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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 220.5 -110 / -110 | +360 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 220.5 -110 / -110 | -450 |
A fourth-quarter 13-0 run from Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets to force overtime in Game 4 was not enough to pull away with a win and series sweep over the Minnesota Timberwolves. As a result, the Nuggets will travel back to Denver with hopes of closing their first-round matchup in front of their fans.
Of all contests on Tuesday's slate, this game has the potential to be both competitive and fun throughout, which is excellent for props. Here's how I'm crafting a same-game parlay centered around the Nuggets' trio against the Timberwolves tonight.
NBA Same Game Parlay Odds & Pick
The Parlay: (+120)
- Jamal Murray O4.5 Assists (-285)
- Nikola Jokic O9.5 Rebounds (-350)
- Michael Porter Jr. 2+ 3 Pointers Made (-330)
Jamal Murray Over 4.5 Assists
The 'Blue Arrow' has been thriving as a facilitator next to Nikola Jokic in the Nuggets' offense and finally looks to be playing big minutes consistently in the playoffs.
In the playoffs, his playing time has increased from 32.8 to 37.8 minutes per game. Murray has notched at least five or more assists in 24 of his past 25 games (96%), when he played at least 32 minutes.
As for the matchup, per NBA Advanced stats, Jamal Murray is 5-of-29 (22.2%) from the field with five turnovers when being guarded by Nickeil Alexander-Walker during the series. The Timberwolves' guards' length has made Murray's shots difficult, forcing him to pass for better teammate looks.
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Rebounds
Let's focus on Jokic's rebounds prop. The MVP candidate's hit rates have been night and day in Ball arena compared to when he's on the road: 13.1 rebounds per game at home compared to 10.6 on the road.
To expand further, Jokic collected 10 or more rebounds in 21 of his past 23 home games (91.3%) when playing at least 28 minutes. This hit rate is very favorable and makes for a safe parlay piece.
Michael Porter Jr. 2+ 3-Pointers
Like his Murray, Michael Porter Jr. has recovered from his setbacks and is playing big minutes in head coach Michael Malone's circle of trust.
Porter Jr. averages 35.3 minutes of playing time per game in this series. When playing at least 30 minutes, including the playoffs, he's knocked down two or more 3-Pointers in 25 consecutive games.
Porter Jr. has played at least 11 or more fourth-quarter minutes in three straight games of the series. His strength on the court is to space the floor, and his length gives him an advantage in matchups vs. Anthony Edwards.
On the season he is averaging 3.0 made a game on 7.3 attempts. I expect at least six attempts, which should be enough opportunity to hit this leg.
