Nuggets vs. Celtics Prediction, Picks Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Nuggets vs. Celtics on Friday, Jan. 19 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Denver Nuggets head to Boston on their East Coast road trip to take on the Celtics in a Friday night prime time showdown. Can Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets take care of business on the road or will Boston defend home court in this potential Finals preview?
Let's get to our Nuggets vs. Celtics prediction and pick.
Nuggets vs. Celtics Prediction
Pick: Celtics -6
Nuggets Betting Outlook
The Nuggets are relatively healthy at this point although they are listing Aaron Gordon (shoulder) as probable for this contest. On the season, Denver is fifth in Adjusted Net Rating (+5.2) and they are buoyed by their elite offense (5th – 119.5).
They have been significantly better at home compared to on the road this season. Denver is 17-4 at home but just 11-10 on the road. They've struggled to find an offensive rhythm and are scoring 8.6 fewer points on the road. Additionally, they are just 7-14 ATS on the road and 1-3 ATS as a road dog. They have struggled in this spot despite having elite talent.
It's unclear whether it is an effort issue or a matchup issue this season, but Denver has struggled (relative to their full season record) against top teams. When playing the top 10 teams in point differential, the team is just 5-7 straight up with a -1.5 Net Rating, per Cleaning the Glass.
Celtics Betting Outlook
The Celtics have been dominant on the season overall. They are 32-9 with a perfect 20-0 record at home. Boston has dominated with a 13-7 ATS record as a home favorite with an average margin of victory of 15.7 points and ATS number of +5.3. They have been incredible at the house. Furthermore, the Celtics have taken care of business against good teams as well. They are 10-4 with a +3.8 Net Rating against other teams in the top 10 in point differential, per Cleaning the Glass.
One of the Celtics' biggest strengths is their 3-point shooting is one of the league's best. They take 3s at the highest frequency in the league and shoot an incredible 39.1% from deep, per Cleaning the Glass. While Denver does a good job of limiting those attempts, they are a tick below league average for their 3-point percentage allowed, per Cleaning the Glass.
One player that I expect to thrive in this matchup is Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis has been excellent vs Jokic even in limited minutes and is averaging 20.5 points against him in 12 career games. His floor has been about 16 points and he has one of the better matchups for Boston. Porzingis is averaging 19.1 points per game and his 16.5 or 17.5 points line is a bit too low. I'll trust him to exceed either of those.
Nuggets vs. Celtics Picks, Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -108 | 233 -105o / -115u | +220 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -112 | 233 -105o / -115u | -270 |
This matchup between two of the NBA's best favors the Boston Celtics. Boston's home-court advantage is significant and while the Nuggets may play at a higher level on the road when we get to the postseason, but they have not played up to par away from Denver this season.
I'll lay the points with Boston in what I think should be a good game, but one Boston can pull away from due to their elite 3-point shooting.
