As predicted in last week's column, we saw an opportunity for unders to prevail in Week 14. Totals went 32-21-2 (60.4%) to the under in Week 14, the highest rate since the third week of the season.
I will detail below that the overall offense and pace has taken a huge dip over the last several weeks. Fatigue could be setting in as many of these teams are playing thin rotations due to players being out with health and safety protocols. There has also been some rescheduling of postponed games that could be contributing to these tired legs.
The Dallas Mavericks (unders) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (overs) were both teams that we mentioned to target last week for totals. Dallas went 4-0 to the under and Minnesota went 3-0 to the over last week.
Here is the weekly market update through Week 14 (week ending Sunday Jan. 24):
Key Totals Trends to Watch
- Over/unders went 21-32-2 (39.6%) in Week 14. This takes the season-to-date over/under record down to 334-360-6 (48.1%).
- Average points scored has now trended lower for four consecutive weeks. The average points scored per game was 217.5 in Week 14, which is aligned with the season-to-date average of 216.9.
- The lower scoring is can be attributed to a dip Offensive Efficiency league wide, which has now decreased for four consecutive weeks. In addition, the Pace has decreased for three consecutive weeks. There were a lot of tired teams these past weeks due to some of the prior postponed games being rescheduled and the effects of thin rotations due to health and safety protocols.
- The average closing total was 219.9 in Week 13. A few weeks ago, the market adjusted the closing totals higher due to the improved offense and scoring. However, that looked to peak in Week 11 and has sharply dipped since. Expect the closing totals to be lower this week as the market catches up with the declining offensive metrics.
- Mavericks’ totals have gone 34-13 (72.3%) to the under this season, per our Bet Labs tool. Their totals have gone under in eight games in a row and they've gone under by an average of 11.4 points. How long can this streak continue? They've got a four-game slate this week, so it will be interesting to see how bookmakers adjust for their totals.
Teams with highest scoring games (224 and above)
- Hornets: Avg: 114.1 | Opp Avg: 114.2 | Total: 228.2
- Kings: Avg: 111.0 | Opp Avg: 114.0 | Total: 225.0
- Rockets: Avg: 108.3 | Opp Avg: 116.3 | Total: 224.6
- Lakers: Avg: 111.3 | Opp Avg: 112.7 | Total: 224.0
Teams with lowest scoring games (209 and below)
- Mavericks: Avg: 105.3 | Opp Avg: 102.5 | Total: 207.8
- Thunder: Avg: 100.3 | Opp Avg: 107.8 | Total: 208.2
- Knicks: Avg: 104.1 | Opp Avg: 104.5 | Total: 208.7
- Cavaliers: Avg: 107.2 | Opp Avg: 102.5 | Total: 209.7
Best Over Teams
- Heat: 28-18-1 (60.9%)
- Nuggets: 27-20 (57.8%)
- Rockets: 26-19 (57.5%)
- Timberwolves: 26-20 (56.5%)
Best Under Teams
- Mavericks: 13-34 (27.7%)
- Warriors: 17-29-1 (37.0%)
- Cavaliers: 18-29 (38.3%)
- Thunder: 18-28 (39.1%)
- 76ers: 18-27-1 (40.0%)
Recent Under Trends
- Mavericks: 13-1 to the under in last 14 games, eight unders in a row. The under has gone 14-1 in the Mavs' last 15 home games and is 20-4 on the season, easily the best mark of any team in the NBA.
- Hornets: 7-1 to the under in last eight games
- Rank second in Defensive Rating (103.3) during this eight-game stretch. Their overall Defensive Rating is 26th (112.0) for the entire season, so you can visibly see their improved commitment to defense.
- Raptors: 7-1 to the under in last eight games
- 27th in Offensive Rating (107.1) and 30th in Pace (93.1) during this eight-game stretch. Fatigue has hit them particularly hard as they have been playing a short rotation due to injuries and players in health and safety protocols. The recent return of Gary Trent Jr. should help with depth.
- Pelicans: 6-1 to the under in last seven games
- Jazz: 5-1 to the under in last six games
- 19th in Offensive Rating (110.4) during this six-game stretch. Their overall Offensive Rating ranks first (116.0) as you can compare the large drop-off due to recent injury to Donovan Mitchell and players missing games due to health and safety protocol.
- Suns: 5-1 to the under in last six games
- Thunder: 4-0 to the under in last four games
Recent Over Trends
- Timberwolves: 7-1 to the over in last eight games (11-2 to the over in last 13 games on the road)
- First in Offensive Rating (121.3) and second in Pace (102.9) during this eight-game stretch. Recent injuries to Patrick Beverley and Anthony Edwards could impact scoring, so keep your eye out for their statuses.
- Nuggets: 6-1 to the over in last seven games
- Third in Offensive Rating (119.2) during this seven-game stretch. They've increased their Pace and their Assist-to-Turnover Ratio has been excellent. The market continues to price them as a low-scoring team.
- Hawks: 5-1 to the over in last six games.
