The Denver Nuggets (7-5) and Memphis Grizzlies (8-6) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from FedExForum in Memphis. The game will be broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Grizzlies are 4.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Nuggets -4.5), with the over/under set at 226.5 total points. Memphis is a -175 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +145 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Grizzlies vs Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, November 19.
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Picks
Spread
With my model projecting the Nuggets closer to 2.5-point underdogs, I recommend a play on the visitors at +4.5 or better, granted Nikola Jokic plays.
Moneyline
Given their value at the current point spread, the Nuggets are especially live to win the game outright as +145 underdogs.
Over/Under
I project a total closer to 226, giving me a slight lean on the under at 226.5
My Pick: Nuggets +4.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 226.5 -115 / -105 | +145 |
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 226.5 -115 / -105 | -175 |
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies spread: Grizzlies -4.5 (-115)
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies over/under: 226.5 points
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies moneyline: Nuggets +145, Grizzlies -175
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Preview
The Nuggets will remain in Memphis to face the Grizzlies for the second time in as many games following Sunday's 105-90 setback.
Denver dropped to 7-5 with the loss that extended its losing streak to two games.
What's important to note is that the Nuggets have been without their best player, Nikola Jokic, for the last two games due to personal reasons. Jokic is currently questionable on the NBA's official injury report, so there's a decent chance the Sertbian could suit up for the game.
Jokic is already a three-time MVP and having his best-ever season, averaging a triple-double with 29.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 11.7 assists. Thus, given how he fills up the stats sheet, there's no question that the Nuggets will suffer in his absence.
While the Nuggets and Grizzlies are two games above .500, the latter has played a softer schedule and ranks 23rd in opponent strength.
As a result, Memphis has had a few blowout victories along the way, which explains why its Pythagorean Expectation of 11-3 looks much better than its 8-6 record.
However, provided that Jokic is on the floor, I don't project a considerable gap between these teams.
The Nuggets' revenge spot is also massive, given that they will face the same opponent in back-to-back games.
Denver failed to match the Grizzlies' physicality from the onset. Nuggets head coach Mike Malone saw his team finally get up to speed as the game wore on, but he wants his players to have that intensity for 48 minutes.
"We were able to cut that 24-point (Memphis) lead to 11 when we became more aggressive and more physical, and that allowed us to kind of get back in the game," Malone said. "We need to not wait until the fourth quarter and a 24-point deficit to do that. That's got to be our M.O. from the beginning of the game."
If Jokic is available, the Nuggets should be able to play at a much higher standard on Tuesday.
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Prediction
This handicap is contingent on Jokic suiting up to play. However, if he's ruled out, I'd quickly pivot to the under because the Nuggets will miss Jokic's offensive qualities if he's not on the floor.
Jokic also warrants consideration for inclusion in a same-game parlay.
A combination of the Nuggets at +4 and Jokic scoring over 49.5 points, rebounds, and assists would boost our odds to +150.
Jokic has exceeded this prop line in five straight games and eight of his past nine games. He's already averaging a career-high in minutes with 38.1 per contest, and after missing Denver's previous two games, Jokic should be relatively fresh to handle a heavy workload.
Best Bet: Nuggets +4.5 (-110, BetMGM) IF Nikola Jokic plays
Same Game Parlay: Nuggets +4 | Nikola Jokic over 49.5 points + rebounds + assists (+150, BetRivers)
