Sports writers at Action Network tend to have a talent for winning bets. Well, let’s take some of their +EV bets and put them in a Same-Game Parlay.
Each day, we have best bets from our analysts in the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB that cover sides/totals or even niche markets like player prop bets. As recreational bettors, we all like to indulge in our degen side occasionally. So, when the time comes, let’s do it responsibly and create a fun and low-stakes SGP.
Today's matchup we’ll use is in the NBA Playoffs for Game 4 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks on Monday, May 13.
Thunder vs. Mavericks Same-Game Parlay: Game 4
- Daniel Gafford Over 9.5 Points
- Over 215
- Thunder +1.5
Parlay Odds: +525
Daniel Gafford
Over 9.5 Points
The pickup of center Daniel Gafford by the Mavericks at the trade deadline has been a huge boost for Dallas thus far.
Having a reliable option down low is essential for the Mavericks’ offense, and Alex Hinton thinks we need to keep banking on Gafford’s ability to get easy baskets in the paint:
"A Mavericks center has cracked double figures in the first three games of this series. In Games 1 and 2, that center was Daniel Gafford when he scored 16 and 13 points, respectively, to easily surpass this projection."
"In Game 3, Gafford played just 19 minutes. He left the game a few times, but he was still only short of 10 points by one basket. He's not listed on the injury report tonight and also got a few more hours to rest with Saturday's game being an afternoon tip."
"Prior to Saturday's game, Gafford had scored 13 points or more in four consecutive games against Oklahoma City.”
Follow Alex Hinton in the Action App.
Full-Game Total
Over 215
Both of these offenses have been elite at times this season, but in this series, the game total has gone under in two of three games.
Chris Baker explains that despite the game total plummeting by five points between Game 3 and Game 4, don’t be scared to take the over:
"First of all, this series is not being played at a slow pace as these teams are averaging about 95 possessions per game each."
"That’s fast for a playoff series, so then why have these games been going under? Games 1 and 2 went under because Dallas posted high offensive rebound rates and paired them with awful shooting performances."
"Offensive rebounds paired with missed shots equal long possessions and lots of time off the clock without points. We saw in Game 2 that Dallas actually made some shots and that game went over the total fairly easily."
Follow Chris Baker in the Action App.
Oklahoma City Thunder
+1.5 vs. Mavericks
Although the Thunder are trailing the series 2-1 and dropped Game 3 in Dallas, the growing sentiment with bettors is the value is on OKC — especially in Game 4.
According to Ray Monohan, this is a good spot for OKC to step up and take Game 4 given how close Game 3 was:
"Oklahoma City needs to get back to leaning on its defense. It's only given up 96.7 points per game on average this postseason, and it's been able to do it with its ability to force turnovers and close out on shooters so well."
"OKC has proven it can win on the road this postseason, and it catches Dallas here a bit banged up. Luka Doncic has been hobbling all over the place and that's eventually going to catch up to him."
Follow Ray Monohan in the Action App.
Disclaimer: Parlays have a significantly lower chance of winning compared to betting each leg of the same-game parlay on its own. Those percentages only decrease with the more legs you add to the parlay. Keep your expectations in check, and please bet on these responsibly for recreation.
