The New York Knicks (3-2) will take on the Houston Rockets (3-3) tonight in the NBA. Tipoff from the Toyota Center in Houston is set for 8:45 p.m. ET.
The oddsmakers see the Knicks as 3.5-point home favorites over the Rockets (Knicks -3.5), while the total is set at over/under 218.5 points.
Read below for my Knicks vs. Rockets predictions and my NBA picks for Monday, November 4.
Knicks vs. Rockets Odds
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 218.5 -110o / -110u | -166 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 218.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
New York Knicks
The new-look Knicks have gone through a bit of an identity shift since their postseason last May.
Last season, they had the eighth-best offense propelled by the second-best Offensive Rebound Percentage in the league. Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson were the primary reasons for that approach — neither of whom are with the team at the moment.
Since the arrival of Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks have relied more on jump shooting and shot-making and that’s boosted their Offensive Rating to third (121.6) per NBA Advanced Stats.
I like that the Knicks take the second-most midrange shots in the league (36.8 percent) and while they take just 35.7 percent of their shots from deep, they have the best 3-point percentage in the league (42.1 percent), per Cleaning the Glass.
Unfortunately for Houston, it doesn’t have the perimeter defense to match the Knicks prowess from 3. Dillon Brooks and Amen Thompson are formidable, but Brooks’ defense isn’t what it was two years ago and Thompson only plays 23.2 minutes per game.
I think we see some points from the Knicks side, and I think Towns could be in store for the bulk of those.
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Houston Rockets
The Rockets take a bit more offensively balanced approach.
They like to attack the rim with Alperen Sengun and that’s an area of weakness for the Knicks now that they’ve replaced Robinson and Hartenstein with Towns.
New York does a good job of hiding Towns’ rim protection shortcomings, but it comes at the expense of 3-point opportunities. The Knicks give up the most opponent 3s in the league and allow them to score at a 40% clip — the fifth-worst rate in the league and that makes me like points for the Rockets too.
When defenses collapse on drivers, or Sengun draws doubles, Houston is good at kicking out to shooters on the perimeter, shooting non-corner 3s at the 10th-highest rate this season.
When they’re not generating looks for Sengun and distance shooters, the Rockets are forcing turnovers or committing them. Houston ranks fourth in Turnover Percentage (12.0), per NBA Advanced Stats, and third in opponent points off turnovers (13.0).
On the other side of the ball, the Knicks rank seventh (12.8) and are tied for first (12.4) in Turnover Percent and Opponent Points Off Turnovers, respectively.
Knicks vs. Rockets
Betting Pick & Prediction
I like the Rockets in this spot as home underdogs, but I think this is a better spot for an over, given the current total.
Houston's defense (10th) is better than the Knicks (16th), but New York’s high-caliber offense should be able to exploit the Rockets' weaknesses on that end.
Steven Adams missed the last game against the Warriors, but he’s been upgraded to questionable for Monday night’s game. Ultimately, it’ll be better for the over with Adams out, given his defense, but I would like the over up to 223 if he’s in and 223.5 if he’s out.
However, Towns to exceed 21.5 points will be a play dependent on Adams’ status and I’ll stay away if he plays.
