Week 20 has passed and overs slightly edged unders 26-25 (51%) this past week. The average points scored and closing totals continue to rise. The market has been quick to adjust, so even though we are seeing an increase in scoring, it has not necessarily resulted in a huge influx of overs.
Some teams are trending the different direction. In the case of the Chicago Bulls, Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets, the market may have over-adjusted for their totals and their games have been falling short recently.
On the other hand, teams like the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, who have been notorious for low-scoring games, have seen a recent surge to the over.
Here is the weekly market update through Week 20 (ending March 6):
Key NBA Over/Under Trends to Watch
- Totals went 26-25 (51.0%) to the over in Week 20. This takes the season-to-date over/under record up to 481-474-10 (50.4%). We are seeing a recent surge to overs in the last few weeks.
- Average scoring was at 228.7 points per game in Week 20. The average closing total last week was at 226.5. This brings up the season-to-date scoring averages and closing total to 219.3 each. The market has been quick to adjust to this recent uptick in scoring.
- We have seen an increase in Pace post All-Star Break. These teams have been revitalized and we are seeing its effect on the scoring and faster tempo of the games.
- We have seen six games reach a closing total of 240 or greater. There were three games this week and all three games went under.
- The Minnesota Timberwolves have overtaken the Miami Heat as the best team to the over this season. They are 41-24 (63.1%) to the over and an incredible 26-7 (78.8%) on the road.
Teams with highest scoring games(224 and above)
- Hornets: Avg: 114.3 | Opp Avg: 114.6 | Total: 228.9
- Timberwolves: Avg: 114.3 | Opp Avg: 112.2 | Total: 226.5
- Rockets: Avg: 108.6 | Opp Avg: 117.9 | Total: 226.5
- Spurs: Spurs: Avg: 112.8 | Opp Avg: 113.0 | Total: 225.7
- Kings: Avg: 110.5 | Opp Avg: 114.7 | Total: 225.2
- Bucks: Avg: 114.0 | Opp Avg: 110.3 | Total: 224.4
- Hawks: Avg: 112.5 | Opp Avg: 111.7 | Total: 224.3
Teams with lowest scoring games(213 and below)
- Cavaliers: Avg: 106.6 | Opp Avg: 103.2 | Total: 209.8
- Mavericks: Avg: 107.1 | Opp Avg: 103.7 | Total: 210.8
- Thunder: Avg: 102.1 | Opp Avg: 109.3 | Total: 211.4
- Knicks: Avg: 105.4 | Opp Avg: 107.2 | Total: 212.5
- Celtics: Avg: 109.6 | Opp Avg: 104.1 | Total: 213.7
Best Over Teams
- Timberwolves: 41-24 (63.1%)
- Heat: 38-26-1 (59.4%)
- Rockets: 36-28 (56.2%)
- Pacers: 37-29 (56.1%)
- Spurs: 35-28-1 (55.6%)
- Hawks: 35-28 (55.6%)
Best Under Teams
- Mavericks: 23-41 (35.9%)
- Cavaliers: 24-39-1 (38.1%)
- Pelicans: 25-39 (39.1%)
- Celtics: 28-36-2 (43.8%)
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Recent Under Trends
- Pelicans: 13-4 to the under in last 17 games
- Their recent acquisition of CJ McCollum has helped kickstart an offense that has been one of the worst in the league: The Pelicans are 21st in Offensive Rating (109.7) for the season, but second (118.9) over their previous 10 games when McCollum joined the team. With games against the Grizzlies, Magic, Hornets and Rockets, there could be some high-scoring games for the Pelicans this week.
- Raptors: 8-2 to the under in last 10 games
- No Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby really hurts their offense, depth and overall rating. They've had to rely more on their defense without their highest scorer and best player, VanVleet.
- Grizzlies: 5-1 to the under in last six games
- You've had to pay a premium for Grizzlies' totals as of late – four of these six games had a closing total of 237.5, 238, 240 and 240.5, all of which have gone under. Their offense has not been able to keep up with the market's lofty expectations.
- Bulls: 7-3 to the under in last 10 games
- Similar to the Grizzlies, you are paying a hefty price tag to bet Bulls' overs. The average closing total for this 10-game timeframe was 233.9. DeMar DeRozan's shooting as cooled off a bit – he is shooting 38-for-95 (40%) from the field in their previous four games as opposed to his season average of 51.2%.
- Rockets: 5-1 to the under in last six games
- With totals consistently in the 230s, it could prove difficult for a young team like the Rockets to hold their end of the deal to get that total over. Also, they've shown some life on defense since coming back from the All-Star Break, ranking 10th in Defensive Rating (112.5).
Recent Over Trends
- Timberwolves: 22-5 to the over in last 27 games (26-7 to the over on the road this season)
- The Wolves went 4-0 to the over and overtook the Heat as the best team to the over in the league. Their fast-paced, high-powered offense continues to be an automatic over play.
- Knicks: 10-3 to the over in last 13 games
- The Knicks are 24th in Defensive Rating (115.7) and 13th in Pace (99.6) in their previous 13 games, which is uncharacteristic for a Tom Thibodeau-led team.
- Suns: 9-3 to the over in last 12 games
- Their offense doesn’t appear to be missing a beat after Chris Paul’s injury, but their defense has clearly suffered. They've given up 114.2 points per game in their previous five games.
- Celtics: 6-1-1 to the over in last eight games
- The surging Celtics offense has looked a lot better in recent games. They are fourth in Offensive Rating (120.2) in the five games since returning from All-Star Break. Derrick White has been a great addition and they are a strong two-way team looking ready to make some noise in the playoffs.
- Thunder: 7-1 to the over in last eight games
- The Thunder had another strong week of overs. Derrick Favors has been out, forcing them to play smaller lineups. Their Defensive Rating is 29th (117.8) and Pace is 2nd (103.37) since the All Star Break. This week, they face the Bucks, Timberwolves and Grizzlies – three high-scoring teams.
- 76ers: 6-1 to the over in last seven games
- The James Harden and Joel Embiid era has gotten off to a hot start. In games that both have been active, they are 4-0 SU, ATS and to the over. It is no surprise, but they’ve averaged 36.3 free throws in those four games, which could be a good indicator of more overs in the short-term.
- Warriors: 7-1-1 to the over in last nine games
- Their defense has slipped big time without Draymond Green. Their Defensive Rating is 26th (116.5) during this nine-game timeframe, a far cry from their number one ranked Defensive Rating for the entire season. Green is due back soon, so expect the defense to get back into form once he returns. Note: they are resting all of their stars for tonight's matchup against the Nuggets, so I would be wary of betting that total.
- Wizards: 8-3 to the over in last 11 games
- Their offense has looked a lot better in the last two weeks, but it could be product of playing some horrendous defensive teams in the Lakers, Pacers, Hawks, Pistons and Nets in this timeframe. Kristaps Porzingis made his debut for the Wizards on Sunday scoring 25 points in a win over the Pacers.
