NBA Win Totals, Picks: Updated Bets for West Playoff Teams
Now that we've made it through the NBA All-Star break, we should check back in with the NBA futures market — especially those regular-season win total numbers.
I'll be going through each team over the next few days and reviewing their preseason win total, their current record, their win total pace, the remaining strength of schedule and the bets to make.
This is also a key breakdown for those who already have win total tickets. In some cases, there are great options to either reduce the risk floor or increase the payout ceiling.
The first batch of teams will be the top six seeds in the Western Conference: the Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Preseason Win Total: 44.5
- Current Record: 39-16
- Win Total Pace: 58-24
- Current Odds: 55.5 (-130o / +105u)
- Strength of Schedule: 10th-Easiest
Plan of Action: Best Record After Break (+1500)
I’m kind of obsessed with these long-shot odds at DraftKings. Forget the simple win total — let's play the Wolves to have the best record in the NBA from here on out.
They have the 10th-easiest remaining strength of schedule, per Tankathon, which looks at opponent win/loss record. They also have an overwhelmingly home-heavy schedule, with seven more games in Minneapolis in the last 27 contests.
Minnesota also has a chance to secure the 1-seed in the West with a new-ish coach, GM and ownership group. With two all-stars, a DPOY favorite, vets inking fresh deals and a bunch of savvy role players, I expect this group to go for it.
Getting the Wolves +1500 to finish strong is nuts.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Preseason Win Total: 44.5
- Current Record: 37-17
- Win Total Pace: 56-26
- Current Odds: 54.5 (-145o / +115u)
- Strength of Schedule: Seventh-Easiest
Plan of Action: It's too juiced
The Thunder are one of the darlings of the NBA this year. They have finally come fully onto the scene and look like instant playoff threats, starting by being a top seed in the Western Conference.
Their win total is currently priced 1.5 games lower than the pace, but the odds make you pay for it. The -145 juice is too expensive for my investment in a two-month wait for payout.
I would look to play this hungry Thunder team to beat up on weaker competition and not drop any games down the stretch. They will want to maintain home-court advantage for as long as possible and avoid the 3/4 spots in the West, where they would have to travel to the vet-laden teams in Los Angeles and Denver.
Los Angeles Clippers
- Preseason Win Total: 46.5
- Current Record: 36-17
- Win Total Pace: 56-26
- Current Odds: 55.5 (-120o / +100u)
- Strength of Schedule: Seventh-Hardest
Plan of Action: Calling Both Clips Backers and Faders
This line screams action on a no vig under.
Unlike the lines for the Thunder and Wolves being priced a full 1.5 games lower than pace, this line is priced exactly at pace (my 56 wins are rounded up; it's closer to 55.5). We also see no vig toward the under on a strength of schedule that's one of the top-10 hardest.
The Clippers are also known for being injury-prone and staying away from the injury bug this season. If that little critter finds its way into the L.A. locker room, knock on wood. I hope it doesn't, but if so, I would expect a downturn to come.
If you previously backed the Clippers earlier this season at 46.5 or when they were struggling, now is the time to open a huge middle and play back the under.
If you're a general Clippers fader, feel free to enter this no-vig market on an under 55.5. I'm playing the under for 0.5 units myself.
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Denver Nuggets
- Preseason Win Total: 52.5
- Current Record: 36-19
- Win Total Pace: 54-28
- Current Odds: 54.5 (-130o / +105u)
- Strength of Schedule: Eighth-Easiest
Plan of Action: Consider the Under and Small Middle
Here's our first Western Conference example of a team's expected win total exceeding its current pace. The Nuggets are on pace to win 53.7 games with a win total of 54.5 juiced to the over at -130.
While the difference of one game over 25-plus contests seems negligible, it's a sign that the oddsmakers are trusting the veteran experience of the defending champs down the stretch — and that's no surprise.
The question becomes, how much do the Nuggets go for it? Does Jokic play a bit harder for MVP? He won't say so, but he wants it. Do they try to push for home-court advantage and use the altitude in their favor? I think so.
But there's the looming thought that they may prioritize rest and health for players like Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., who have often been banged up down the stretch.
If you're an early-season Denver backer, now is a good time to reduce exposure and open up a win-total middle. At +105, you're getting return and security in a two-win middle bundle.
Phoenix Suns
- Preseason Win Total: 51.5
- Current Record: 33-22
- Win Total Pace: 49-33
- Current Odds: 48.5 (-120o / -105u)
- Strength of Schedule: Hardest
Plan of Action: Bad Timing on Another Beal Injury
I'm officially two weeks away from drawing conclusions on the Phoenix Suns. This team has been up and down all year, and it's been nearly impossible to judge — or easy to judge simply by looking at the injury report.
Now, Phoenix heads into another stretch without Bradley Beal and facing the toughest schedule in the NBA. There are daunting times ahead for the Suns.
I will never doubt Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, and I think highly of head coach Frank Vogel.
I don’t want to play an under against them, but now is not the time to play an over either. The futures market is a big stay-away, but look to pounce in a week or two once the rain clears, the schedule lightens up and the roster returns to full strength.
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New Orleans Pelicans
- Preseason Win Total: 44.5
- Current Record: 33-22
- Win Total Pace: 49-33
- Current Odds: 48.5 (-120o / -105u)
- Strength of Schedule: 12th-Hardest
Plan of Action: Look at Correlated Bets
The Pelicans are another team that's very hard to figure out.
They have offensive and defensive firepower, but not many players have both. Rotations are constantly in flux. Their play style depends on who's active. Shooting comes and goes depending on when the defense ramps up.
The Pels a very dangerous playoff team, but they could potentially struggle down the stretch. Considering the five dominant teams above them and the strength of the Mavericks, Kings, Lakers and Warriors below them, I think the Pelicans continue to float in the 6/7 range.
The best way to bet this is the Pelicans to Participate in the Play-In Tournament at +140.
If you do like the Pelicans and disagree with my take, then I would consider taking them to make the playoffs at -650. I know the odds are steep, but they automatically secure a spot if they remain in the top six and would get two home playoff/play-in games if they dipped to 7.
Since they're so flexible in matchups and a strong team when playing at home, I like either option. Plus you can simply decrease the payout instead of adding risk.
Regardless of your opinion on the Pelicans, I think value can be found in correlated angles related to the updated win total.
