The Denver Nuggets (41-22) and Oklahoma City Thunder (52-11) will meet in the NBA this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 8-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Thunder -8), with the over/under set at 240.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -325 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +260 to pull off the upset.
It’s an MVP showdown in the Midwest as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder host Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. Oklahoma City continues its quest for one of the best regular seasons in NBA history, while Denver is desperately looking for quality wins against top opponents and to stay afloat in a brutal Western Conference race.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, March 9.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction
Spread
My Thunder vs. Nuggets best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Over/Under
I’ll stay away from the total, though I lean towards the over.
My Pick: Thunder -8
Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
- Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -8
- Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 240.5 total points
- Nuggets vs. Thunder moneyline: Nuggets +260, Thunder -325
- Nuggets vs. Thunder best bet: Thunder -8 (-110)
Nuggets vs. Thunder Preview
Denver Nuggets
Denver has the best player in the matchup. As great as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been, and as formidable as the Thunder defense is, there is no problem-solver like Nikola Jokic.
The combo of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstain hasn’t been what the Thunder have wanted so far; they have a 120 defensive rating, which is shocking. If you can’t play them together, it diminishes the value of having iHart guard Jokic and Holmgren roam weakside as a rim protector.
Jokic can just beat iHart and Holmgren one-on-one. The Thunder can respond by having a guard defend Jokic and help with the others, this was the Lakers’ tactic. But even putting super-physical Lu Dort on Jokic comes at a big cost with him not defending Jamal Murray, who has been playing well and looks like his old self.
The other massive advantage for Denver is at the line. The Nuggets have the 10th-highest free throw rate this season, while OKC is the second-worst in opponent free throw rate. The Nuggets can live at the line to keep OKC from getting away and force them to back off their aggressive ball pressure.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are vicious when it comes to creating turnovers, and while Denver is 13th in turnover rate, they’ve flirted several times with being bottom-five in opponent points off turnovers. It evens the matchup with their elite offense.
Denver’s defensive scheme against pick-and-roll is to play Jokic at the level of the defense, then behind him, the other defenders rotate.
This may not be as huge of a scoring game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (though he does lead OKC in points off turnovers). But Denver struggles to contain, and they have the cutters and shooters to make Denver pay for that coverage.
Betting Trends
- Denver is 3-13 SU vs. top-10 point differential teams with a -7.3 spread differential.
- Denver is 2-8 ATS vs. teams with a 60% win percentage or better, and 1-4 ATS against the top three teams in the league.
- The Nuggets made 21 threes against the Suns in overtime Friday. Teams off making 20 or more threes are 68-108 ATS (38.6 percent) since 2003.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction
Oklahoma City has been too consistently good and matches up too well with Denver. The turnovers are the real problem. At home, with a raucous crowd, in a defining game for SGA’s MVP hopes, the Thunder’s defense is the best unit on the floor by far.
I make this game Thunder -9.7, and that feels right to me based on the matchup. OKC gets it done and handles a Denver team that’s good, not great, especially against great teams.
For a same game parlay, Oklahoma City -7.5 with SGA 7+ assists and Isaiah Hartenstein 4+ assists comes out to +600. With the way Denver plays pick-and-roll, SGA will make some reads to the weak-side and to cutters. Hartenstein will get short-roll and transition passing opportunities.
Best Bet: Thunder -8 (-110)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7+ Assists
- Isaiah Hartenstein 4+ Assists
- Thunder -8
Parlay Payout: +600
Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Trends
