Suns vs. Nuggets Odds
| Suns Odds | +4.5 |
| Nuggets Odds | -4.5 |
| Over/Under | 228.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Date | Monday, May 1 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| How to Watch | TNT |
| Odds via BetMGM as of Monday | |
Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets face the star-studded Phoenix Suns for the right to a Western Conference Finals appearance.
The Suns — on the backs of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Chris Paul — opened as favorites for this series despite a lack of home court advantage.
But in Game 1, Jamal Murray showed why he's a game-changer with a sterling 34 point performance. And the Nuggets' defensive gameplans against Durant and Booker's pick and rolls — and guarding DeAndre Ayton to a tee with undersized players — left the Suns reeling offensively at times.
But Jokic had a bad Game 1, by his standards. While he still put up 24 points and 18 rebounds, he had just five assists and missed several gimmes around the rim.
Will Monday night be a bounce back game for the two-time reigning MVP?
The Action Network has a set of proprietary algorithms that indicates a solid edge on Jokic's player props at BetMGM.
The models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Nikola Jokic Player Prop Projection, Prediction
The models indicate Jokic is in for another tough night in the points department, with Murray set to handle the offensive load for Game 2.
The Suns don't have an answer for Murray on defense. Booker is their best option, but forcing him to focus on defense for 40 minutes would drain him offensively. Josh Okogie and Torrey Craig are okay plug gaps, but they're liabilities on the other side of the ball. And Chris Paul is washed defensively.
Jokic is projected to have just about 24 points on Monday night with Murray at the helm. That's relative to a market-best price of u25.5 (-115) at BetMGM.
This pick has a roughly 8% betting edge. Essentially, you're receiving a 8% discount from the true fair value price of that line. Another way to think about it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 8% in expected value.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.
Nikola Jokic Best Player Prop: Under 25.5 points (via Action Network PRO tools)
