. He averaged 3.4 assists per game last season, and he’s on pace to set a new career-high this year. I would play the over up to -160.
Lakers SG Avery Bradley
THE PICK: Under 9.5 points (-115)
Bradley is part of a deep rotation for the Lakers’ backcourt. They had six players log at least 20 minutes in their last game — Bradley, Danny Green, Troy Daniels, Quinn Cook, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Alex Caruso — which obviously limits the ability for Bradley to make much of an impact. He’s averaged just 25 minutes per game through his first two contests.
When he is on the court, he still doesn’t get many chances to score the basketball. LeBron and Anthony Davis are dominating the usage for the Lakers right now, and Bradley’s usage rate of 15.6% ranks merely sixth on the team. He’s scored nine points or fewer in each of his first two games, and it seems like he’ll need a hot shooting night to hit the over in today’s contest.
I have no problem fading Bradley given the Lakers’ rotation at the moment. I would play the under up to -130.
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