The Raptors finally pulled the trigger. Toronto ushered in the New Year with a trade of OG Anunoby to the Knicks for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a pick as they moved off their long stubbornness in demanding an unreasonable return for the swingman. But in the wake of that deal, naturally, all eyes turned to the other remnant of Toronto's 2019 title, Pascal Siakam, and his availability on the trade market.
Siakam's situation is fascinating. A 29-year-old two-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA selection with a championship ring, Siakam presents one of the true impact players known at this point to be on the trade market. But like Anunoby, he has been talked about so much in trade discussions that there are questions as to whether the Raptor's front office will ever really commit to moving him.
His free agency also complicates trading him. Siakam makes $37 million this season and is set to be an unrestricted free agent this summer. So any team looking to move for him needs two things: a willingness to pay top dollar, a near-max-if-not-absolute max for him, and Siakam's willingness to re-sign with that team.
That's what makes the trade board so fascinating for Siakam if the Raptors elect to trade him.
Notably, the Raptors seem rejuvenated after their trade for Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, both of whom are making leaps this season. So, the decision might be solved if the Raptors rise toward a playoff trajectory.
League sources have told Action Network over the past two seasons that the consensus belief is that Siakam would prefer to remain with Toronto. It's not known if that's because of his comfort with the city and franchise or the hopes of a max payday, as the Raptors can offer him a contract that is $60 million more guaranteed than any other team at $248 million.
There’s growing sentiment Toronto star Pascal Siakam — who’s on an expiring deal — would not re-sign with a team who attempts to trade for him as his preference is to remain with the Raptors, sources tell @NBAonTNT, @BleacherReport.
— Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes) June 22, 2023
So then, not only are trade partners faced with how much they want to pay Siakam, but Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster have to decide whether to commit to a five-year deal for a 29-year-old. Siakam has had stretches of low production timed with curious body language and seemed to clash with Nick Nurse at times.
However, none of this changes his two-way impact; Siakam is honestly underrated in terms of what he brings to the table on both ends of the floor and has the best On/Off Net Rating split of any Raptor rotation player.
This is a consistent trend in the NBA. Teams explore trades for players leading up to extensions or max re-signings, and then when the market does not return what they believe is investor value for what they've already committed to the player in terms of money and development resources, they re-sign the player anyway. The most likely scenario might just mean the Raptors keep Siakam because keeping him is better than losing him.
But there's a reason he was heavily discussed in offseason and preseason trade talks with multiple teams as we outlined at Action Network, so here's a look at the teams in pursuit, what we know, what we think, and what we can't determine.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have been linked to Siakam as he fits perfectly with their team. He instantly upgrades their frontcourt defense next to Myles Turner. He provides Tyrese Haliburton with a physical finisher who can spread the floor, score at the rim, and most importantly, play make.
The Lakers threw waves of defenders at Haliburton in the In-Season Tournament final, and that's a preview of what he'll see in a potential playoff matchup. Siakam would alleviate that while upgrading their defense significantly…while not being a downgrade in scoring efficiency. It's a perfect fit.
The problem? League sources believe Siakam may be reticent to give the Pacers assurances he'll re-sign there. That doesn't mean Siakam wouldn't, but it's enough to give the Pacers a lot to consider in a trade. The Pacers are not going for a one-year shoot-the-moon title shot. They need sustainability. Siakam departing in free agency would be catastrophic if the Pacers send picks and players, which they would have to in a deal.
Of note, Hall of Famer Marc Stein reported this week that Siakam will be reticent to commit to any team in free agency and wants to explore free agency.
What if Siakam changes his mind, or if the Pacers believe they can convince him? This deal makes the most sense. The Pacers have good players and picks to send, but that's an obstacle to consider.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks were described as "sellers" by Jake Fischer at Yahoo Sports and so considered to be out of the Siakam sweepstakes as a result. There's substantial chatter that Dejounte Murray will be somewhere else by the deadline. League sources have indicated trade calls are being taken for AJ Griffin, De'Andre Hunter and Clint Capela, along with Murray.
The only reason I don't think you can take the Hawks off the table completely is because of their inherent instability. There are big questions across the league about how many cooks are in the Hawks' front office kitchen. That's before considering the impact of ownership and how they may interfere with decisions and the perceived influence of Klutch Sports (which represents both Trae Young and Murray).
My point here: the Hawks may not be a consistent actor, and so what is true today ("The Hawks are sellers and are not looking to deal for Siakam") may not be true tomorrow ("The Hawks are back in on Siakam!").
There were three-way discussions over the summer with the Mavericks that would have sent Capela to Dallas. However, Dereck Lively's emergence may have put an end to those ideas, even with Lively's myriad injury issues.
Siakam could dramatically alter things for the Hawks. He's a two-way player who, again, fits well next to a primary initiator in Young. He can help boost a terrible defense and provide another veteran for the team, but the direction of the Hawks will determine if they re-enter discussions.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings have widely been reported to be in pursuit of Siakam for months, just as they pursued Anunoby. The Athletic reported a week ago that things were progressing toward a deal, only for talks to sputter to a halt less than an hour later. That offer is believed to have included Davion Mitchell, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter and draft compensation, according to multiple league sources.
The Kings are the latest team to get involved in advanced talks with Toronto, only to be frustrated as they continue to ask for more and more. Ask the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans, who both got caught in this finger trap last trade deadline over OG Anunoby, how it goes.
Still, the Kings may have the most to gain among the potential trade partners. They project as a playoff team, but one in need of defensive frontcourt help. Siakam would give them essentially an off-brand Big Three, three stars underrated by casual analysis who also aren't marquee names with Siakam, Domantas Sabonis, and De'Aaron Fox.
The Kings have to be considered the favorite for Siakam, if he is moved, just based on the combination of both interest, intent and available assets.
Detroit Pistons
Well, I guess if you've hit rock bottom, you've got nothing left to lose. A move for Siakam is essentially a desperate move to get the team on pace for roughly 10 wins to a place of respectability. It gets Cade Cunningham a viable second option. The Pistons have a number of big men to offer the Raptors, which would interest them, and Jaden Ivey might be the prize the Raptors demand the most.
There's effectively zero reason for the Pistons to do this. Why would Siakam commit to re-signing? Why would he elect to re-sign beyond the money? What's the real value in trying to get better right now, considering the desperate need of the franchise for long-term talent and a patient approach?
But this is what happens when things are this bad. The Pistons are the team the Raptors probably want to trade with the most, but it would take a level of desperation rarely seen by ownership and management (in pursuit of employment retainment) to make this deal. Nonetheless, the Pistons are a legit potential destination.
Golden State Warriors
Two league sources this week said that the Raptors would have an interest in Jonathan Kuminga or Moses Moody as the centerpiece of a deal. A deal would bring back Andrew Wiggins, who would instantly become hugely popular alongside RJ Barrett as a native Canadian.
Golden State's anchors have come unmoored this season. Kevon Looney has almost been unplayable. The Warriors are losing not only the Steph Curry minutes, but the Steph Curry-Draymond Green minutes and the Steph-Draymond-Without-Wiggins minutes. They are in huge danger of not only depriving Steph Curry of another playoff run for a title but a playoff spot at all.
Siakam would work well in Steve Kerr's system and would not face the same kind of harsh eye Kuminga has, which has sparked drama this season.
It's assumed that Kuminga-Wiggins would be the centerpiece of a potential deal, but I will speculate on the following: are we absolutely sure the Warriors do not attempt to move off one of the Big 3 in this deal? Would they attempt to clear Green or Klay Thompson on big contracts at an advanced age for a 29-year-old whom they will pay a ton of money?
There's no way to know what the Raptors would demand for taking on those contracts. However, I do not think moving the Big 3 is absolutely, 100% off the table given how badly this season has gone as a continuation of last year's disappointment.
Memphis Grizzlies
One final note, Marc Stein mentioned the Grizzlies as a potential suitor. There is a financially viable deal involving Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard, but it would require emptying every barrel of draft equity until the heat death of the universe unless they include one of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane or Jaren Jackson Jr.
But notably, there might be a three-way trade viable with the Warriors or Kings. The Grizzlies need more veteran components, especially at small forward. They can get that from either the Warriors or Kings, and the Warriors have had an interest in Marcus Smart since a few years ago. This is speculative and just something to consider as the playoff pieces fall into place.
So, Where's He Going?
I would rank the outcomes from most likely to least likely:
- Stays with Raptors, re-signs this summer
- Traded to Kings
- Stays with Raptors and leaves this summer
- Traded to Hawks or Pacers
- Traded to another team
Much will depend on how the next four weeks of basketball go. If the Raptors surge and suddenly things are looking up, you can bet Toronto will talk themselves into this squad. But if the Raptors fall back to the sub-.500 team they've been, we'll see a flurry of talks that last week of the deadline. As often as the Raptors have teased teams and driven executives crazy with their asking prices, they just dealt OG Anunoby for a reasonable return.
Until the deadline, all eyes will continue to be on Siakam and if he'll be the piece that moves the playoff or title picture this season.
