On Friday night, the Denver Nuggets (2-2) will play the Minnesota Timberwolves (2-2) in a rematch of last season's Western Conference Semifinals.
Continue below for my NBA same game parlay for Nuggets vs Timberwolves and NBA picks tonight.
NBA Same Game Parlay
Nuggets vs Timberwolves Parlay
- Jamal Murray Under 19.5 Points (-130)
- Timberwolves -4 (-112)
- Christian Braun to Score 8+ Points (-260)
Parlay Odds: +305 on DraftKings
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Jamal Murray Under 19.5 Points (-130)
There are no two ways about it: Jamal Murray has struggled since the end of last season when he suffered a calf strain that hindered his performance in the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
Unfortunately, he has looked a step slow and has been inconsistent in shooting the ball through his first four games of the 2024-25 campaign, hitting only 37.3% of his field goal attempts.
Now, Murray will have to face the Timberwolves' suffocating perimeter defense, which will rotate Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels on him throughout the game; they will be able to hide Mike Conley off the ball against a player with limited self-creation skill in Christian Braun.
The length and athleticism of Edwards and McDaniels make this a matchup nightmare for Murray. If he were healthy, this matchup would be more manageable; however, he clearly is not in 100% health.
Additionally, in seven games of the Western Conference Semifinals series against Minnesota last season, Murray only knocked down 40.3% of his shots from the floor for merely 18.4 points per game, far less than what we have come to expect from one of the great playoff performers.
Further, Minnesota is allowing the fewest points to opposing shooting guards in the NBA thus far due to Edwards' defensive intensity and prowess. Don't think for a minute that the Wolves won't cross-defend in this matchup.
The hope for Murray is that he can return to his previous dominant form, but I don't see that happening here.
Pick: Jamal Murray Under 19.5 Points (-130)
Timberwolves -4 (-112)
The Nuggets' bench cannot be trusted.
Head coach Mike Malone has already made a concerted effort to avoid digging into his bench as much as humanly possible. What other reason could there be for playing his starters Thibodeau-like minutes in late October?
Through its first four games, Denver's bench ranks dead-last in net rating (-12.1), effective field goal percentage (38.6%), and total rebounding percentage (43.0%). You can't make this up.
And, this Nuggets team has to be exhausted after back-to-back road games that went into overtime earlier this week. Sure, they had a few days to recover, but I don't trust them to be able to build a lead big enough that their bench can't give right back.
This Nuggets team will continue to struggle in these spots (on the road against top-tier teams) until they get an answer for their bench unit, whether by trade or improved play. I'll take a physical Minnesota team that is undoubtedly fuming from a home loss against the Mavericks, who knocked them out of the postseason.
Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -4 (-112)
Christian Braun to Score 8+ Points (-260)
Remember that cross-defense I mentioned earlier? I am referring to the matchup that will put Mike Conley, a notoriously poor defender, on Braun while Edwards hawks Murray.
Braun has been fantastic in replacing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's perfected 3-and-D role in Denver. Thus far, Braun has averaged 14 points per game on 53.8% shooting from the field and 36.4% from 3-point land; he has eclipsed this line in all four of the Nuggets' games.
Further, Braun's volume has been promising, as he's averaging just shy of 10 field goal attempts per game.
I like the matchup. There should be some back-door cuts, finishes in transition, and several 3-point attempts for Braun here.
Minnesota's defense will be swarming Jokic and Murray, paving the way for Braun to reach double-digit points in what should be the sweat-free leg of this parlay.
Pick: Christian Braun To Score 8+ Points (-260)
