NBA Win Totals, Picks: Updated Bets for Western Conference Play-In Teams
Now that the trade deadline has passed and we have hit the All-Star Break, it is an ideal time to check back in on the NBA futures market. I am diving back into regular-season win total numbers as I will be going through every single team over the next few days to determine the best plays on NBA win totals for the rest of the season.
This is also very important analysis for anyone with pending win-total tickets. I highly encourage you to check with the team you already bet and look for the possibility to open a middle or double down. In some cases, these are great options to either reduce risk floor or increase payout ceiling.
The fourth batch of teams in this series will be the 7-10 seeds in the Western Conference. These include the Dallas Mavericks, Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors. Let’s dive in.
Dallas Mavericks
- Preseason Win Total: 43.5 (O -110/U -110)
- Current Record: 32-23
- Win Total Pace: 47-35
- Current Odds: 47.5 (-110)
- Strength of Schedule: 10th Easiest
Plan of Action: Game Market Approach
The odds for the Mavericks' season win total exactly aligns with their pace, and their strength of schedule is positive but not outstanding. This is a pretty simple read to not invest in a two-month wait for an NBA futures bet when there are ways to attack this in game markets.
Mavericks -2.5 against the Suns is a best bet for me today, and it is identically priced at -110 and will be graded before the end of Thursday. No matter how you feel about this team, there are better ways to bet into your opinion.
Sacramento Kings
- Preseason Win Total: 44.5 (O -110/U -110)
- Current Record: 31-23
- Win Total Pace: 47-35
- Current Odds: 47.5 O+115 U-140
- Strength of Schedule: 8th Hardest
Plan of Action: Open a Small Middle
This is going to be a very niche analysis that applies to people with existing over tickets on the Kings' win total. Now is a good time to flip to the other side, open a three-win middle and reduce the risk floor while increasing the payout ceiling. The Kings have some cautionary indicators this season that show they have some lucky wins because their Point Differential resembles a .500 team, even though they are eight wins better than .500.
If we expect some natural regression from a team that made no major moves at the deadline, it is a nice time to open a middle.
Los Angeles Lakers
- Preseason Win Total: 47.5 (O -110/U -110)
- Current Record: 30-26
- Win Total Pace: 44-38
- Current Odds: 44.5 O-125, U+105
- Strength of Schedule: 10th Hardest
Plan of Action: Game Market Approach
The Lakers find themselves with a win total half a game above their pace, with a juiced -125 to the over and a difficult schedule. The Lakers have also largely been very healthy this season. Instead of reaching for an over for a team you think will make a run, pick off the individual games instead.
Tonight the Lakers take on the Warriors in the Bay without LeBron James, so skip playing an over win total now. You could talk me into an under if you are a Lakers fader and think they may not stay healthy down the stretch.
Golden State Warriors
- Preseason Win Total: 47.5 (O -120/U +100)
- Current Record: 27-26
- Win Total Pace: 42-40
- Current Odds: 44.5 (O-105, U-120)
- Strength of Schedule: 6th Easiest
Plan of Action: Wait 24 Hours
Out of all the teams that I have analyzed in these Updated Win Total articles, the Warriors are the lone team that has odds priced a full 2.5 games above their expected pace. Will their pre-All-Star Break run carry over? Will they get Chris Paul back healthy? Does Andrew Wiggins shoot a bit better?
This is another situation where you can definitely talk me into the under. It would be wise to wait 24 hours to pick off an under because they are home favorites against the LeBron-less Lakers tonight and likely secure that win.
