Professional bettors got down on four games yesterday, with differing results depending on the closing number.
It's important to note that picking the right side is only half the battle. Sharps are also laser focused on getting the best number possible, knowing that a single half-point could end up being the difference between a win, loss or push.
After analyzing Thursday’s six-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two NBA bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Cavs (moved from +6 to +4.5)
The Cavs lost LeBron in the offseason and now will be without Kevin Love, who is out indefinitely with a toe injury. Add in the fact that Denver is 6-1 and Cleveland is 1-6 and that's all the public needs to know. Nuggets in a blowout.
This game opened at Nuggets -6. Despite receiving 75% of bets, Denver has fallen to -4.5. This reverse line movement indicates wiseguy action on the Cavs.
Pros at Pinnacle, Heritage, ABC and Buckeye all got down hard on the Cavs between +5 and +6, triggering six separate steam and reverse line moves.
The Cavs are receiving only 25% of bets but 45% of dollars, which makes them a fit for the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Tickets vs Money NBA Spread (54.8% against the spread, +37.78 units, 6.8% return on investment since 2005).
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
8 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 216 to 221)
In a league where scoring is up across the board, two of the NBA's best defensive teams meet up tonight at the TD Garden.
The Celtics are allowing only 97.6 points per game — best in the league — while the Bucks allow just 104.1 points per game, good for fourth-best overall.
With these trends in mind, public bettors are somewhat torn on which way to go with this over/under. But sharps have taken a clear side.
This total opened at 216. Currently 54% of bets are taking the over. However, the over is also getting 78% of dollars.
This massive bets vs. dollar discrepancy indicates moderate public support but heavy wiseguy money on the over.
Pros at 5Dimes and Sportsbook hammered the over 215 and over 216.5 early this morning. Later this afternoon, Goodfellas at the Greek steamed the over 219.5.
This overload of sharp action has pushed the total up to 221.
An added bonus for sharp over backers: Mitchell Ervin and Mark Lindsay are two of tonight's refs. Unders have lost -65.04 units combined since 2005 when Ervin and Lindsay officiate games.
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