NBA Updated Win Totals: Odds, Picks for Eastern Conference Contenders
Now that the trade deadline has passed and we have hit the All-Star Break, it is an ideal time to check back in on the NBA futures market. I am diving back into regular-season win total numbers. I will be going through every single team over the next few days to determine the best plays on NBA win totals for the rest of the season.
This is also very important analysis for anyone with a pending win totals ticket. I highly encourage you to check with the team you already bet and look for the possibility to open a middle or double down. In some cases, these are great options to either reduce risk floor or increase payout ceiling.
The first batch of teams will be the top six teams from the Eastern Conference, including the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers. Let's dive in.
Boston Celtics
Preseason Win Total: 55.5 (-110o / -110u)
Current Record: 43-12 (.782)
Win Total Pace: 64-18
Current Odds: 63.5 (-110o / -110u)
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 28th
The Boston Celtics are the clear team to beat in the Eastern Conference. They are six games up on the second-place Cavaliers and have one of the easiest remaining schedules. The options to continue to bet regular-season Celtics futures are very limited because of their dominant lead. DraftKings has gone so far as to not even price odds on the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
The win total is priced at 63.5, which is slightly below pace — and with an easy schedule, one would naturally think to go over. However, considering they will have the No. 1 seed locked up, and likely the best league record too (securing home court in the NBA Finals), I expect the Celtics to prioritize health and load management down the stretch of the season, adding a layer of unpredictability to their futures that provides enough reason not to double down.
If I held a Celtics Over win total future from preseason, I would probably just let it ride and not alter my position. While playing an Under 63.5 inherently reduces risk and opens a nice positive middle, I’m not sure a win total with a +8 projection right now needs much protection. No need for risk insurance, just wait for the ticket to cash in April.
Plan of Action: Hold the Fort
Cleveland Cavaliers
Preseason Win Total: 51.5 (+100o / -120u)
Current Record: 36-17 (.679)
Win Total Pace: 56-26
Current Odds: 54.5 (+105o / -125u)
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 15th
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the hottest team in the league in 2024. The turnaround has been so drastic that Brian Windhorst reported that head coach J.B. Bickerstaff was on the hot seat and likely gone with one more bad weekend, and now he ranks third in coach of the year odds.
A lot of this run happened under two conditions. First, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland were hurt, so Cleveland had to simplify its offense with Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen pick-and-rolls. With Garland and Mobley, we have a clear talent upgrade, but fit isn’t as clean. But I do not expect the Cavaliers to regress while adding talent, since I believe the fit will sort itself out.
The second thing to point out was the easiest strength of schedule during the span when the Cavaliers caught fire. They will proceed through the back end of the season with the 15th-ranked strength of schedule.
With a current pace of 56 wins and plus odds at 54.5 wins, there is one way I would approach this. If, and only if, I already had a Cavaliers win total Over at the 51.5 preseason number, I would further increase my Over position. In this case, I would use 25-50% of the expected winnings from that ticket and roll it over to Over 54.5 at +105 at BetMGM to increase the ceiling of my winnings.
The Cavaliers should continue to roll and should be in a tight race for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. The race for the No. 2 seed is going to be critical when mapping out playoff brackets and matchups. Facing a play-in team instead of the No. 6 seed, avoiding Boston for one more round and maintaining home-court advantage versus the No. 3 seed in the second round are all huge. I expect the Cavaliers to push for it and thus eclipse the 54.5 wins mark.
*Note: all of this can also be done with 53.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
Plan of Action: Double Down Over Backers
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Milwaukee Bucks
Preseason Win Total: 53.5 (-120o / +100u)
Current Record: 35-21 (.625)
Win Total Pace: 51-31
Current Odds: 50.5 (-115o / -105u)
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 3rd
One of the hardest teams to predict down the back end of the season will be the Milwaukee Bucks. The talent is loud and clearly evident; they have a unanimous top-four MVP candidate, two All-Star starters, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and other role players who have played on Team USA. I am also a Doc Rivers supporter and believe he is historically a great coach who can churn out regular-season wins. I also expect the Bucks to add a piece in the buyout market.
I would not be surprised at any outcome for the Bucks the rest of season, and thus I have no plans to bet it or recommend a bet. They could turn on the jets, cruise to 10 straight wins and look to lock up the No. 2 seed. They also could continue to struggle with a difficult remaining schedule and drop down a seed or two. This team is hard to predict and simply impossible to put our money into a position on.
Plan of Action: Steer Clear
New York Knicks
Preseason Win Total: 44.5 (-120o / +100u)
Current Record: 33-22
Win Total Pace: 49-33
Current Odds: 49.5 (-105o / -115u)
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 14th
The New York Knicks were perhaps the biggest winner of the trade season, acquiring multiple key rotation players and giving up zero first round picks in the process. They were absolutely rolling in late January and early February until the injury bug snuck into their locker room. New York is currently without All-Star Julius Randle, top trade acquisition OG Anunoby and one of the best rebounders in the league in Mitchell Robinson.
Due to the rash of injuries — and some uncertainty as to when the players will be back — I like the idea for any Knicks Over bettors to now play the Under. This opens a five-win middle, which is incredibly valuable. Bettors can simultaneous reduce risk and increase ceiling by playing 50% of the original Over bet now on the current Under 49.5. The Knicks will be entrenched in a playoff seeding race and get their opponents' best efforts nightly, so now is the time to make an Under move.
Plan of Action: Open the Middle
Philadelphia 76ers
Preseason Win Total: 48.5 (+100o / -120u)
Current Record: 32-22 (0.593)
Win Total Pace: 49-33
Current Odds: None Currently Listed
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 9th
It's pretty hard to have an actionable plan with no odds listed. I will come back and update this post if/when books re-list a 76ers win total.
This is clearly sitting in no man's land because of the Joel Embiid injury and uncertainty as to whether or not he will return this season. The 76ers are likely to hang in the top-eight contention and be at least in the play-in tournament. I am hopeful they return a healthy Embiid and we can see what Philadelphia can do when it really counts.
Plan Of Action: Re-evaluate Market with More Info
Indiana Pacers
Preseason Win Total: 38.5 (-120o / +100u)
Current Record: 31-25
Win Total Pace: 45-37
Current Odds: 45.5 (+112o / -120u)
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 19th
The Indiana Pacers took the most preseason steam in the futures and win totals market, going from 35 wins to 38.5 wins and juiced to the over. Their early-season results proved the market did not catch up enough, and this is proving to be the growth year for Indiana.
The Pacers are currently on a 45-win pace, they just acquired Pascal Siakam and they have dealt with Tyrese Haliburton’s hamstring injury for a bunch of games already. If Indiana stays healthy, combined with the 12th-easiest remaining schedule and wanting to push to secure a top-six seed and avoid the play-in tournament, it should pace toward the over. Now at +112 on FanDuel, I would be looking to play a small Pacers Over.
You can take 25-50% of the Over 38.5 earnings and dump it into plus money on Over 45.5 — ladder your payout. Offense travels in this league and we should have no concern about the Pacers' ability to put up points on any given night.
Plan of Action: Double Down on Overs
