The Denver Nuggets (8-6) and Los Angeles Lakers (10-5) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Lakers are 4.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Lakers -4.5), with the over/under set at 234.5 total points. Los Angeles is a -180 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +150 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lakers vs Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, November 23.
Nuggets vs. Lakers Picks, Prediction
Spread
I have a lean toward the Nuggets as my model projects Denver closer to a 4-point underdog.
Moneyline
Given the slight edge on the current spread of +4.5, the moneyline offers the best value, with the Nuggets available at +145 or higher. The best odds in the market for Denver's moneyline are at DraftKings and bet365, listed at +150.
Over/Under
The total is a complete pass for me after getting steamed from 229.5 up to as high as 233. I project a total of 232.9 points, so there's little value at the current number.
My Pick: Nuggets ML (+150)
Nuggets vs Lakers Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 234.5 -110 / -110 | +150 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 234.5 -110 / -110 | -180 |
- Nuggets vs Lakers spread: Lakers -4.5
- Nuggets vs Lakers over/under: 234.5 points
- Nuggets vs Lakers moneyline: Lakers -180, Nuggets +150
- Nuggets vs Lakers best bet: Nuggets Moneyline
Nuggets vs. Lakers Preview
The Nuggets and Lakers will try to shake off some difficult losses when they meet for the first time since their playoffs matchup a season ago. Denver is coming off a difficult loss at home (123-120) in which they blew a 24-point lead to Dallas while the Lakers lost by one point (119-118) to a Magic team that was without three of its starters.
Although the Lakers (10-5) have had a better start compared to Denver (8-6), I'm still not fully bought in considering they've played the eighth-softest schedule thus far. In comparison, the Nuggets have played the seventh-toughest schedule and their starters have missed a combined 13 games.
Denver's resolve will be put to the test once again as Aaron Gordon is set to miss his eighth straight game due to a calf strain.
Despite playing a softer schedule, the Lakers have the fifth-worst Defensive Efficiency with a 117.4 value. They're also the only team with double-digit wins that has a Net Rating below +2.0. Six of the other seven teams in this spot have a Net Rating of +4.0 or higher.
While first-year head coach JJ Redick deserves credit for his attention to detail that's seemingly transformed the Lakers' offense and made it look much more fluid, there's no question that they've actually taken a step back defensively.
The one advantage the Lakers will have against the Nuggets is they'll have an additional day of rest having last played on Thursday.
However, with Denver set to play a second game in as many nights, it could actually benefit from the quick turnaround, given the opportunity to make amends for blowing such a massive lead. It's worth noting that the Nuggets are already off to a 2-0 start this season when they've had to play on short rest.
Nuggets vs. Lakers Prediction
One thing about the Lakers is that with their defensive struggles resulting in high-scoring games, there tends to be more variance. As a result, Denver is completely live to steal a win here and there are two players who could thrive in this matchup against the Lakers defense.
Christian Braun has been a revelation in the starting lineup for the Nuggets since replacing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who moved on to Orlando. With more minutes under his belt, Braun raised his scoring average from 7.3 to 16.2 points while also increasing his rebounds from 3.7 to 5.3.
His points + rebounds + assists prop is available at 19.5, despite exceeding this number comfortably in 10 straight games with an average of 24.2 during that span and a median of 22.
The Lakers are the fourth-worst rebounding team (40.1) which should give Braun an even better chance to exceed this prop projection.
Another player I've highlighted on the Nuggets is Michael Porter Jr. to exceed his points + assists prop of 19.5. When facing teams ranked in the bottom 10 defensively, Porter has gone over this projection in seven of his last nine games.
And if we just focus on his recent form against the entire league this season, he's gone over this number in nine of his last 10 games. Los Angeles had very few answers for Porter during their first-round meeting in the playoffs when he averaged 22.8 points. Look for him to have another strong performance against a Lakers team that continues to show signs of a leaky defense.
My Pick: Nuggets Moneyline (+143, Caesars)
Same Game Parlay: Nuggets ML, Christian Braun Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists, Michael Porter Jr. Over 19.5 Points + Assists (+540)
