Denver gets another rematch of last year's NBA Playoffs with a matchup against the Wolves. To recap, here's what happened last year:
Despite all the talk about it being Denver's toughest series, Minnesota had no answers for Denver's offense in four of the five games. In Game 1, the Wolves couldn't figure out anything against the Nuggets' defense, but for the rest of the series, they had decent offensive performances, consistently scoring between 111 and 118 points per 100 possessions — above average against Denver's stellar playoff defense.
The first-round series for both teams might not be as revealing as they look. I take very little from the Nuggets' performance against the Lakers. They clearly didn't view them as a real threat, which is why their offensive rating was 25 points better in the second half than the first half in the series. I also think it's important not to overreact to Minnesota's performance (on either end) against Phoenix. The Suns played horrific on both ends and were dominated physically. The Wolves dominated the glass and drew a ton of fouls to the best offense in the first round, but those are two of Denver's biggest defensive strengths.
The difficulty of beating healthy Denver is there is no answer for its offense. The Nuggets routinely put up 120 points per possession in the playoffs last year, and they only lost once when they did. So the ways to beat a healthy Nuggets team are either to outscore them, or to figure out some way to limit their defense. To me, it seems clear that outscoring Denver is not the answer for Minnesota, which means there are two questions:
- Is Denver really healthy enough?
- Can Minnesota find a way to slow Denver's offense down enough to win?
Nuggets Defense vs. Timberwolves Offense
Denver and Minnesota played four times this season. In two games, the Nuggets shot under 18.5% and 30.8% from 3, and lost. In the other two, they shot 52% and 44% from 3, and won. In all four, Denver shot below average at the rim, which is the hope with a Rudy Gobert defense. In the playoffs last year, Minnesota was unable to slow down Denver's offense at all, and that elite rim protection just wasn't there.
Last round, the Wolves opened with Karl-Anthony Towns on Kevin Durant, figuring to just let Durant get his points and limit everything else. I think they may go a similar route with Nikola Jokić, putting Towns on him and leaving Gobert on Aaron Gordon and to patrol the paint. While this doesn't "solve" Jokić, it could help prevent back cuts and open dunks/layups, which are what repeatedly kill teams that play the Nuggets.
The Wolves' defense is better than it was in the playoffs last year, and I think they will give the Nuggets more trouble. It's ultimately a new puzzle for Jokić, and while I think he eventually solves it, it may take some time, as Chris Finch is able to make adjustments.
Denver Injuries
The biggest question, and unknown, is Denver's injuries, especially when it comes to Jamal Murray. This Nuggets team is very shallow, and needs all five of its starters to reach peak effectiveness. Murray had some huge games against the Wolves in the playoffs last year, and the Nuggets are not the same time if he isn't himself.
If Murray is severely limited, or isn't the force he was, I am not sure Denver can win this series. If he is a full go, I think the Nuggets are 80+% to win the series.
Series Pick
The Wolves were better than the Nuggets in the regular season, but don't have home-court advantage, and the Nuggets are around -200 to win the series. Since the year 2000, there have been 14 other times when a team was a decent favorite, had home-court advantage, but was a little worse during the regular season. Those teams won nine out of 14 series. We know home court matters, as does having a history of past playoff success, as well as the best player in the series. Denver has all of those advantages behind it.
Ultimately, the Nuggets haven't lost a series with this starting lineup healthy, and I don't think it starts now. Murray was able to defy expectations last game, and I think he will here as well. Before the playoffs, I thought it made more sense to bet the Nuggets and roll it over series to series, and we are going to do something similar.
The best odds on Nuggets to win the series is -190 at BetMGM, but that includes the possibility of a sweep. I don't think that is on the table here. Minnesota has too many counters. Same with five games: Between Murray's health and the Nuggets' lack of depth, I think Minnesota will be able to win at least two games from this Denver team. This reminds me of the Phoenix series last year, which ended up being the Nuggets' toughest. This time, it's on the defensive end, while with Phoenix it was on offense.
I'm betting .5u on Denver to win 4-2 at +500 and .6u on Denver to win 4-3 at +425, both on BetMGM (BetRivers has the same odds on 4-2 and similar on 4-3). This give composite odds of +180, which I think are about right. I'd say Denver is at least 45% to win in six or seven here, so I'd bet this down to composite odds of around 43%. The historical context backs up these numbers, and lets us know it makes a lot of sense to bet this. No team has ever been swept in this circumstance as well (since 2000).
Series Leaders
For series leaders, the one I'm eyeing is 3-pointers.
During the regular season, Towns, Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards all made about the same amount of 3-pointers per game (around 2.4). For Denver, Michael Porter Jr. and Murray led the team, with 2.7 and 2.5 3s per game, respectively. No one else on the other team averaged more than 1.6, which means it's almost certainly going to be one of those five players.
Porter is averaging 4.0 3s per game so far these playoffs, but on almost 50% shooting from distance. Edwards, on the other hand, is taking almost the same amount of 3s, but shooting 44% and averaging 3.5 per game in the playoffs.
Edwards has upped his 3-point volume every year he has been in the playoffs, and last year, he finished second in this series behind Murray. If Murray misses any time, or is in any way limited, I'd put Edwards as the co-favorite here — whereas most books have him third. I'm betting .25u on Anthony Edwards to lead the series in total made 3s at +300 on DraftKings. I'd bet that down to +200.
