The 2024-25 NBA schedule was released on Thursday in its entirety, and there will be some subtle and important changes for bettors next season.
The NBA schedule is out. A couple nuggets:
– Average back-to-backs: 14.9. Up from last year, down 23% from a decade ago.
– No 4-in-5-nights, no 8-in-12-nights, no 18-in-30-nights.
– Teams won't play the day before or the day after "high-profile national TV games" this season.
— Tim Reynolds (@ByTimReynolds) August 15, 2024
For starters, the league has eliminated four-games-in-five-nights schedule spots, along with eight-in-12 and 18-in-30, lightening the load. Teams on four-in-five nights won at a 42% clip since 2003 via BetLabs (48% ATS). Those are oftentimes games treated as the most likely for rest opportunities as the league continues to try and stamp out load management.
Overall, back-to-backs are slightly up this season (average 14.9 per team), but for a pretty good reason. The league has shifted towards avoiding (for the most part) putting teams in high-profile national TV games on the second night of a back-to-back. In previous years, the league had instituted fine structures for teams resting players in big games on national TV but had still forced those teams into back-to-back no-rest spots.
We should see more signature matchups of stars and better games with this change. It'll also mean clearer opportunities for bettors who won't have to worry about the unknown "team got in at 3 a.m. and they're only here so they don't get fined" games.
Here are some other team notes to keep an eye on as you're shopping season futures:
- The Pelicans have the fewest rest advantage and disadvantage games this season, technically giving them the most "balanced" schedule in the league.
- The Wizards have the most three-games-in-four-nights and back-to-back games in the league with 15. The Pelicans and Suns are tied for 2nd with 14, and the Thunder, Kings, Warriors, and Hornets are tied for third with 13 each.
- The Hawks, Knicks, and Rockets are tied for the most games with more than one day off, while the Mavericks have the fewest, followed by the Nuggets, Blazers, Spurs, Heat, and Pacers.
- Chicago and the Golden State have the biggest difference between rest advantage and disadvantage, with 13 rest advantage games and nine disadvantage games.
- The Suns have the biggest gap between rest disadvantage and advantage, with six games on more rest, and ten games with less.
- The Lakers and Warriors — two play-in teams, one of which failed to make the playoffs and the other which was eliminated in five games in the first round — have a combined 75 games on national television (including NBATV) between them. The networks are going to try and claw for every viewer while they still have LeBron James and Steph Curry playing.
- The Bucks have a stretch during the season with 13 consecutive games against over-.500 teams from last season.
- The Pistons, Nets, Warriors, and Wizards are tied for the most games against teams on a back-to-back, home or away, with 18.
- The Suns, Celtics, Pacers, Mavericks, and Jazz have the least games against teams on a back-to-back.
- The Lakers have the most games with more than one day rest of any team, tied with the Bucks and Sixers.
The Nuggets, who lost their starting shooting guard, have questionable depth and have Jamal Murray who's massively struggled, have one of the toughest schedules, as well as a win total above 50 (52.5). They're also ranked No.1 in easiest SOS via Positive Residual, but that takes into account travel and altitude.
Phoenix came down with a tough schedule. They are tied for most back-to-backs, second in 3-in-4 back-to-backs, and tied for 2nd-least games against teams on back-to-backs. Their opponents are more rested on average, than they are. That's a significant factor with a thin roster in a tough Western Conference.
Houston is tied for most back-to-backs, but very few of them are on a 3rd-in-4-nights. Meanwhile, they are tied for the most games with two or more days of rest.
Boston came away with a very moderate schedule, low in back-to-backs and moderate in rest games.
While every team plays 82 with all but Indiana and San Antonio (thanks to the game in Paris) with 41 home and 41 away, these micro differences can help shape the season. However, bettors should be cautious with projecting too much off of schedule. If you go through a tough rest schedule place but you're healthy and the opponents are not, that can negate those things. Much of the season is dictated not just by who or when you play, but what conditions are in place for those games.
We'll have more on the NBA schedule in the coming days as part of our preseason coverage here at Action Network.
