Nuggets vs Timberwolves Picks & Prediction: NBA Series Preview
We haven't even wrapped up the first round of the NBA playoffs, but we're already on to the second round.
The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves coasted here, losing just one in nine combined games, and that sets up the most anticipated matchup of the entire second round. Nuggets vs Wolves isn't just the best series this round. It might be the Western Conference Finals — maybe even the NBA Finals.
It's the defending NBA champion Nuggets featuring the best player on earth in Nikola Jokic and repeat offender clutch god Jamal Murray up against the rugged, physical Timberwolves and a guy who just loudly announced to an entire world that he's got next in Anthony Edwards.
In a league growing more and more homogeneous, Nuggets-Wolves represents a clash of styles, a battle of established vs. upstart, a series that could go down as an all-timer between two great teams.
Let's dive in with a look at matchup advantages each way, my best bet, and a series pick.
When the Nuggets Are on Offense
Everything about Denver's offense revolves around the soon-to-be three-time NBA MVP, Nikola Jokic.
Jokic breaks the game of basketball. He literally invents new passes. Every game, Jokic makes two or three plays so creative they'd be career highlights for 99% of most players in history, then shrugs his shoulders and toddles back down the court.
With Jokic on the court, Denver routinely creates easy buckets with player movement, back cuts, and creative passing angles. That's why the Nuggets lead the league in 2-pointers made and rank seventh in 2-point percentage. There are just so many easy baskets.
Those easy looks will be difficult to come by against this elite Timberwolves defense that led the league in 2-point percentage defense. We saw that play out in the season series, with Denver making just 51.9% of its 2s, way down from its 56.2% season average. Nuggets starting point guards — including Reggie Jackson in one game Jamal Murray sat — shot 14-of-40 on 2s in the four games, an ugly 35%.
Denver doesn't really want many 3s and won't get a ton against this defense. When the Nuggets lost two of the four regular-season matchups, they shot 18 and 29% from deep. When they won, they made around 35 2s instead of 25 in losses. This team wants to win inside the arc.
Denver's entire offense is basically built around Jokic creating elite EFG looks, and Minnesota ranks first in EFG defense. Historically, teams this elite defensively tend to win a series or two before eventually falling to a top-seven offense, and Denver's offense has been even better than elite this season.
The Nuggets should win on the glass, especially offensive rebounds. That can create easy second chances. Denver needs to try to get Minnesota into foul trouble. The Nuggets don't get to the line often but need some easy points, and they can dent this giant defense simply by getting Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert off the court.
Minnesota's defensive size is a real issue for Denver. The Wolves can sic Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker's length on Jamal Murray all series, and they can leave Rudy Gobert to roam and cut off all the 2s and passing angles, with Aaron Gordon mostly a non-spacing threat.
When the Timberwolves Are on Offense
It's way more interesting to focus on the other side of the ball when Minnesota's stifling defense attempts to shut down Jokic and Murray, but this side of things may define the matchup.
This is the matchup where Denver has a real edge in this series, with Minnesota's offense the weakest link of the four units.
Minnesota has a relatively balanced shot diet but will live mostly inside the arc, so this may end up a series of 2s. That's where things could swing in Denver's direction. The Timberwolves are league-average on 2-point percentage while the Nuggets rank top-five. Denver's defense was quietly terrific. The bench unit, though it lacks scoring punch, features tough defenders like Peyton Watson and Christian Braun.
Scoring will not come easy for the Wolves, and that combined with the slow pace from both sides should make us look for unders — but that lower-scoring, rugged series nature also favors Minnesota stylistically.
One way for Minnesota to find some easy points will be at the free-throw line, where the Wolves should have a clear advantage. Minnesota shot 27 and 37 free throws in its two wins against Denver, and the Wolves are excellent at getting to the line while Denver rates below average defensively there. Denver can't afford to get its starting five into foul trouble.
That's because Denver has real depth issues, and that's another area Minnesota could find a real edge in this series. The Timberwolves have a huge depth advantage. Denver has two of the top three players, but you can argue that Minnesota has seven of the next 10. That matters on so many levels.
Two of Denver's starting five are dealing with injuries — Jamal Murray (calf) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ankle). Minnesota is healthier and has more options to replace a player who's ailing or in foul trouble, and that depth advantage only grows as a grueling, physical series progresses. That could neuter Denver's significant home-court advantage, and it can help Minnesota win those all-important non-Jokic minutes.
And, of course, there's Anthony Edwards. The Nuggets really don't have an answer for Ant. Aaron Gordon and KCP will get plenty of opportunities, but Gordon's too slow and KCP is too small. When that jumper is wet, Edwards is unstoppable. He could have some big games.
The matchup problems for Denver don't stop there. Where do you hide Jamal Murray? Mike Conley had big games in the season series, and you probably want KCP on Conley, but now who does Murray defend? Someone half a foot taller? Does Jokic defend Gobert, or will he be forced away from the basket to defend KAT's shooting? Can Denver use Aaron Gordon as its backup center against all this size?
Start to move the chess pieces around, and there aren't really great answers for Denver. This is where you remember that Minnesota president Tim Connelly came over from Denver to Minnesota and built this team specifically with the Nuggets in mind. This is why you move heaven and earth to get Rudy Gobert and keep McDaniels, building a team with so much size.
It was all for this matchup. The Timberwolves were literally built to beat the Nuggets.
Best Bet: Jamal Murray Series Assists Leader (+900, BetMGM)
One consistent theme when these teams face off, especially this season, is that Minnesota is trying to turn Nikola Jokic into a scorer, not a facilitator.
Jokic wants to create first. He knows the easiest way to win is by creating layups for his teammates. But Minnesota is built to stop those freebies and force Denver to find other, more traditional offense. The Wolves will live with Jokic posting up or hoisting a few extra 3s, as long as he doesn't get those assists.
In four games against the Wolves this season, Jokic scored at least 25 every time and averaged 33.3 points per game, but he recorded only three, two, five, and seven assists, a paltry 4.3 assists per game. That's less than half his season average of 9.0 assists per game, and the potential assists were down too. He averaged 15 a game for the season but was at 10 or fewer in all but the one game without Murray, averaging just 9.3 potential assists.
Less Jokic creation meant more creation from Denver's starting point guards, who averaged 8.3 assists per game in those four games on 13.3 potential assists, well up from the 10.5 season average.
In the 2023 NBA Finals, we saw another great defense in Miami defend Jokic similarly, and Murray was up to the task. He had 50 assists in five games, to just 36 for Jokic, leading the series and hitting this bet.
Minnesota is a more egalitarian offense, with the leader usually around five or six dimes a game, so I see this as a head-to-head bet between Nuggets.
This line is badly mispriced. Normally for a bet at +900, I'd play a half unit, maybe a full unit if I really liked it. This is a multi-unit play for me.
If we get at least one big Murray-Jokic assist swing early in the series, we'll be in a powerful position to hedge with Joker later as needed, or just let it ride for the big payday.
Series Pick: Timberwolves in 6 Games (+550, DraftKings)
If you read everything above and thought to yourself "Okay, I guess Brandon is backing the Nuggets here," you're probably a bit surprised by this pick — and you're not actually wrong.
I do think the Nuggets are the better team — slightly. There are clear matchup advantages in each direction in a series that should be tight. The Nuggets have the best player alive, a huge advantage in clutch time and a big experience edge. They also have what I expect to be a significant home-court advantage.
If I could pick a winner straight up, I'd pick Denver. But bettors don't get to create their own odds, and I can't get to Denver -190 where the Nuggets are priced, implying over 65% of winning.
How about Nuggets -1.5 on the series line at +100, meaning Denver in six or less? That would typically be my pivot, but that means sacrificing that sweet home Game 7 in altitude, a winner-take-all spot for the team with the best player and all the clutch and experience edges. Game 7 is the one game I'd be most confident of a winner in this series — I can't sacrifice that.
Even though I think Denver is more likely to win the series, I can't escape feeling that the numbers leave an edge on Minnesota, not Denver.
Now, start narrowing down options. I don't want Wolves in Game 7. I don't see them sweeping. Could they win four of five and close the champs out on the road in Game 5? Not impossible, but doesn't feel like an out I need. If Minnesota wins this series, I think the Wolves need to close out at home in Game 6.
With Minnesota at +175 to win the series (implied 36%), I need "Wolves in 6" to be the way Minnesota wins the series at least 42% of the time for this to be the right bet. I'd put our chances over 50%.
This is just a lean for me — the very specific bet portends a lack of confidence, not overconfidence. This series is tight, and this is the best edge on the board.
I'll play a half unit at +550 and leave myself an opportunity to pivot later in the series.
Props & Other Angles
Both teams have been incredible at home, so you want to look for spots to bet the home team when possible. Denver's home advantage could be especially big in Games 2 and 5, playing in altitude in short rest.
In games where you like the Nuggets, look to be them early. Denver has a +14.8 Net Rating in the first quarter, which is second in the NBA. In games where you like the Wolves, you may want to play the second half or wait to bet live. Minnesota can start slow but is +13.2 in the third quarter and +9.2 in the second half, and the latter number goes up to +14.0 at home, all of which are the best in the NBA.
I'm looking for unders until proven otherwise, with both teams playing a slow pace and both defenses with a real advantage.
If you like the Murray assists angle, that's playable game-to-game, along with fading Jokic. If you think Jokic is going to get those assists, you should probably be on Denver in the series.
In a series that probably won't have a ton of 3s, that series leader market looks worth keeping an eye on. Michael Porter Jr. is the right favorite, but this is ripe for a long shot. I'll nibble Nickeil Alexander-Walker at +4000 (DraftKings). He took 7.0 attempts in 31 minutes per game in the first round and should see plenty of minutes again here with his size and defensive versatility.
