Are you just tuning in to the NBA now that the NFL is done a la our guy, Brandon Anderson? Or are you someone that just wants to place a futures bet then set it and forget it for the rest of the season?
I have the bet for you.
The two best teams in the NBA right now are the Boston Celtics and the reigning champs, the Denver Nuggets. While the Eastern Conference is an easier road for Boston than the gauntlet that is the Western Conference the widespread belief is that they seem to be on a collision course to be the NBA Finals matchup.
If you wanted to bet on both of them to win the NBA Finals you could get approximately (-102) or 50.8% implied for either team to win the NBA Finals.
My proposition to you is to pay an additional ~24 cents for four more teams and create a bet the books are not directly offering.
Bet 1: Atlantic Division to win the NBA Championship (+225 Bet365)
The first step is easy, Boston’s best price in the market to win the title is +230 at DraftKings, but you can bet on the Atlantic Division to win the NBA Title at +225 on Bet365. While it is unlikely that the Knicks or the 76ers can make a true title run, much of that comes down to their health and whether Joel Embiid, Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Mitchell Robinson can all return.
In the event that they do, either team can be disruptive in the Eastern Conference. Regardless, I’m sacrificing 5 cents or 0.4% implied probability for two more outs. It’s a no brainer to tack those on when Boston’s price alone at most books is shorter than this bet on the Atlantic Division. You are basically getting the Knicks and the 76ers for free.
Looking at the NBA playoff picture, it is unlikely that the Celtics, the Knicks, and the 76ers play each other in the first round. However, if all are healthy, they could all either be favored or at least a short dog in their first round matchup.
I now have three teams: Celtics, Knicks, and 76ers.
Bet 2: The Northwest Division to win the NBA Championship (+300 Bet365/ +300 ESPN BET)
This bet includes current top three seeds in the Western Conference: the Oklahoma City Thunder (+2200 DraftKings), the MinnesotaTimberwolves (+3500 DraftKings), and the Denver Nuggets (+420 FanDuel). While you could bet on each of these teams individually and space out your units, the best you could do for an equal payout would be 26.36% implied odds, or (~+280). Here, I can bet all three of these teams for (+300) on Bet365.
Again, the value here lies in not only the number, but the likely path. All three teams should secure the top three seeds and they are projected as such in Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probability Report. All three teams should be favored in a first round series.
The Nuggets' credentials speak for themselves, and whether you believe in the Thunder or the Wolves or not, given the seeding, they will be favored in a first round matchup. The most likely scenario is that they are all playing in the second round of the Western Conference playoffs, with two of them facing off head-to-head. That would guarantee at least one team in the Western Conference finals.
I now have six teams: Celtics, Nuggets, Knicks, Thunder, 76ers, and Timberwolves.
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I’ve created a market for those six teams vs the field. And which teams are we genuinely concerned about? The Clippers, the Bucks, the Cavaliers?
If I bet 1 unit on Atlantic (+225 – 30.77% Implied – to win 2.25 Units – Payout 3.25 Units) and 1 unit on Northwest (+300 – 25% Implied – to win 3 Units – Payout 4 Units), I lock in a profit as long as one of those six teams wins the NBA Title.
If you want to make one NBA Bet for the rest of the season, this is the one (well, really two).
I posit that a combination of those six teams should be significantly shorter odds than the combined odds of roughly ~(-126 – or 55.77% implied).
