Week 13 saw a split in the middle as totals went 25-25 (50%). We are seeing an efficient totals market after starting off the season strong to the unders and the more recent trend to the overs.
I explain below why I think there will be a short window for more unders to prevail in the upcoming week. I've also made an interesting observation on what day of the week is the best day to bet overs.
Here is the weekly market update through Week 13 (week ending Sunday Jan. 16):
Key Totals Trends to Watch
- Over/unders went 25-25 (50%) in Week 13. This brings the season-to-date over/under record to 313-328-4 (48.8%).
- Average points scored has now trended downwards for three consecutive weeks. The average points scored per game was 218.7 in Week 13. The season-to-date average points scored per game is 216.9, so actual results in Week 13 were closer to season averages.
- The lower scoring is because Offensive Efficiency has now decreased for three consecutive weeks. There were a lot of tired teams this past week due to some of the prior postponed games being rescheduled to Week 13.
- The average closing total was 220.5 in Week 13. The market adjusted the closing totals higher as we higher-scoring games and improved offense in recent weeks. However, that looked to peak in Week 11 and if market totals continue to stay steady, there could be a short window for some unders in the upcoming week.
- Interesting observation: Saturdays are for overs. Totals have gone 51-44 to the over (53.7%) this season. This seems to be a common theme for the past several seasons. Overs on Saturday have gone 234-199-3 (54.0%) since the 2019-20 season, per the Sports Data Query Language at Gimme the Dog. On the other hand, totals have gone 73-60 (54.9%) to the under on Wednesdays this season.
Teams with highest scoring games (223 and above)
- Hornets: Avg: 114.9 | Opp Avg: 115.5 | Total: 230.4
- Lakers: Avg: 111.7 | Opp Avg: 113.3 | Total: 225.0
- Rockets: Avg: 108.3 | Opp Avg: 116.7 | Total: 225.0
- Kings: Avg: 110.3 | Opp Avg: 113.2 | Total: 223.5
Teams with lowest scoring games (209 and below)
- Mavericks: Avg: 105.5 | Opp Avg: 102.7 | Total: 208.2
- Thunder: Avg: 100.8 | Opp Avg: 107.7 | Total: 208.5
- Knicks: Avg: 104.6 | Opp Avg: 104.6 | Total: 209.2
- Clippers: Avg: 104.1 | Opp Avg: 105.4 | Total: 209.5
- Cavaliers: Avg: 107.4 | Opp Avg: 102.4 | Total: 209.8
Best Over Teams
- Heat: 26-16-1 (61.9%)
- Rockets: 27-18 (60%)
- Spurs: 25-17-1 (59.5%)
- Raptors: 23-17 (57.5%)
- Jazz: 24-18-1 (57.1%)
- Hornets: 24-18-1 (57.1%)
Best Under Teams
- Mavericks: 13-30 (30.2%)
- Warriors: 16-26-1 (38.1%)
- Cavaliers: 17-27 (38.6%)
- 76ers: 16-25-1 (39.0%)
- Bucks: 18-26-1 (40.9%)
- Clippers: 18-26 (40.9%)
Recent Under Trends
- Mavericks: 9-1 to the under in last 10 games (11-1 to the under in last 12 home games)
- Knicks: 8-3 to the under in past 11 games
- Bucks: 6-1 to the under in last seven games
- Clippers: 5-1 to the under in last six games
- Raptors: 4-0 to the under in last four games
Recent Over Trends
- Rockets: 14-3 to the over in last 17 games (7-1 to the over in last eight home games)
- Lakers: 9-2 to the over in last 11 games
- The Lakers' recent small-ball lineup with LeBron James at the five have given their offense and pace a boost.
- Timberwolves: 9-2 to the over in last 11 games on the road
- This team is finally healthy and are No. 1 in Offensive Rating (120.8) and No. 2 in Pace (104.1) in their previous five games.
- Wizards: 9-3 to the over in last 12 games
- Heat: 7-2 to the over in last nine games
