It's time for a same-game parlay for the NBA Playoffs. Tonight, we'll look at Minneapolis, where the Timberwolves host the Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
Each day, we have best bets from our analysts in the NBA, NHL and MLB that cover sides, totals and even niche markets like player props — and they have a knack for winning bets.
So, let’s take some of their +EV bets and put them in a same-game parlay for tonight's showdown.
As recreational bettors, we all like to throw them together occasionally, so let’s do it responsibly and create a fun and low-stakes SGP.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Game 1 Same-Game Parlay
- Dallas Mavericks +4.5
- Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points
- Mike Conley Under 6.5 Assists
Parlay Odds: +425
Dallas Mavericks
+4.5 vs. Timberwolves
When two of our experts are on the same play, that only gives me more confidence in wanting to use it for a leg in a same-game parlay. Both Bryan Fonseca and Andrew O’Connor-Watts are on the Mavericks tonight to cover the spread with similar reasoning:
Fonseca: “Game 1 feels like a letdown spot for the Timberwolves. And given the sheer physicality of the Wolves' last series, I'd lean Dallas to win outright. I think Dallas is more live in this series than people realize.”
O'Connor-Watts: “Teams coming off a Game 7 are just 34-54 ATS (38.6%) in Game 1 of the following series since 1988. I think Dallas has the lineup versatility to challenge a potentially tired Minnesota team, and I like the Mavericks +4.5 and a sprinkle on the moneyline to win a half-unit.”
Follow Bryan Fonseca and Andrew O'Connor-Watts in the Action App.
Luka Doncic
Over 28.5 Points
Despite making it again to the Western Conference Finals, a lot of criticism still falls on Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic. The topics may range from his health, his shot selection or even his treatment of officials.
Despite the critiques, Joe Dellera isn’t buying it and instead is banking on Doncic to come up big in Game 1 tonight:
“Overall, Doncic has averaged 32.9 points per game, but he's had some difficulty in the playoffs, scoring just 27.3 a night.
"Much of this was due to matchups, though. The Clippers could throw a mix of Kawhi Leonard and Terance Mann at him, while Oklahoma City deployed Lu Dort. The Timberwolves also have elite wing defenders, such as Jaden McDaniels, who I expect to start on Doncic. Ultimately, Doncic's size should give him the edge.
“Also, Luka was seemingly dealing with a knee injury throughout the Oklahoma City series but got into his stride to finish the series with 31- and 29-point performances. I’ll grab Luka to exceed 28.5 points, especially with him playing on extra rest.”
Follow Joe Dellera in the Action App.
Mike Conley
Under 6.5 Assists
Timberwolves point guard Mike Conley has been the steadying presence for the T-Wolves this season. Despite the 36-year-old missing some time last round to the Nuggets, he still managed to play 39 minutes in a winner-take-all Game 7.
While Conley will still be counted on to initiate the Timberwolves offense, Alex Hinton thinks we need to fade his assists prop for Game 1:
“Conley averaged 4.8 dimes in the four regular-season meetings against Dallas, reaching seven assists just once.”
“He also has had seven assists in just one of his last five playoff games. In his most recent outings, Conley recorded just five assists in Game 6 against Denver and four assists in Game 7.
“In the playoffs, the Mavericks are allowing only 103.2 points per game, ranking fifth in scoring defense and sixth in defensive rating. Tonight's total comes in at just 207.5 points, which suggests Conley may not have many potential assists.”
Follow Alex Hinton in the Action App.
Disclaimer: Parlays have a significantly lower chance of winning compared to betting each leg of the same-game parlay on its own. Those percentages only decrease with the more legs you add to the parlay. Keep your expectations in check, and please bet on these responsibly for recreation.
