The Denver Nuggets (44-25) and Los Angeles Lakers (42-25) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, Calif. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Nuggets are 1.5-point favorites over the Lakers on the spread (Nuggets -1.5), with the over/under set at 232 total points. Denver is a -122 favorite to win outright, while Los Angeles is +102 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Lakers predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, March 19.
Nuggets vs. Lakers Picks, Prediction
Spread
A sixth straight absence for Lakers power forward LeBron James resulted in the Nuggets flipping from +1.5-point underdogs to -1.5-point favorites. However, Denver is playing inconsistently, alternating wins and losses over a seven-game stretch.
Moneyline
I see no value in taking either side on the moneyline. My model makes this game essentially a coinflip for both teams.
Over/Under
Although I'd lean to the over for the game total, I prefer to isolate the Lakers team prop and back them to score over 115.5 points.
My Pick: Lakers ALT Team Total Over 115.5 Points (-130 at BetMGM)
Nuggets vs Lakers Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 232 -112 / -108 | -122 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 232 -112 / -108 | +102 |
- Nuggets vs. Lakers spread: Nuggets -1.5
- Nuggets vs. Lakers over/under: 232 points (-112o/-108u)
- Nuggets vs. Lakers moneyline: Nuggets -122, Lakers +102
- Nuggets vs. Lakers best bet:Lakers ALT Team Total Over 115.5 Points (-130 at BetMGM)
Nuggets vs. Lakers Preview
The Lakers already faced the Nuggets without James last Friday and suffered a five-point defeat on the road. They didn't miss him too much offensively and racked up 126 points in a losing effort.
Denver will give the opposition chances to score, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency and allowing 114.7 points per 100 possessions.
However, there's more to the story than just their struggles defensively. Denver plays at the fifth-fastest pace, averaging 100.94 possessions per game.
Therefore, it's entirely possible this matchup will turn into a back-and-forth affair.
The Lakers roster is extremely talented, even with James sidelined. The arrival of Luka Doncic before the trade deadline gave Los Angeles another legitimate scorer who can take over a game at a moment's notice.
Doncic also offers a perimeter threat and his positioning on the court helps improve the Lakers' floor spacing.
It's no surprise that since his arrival, Los Angeles ranks fifth in 3-point field goals (15.0), compared to 26th (12.1) before the trade.
The Lakers should have some success against a Nuggets perimeter defense that's 23rd in opponent 3-point field goals. Moreover, if you look at Denver's hustle stats, it's just 26th in contested 3-pointers with 15.3 per game.
In their previous meeting, Los Angeles shot 39% from beyond the arc on 16-of-41 shooting.
Since this matchup should suit Doncic's skill set offensively, I'll take a shot at the Lakers going over their alternate team total of 115.5 points.
Nuggets vs. Lakers Prediction
After making my case for the Lakers' team total, I'll also look to target a player prop while building my DraftKings same-game parlay.
The injury to James creates an opportunity for another Laker to step up, and I'll take my chances with rookie Dalton Knecht to fill some of the void.
Knecht is the type of player who could thrive against the Nuggets because of his quick trigger.
The Tennessee product has a points+rebounds prop of 12.5 — a number he's cleared in eight of his past nine games, averaging 18 with a median of 16.
He has also exceeded this mark in two of three games against Denver, scoring 32 points in their most recent meeting.
Although Knecht only averages 20.6 minutes for Los Angeles, his playing time increases to 24.7 minutes against the Nuggets — suggesting the Lakers are well aware of the matchup problems he creates for Denver. As a result, the over on his points+rebounds prop makes a ton of sense.
Best Bet: Lakers ALT team total over 115.5 points (-130 at BetMGM)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Lakers Team Total Over 115.5 Points.
- Dalton Knecht Over 12.5 Points+Rebounds.
Parlay Payout: +224 (DraftKings)
Lakers vs Nuggets Betting Trends
