In heavily bet games, sharps and squares often find themselves on opposite sides, which makes sense. Sportsbooks will shade lines to account for the liability that popular bets generate, and sharps tend to pounce on the inflated numbers.
On tonight's NBA Playoff slate, though, sharps and public bettors have actually agreed on a number of occasions, as the pros have hit all three of tonight's matchups.
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Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors
8 p.m. ET | TNT
Sharp angle: Raptors (moved from -8.5 to -10.5)
The Magic stole Game 1 from Toronto as 9.5-point underdogs and paid out their moneyline backers at +375. Despite the win, early books opened Orlando at +8.5 for tonight's Game 2 — a number that immediately drew the attention of bettors.
Those books were quickly hit with Raptors action, and by the end of Saturday night Toronto was up to -9.5 behind roughly 80% of early bets, which is where the line remained for a few days.
Sharps weren't done, though. Per Sports Insights Bet Signals, wiseguys caused two steam moves on the Raptors at -9.5, meaning heavy professional action came down on Toronto over a short period of time, and caused the entire market to react by adjusting the spread.
The Raps are now receiving 63% of bets, but those bets have generated 73% of actual money.
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. ET | NBA TV
Sharp angle: Nuggets (moved from -5.5 to -7)
A similar story is taking place for tonight's Spurs-Nuggets Game 2. Early openers pegged this game at -5.5 on Sunday morning, but that number drew an overload of Nuggets action, and caused an immediate move to -6.
From there, pros hit Denver four more times at lines of -6 and -6.5 per SI's Bet Signals, resulting in the current line. The Nuggets also generated a promising bets vs. dollars discrepancy, as their 55% backing has accounted for 85% of actual money.
That means bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps, have been laying the points.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers
10:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 218 to 223)
Barring any injuries or other major factor changes, a five-point line move should serve as a sign of sharp action in pretty much any scenario. Books simply don't weigh the public's opinion highly enough to adjust a line so significantly based on that alone.
But with four Sports Insights Bet Signals to go along with a 64% backing of the over, oddsmakers have been forced to keep raising this total from 218 up to 223. That's not to mention the fact that the 64% of bettors on the over have generated 88% of actual dollars being wagered on the total.
And for those curious, sharps are also shaping the point spread in this matchup, they just haven't been completely one-sided in their plays. While early professional action favored the Thunder, wiseguys were happy to take the Blazers when the line reached a single point, and that's left oddsmakers to settle in the middle (for now) at Portland -1.5.
