Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks for Sunday, Feb. 25
Here's everything you need to know about Nuggets vs. Warriors on Sunday, Feb. 25 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
There's plenty at stake on Sunday, with the Warriors hoping to avoid being swept by the Nuggets in their regular season series. While the Warriors are 0-3 against the defending champions, they did manage to cover the spread in each meeting.
To say there were fine margins in the games probably wouldn't go far enough to capture the level of competitiveness on both sides. Golden State lost all three games by six or fewer points, and two of the losses were by three points.
The betting market never showed that much faith in the Warriors in those meetings, considering they were catching anywhere between four and 7.5 points as underdogs. This time around, Golden State is currently a one-point underdog after opening at +2.5.
That line move on the Warriors could be promising for Warriors' backers, particularly when you consider Golden State's recent performance as a home 'dog in this spot over the last few years.
Let's get to our Nuggets vs. Warriors prediction and pick.
Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction
Pick: Warriors +2 (-124)
Nuggets Betting Outlook
After returning to action from the All-Star break, Denver took care of business with back-to-back wins over the Wizards (130-110) and Trail Blazers (127-112). However, with both teams a combined 24-87 on the year, anything short of a dominant victory would've been a disappointment.
There's no question that the Warriors are easily a step up in class, given the level of competition they can offer the Nuggets.
Having faced one another three times this season, we should have a decent sample size to analyze this matchup. Unfortunately, a deep dive into the box scores failed to reveal anything different than what we already know — that these teams were pretty evenly matched.
It didn't matter whether the game was played at a slow pace like the first meeting or with a more up-tempo style in the last two games; there wasn't much separation between these teams. In their most recent meeting, Denver won on a 40-foot bank shot by Nikola Jokic as time expired in the fourth quarter.
JOKIC WINS IT ‼️
JOKER WINS THE GAME WITH THE #TissotBuzzerBeater FROM 39 FEET AWAY 😱🤯#YourTimeDefinesYourGreatnesspic.twitter.com/ykPdygIQ03
— NBA (@NBA) January 5, 2024
Jokic's game-winner is symbolic of the ball simply bouncing Denver's way in this series. At some point, you've got to think it's the Warriors' turn to finally catch a break.
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Warriors Betting Outlook
When you look at the scheduling, it's a bit interesting that the first three games in this series were before the season's halfway point. The Warriors had only played 33 games the last time the teams met.
And after their third head-to-head loss, the Warriors' record dropped to 16-18.
However, this Golden State team is very different from the one we saw earlier in the season. The Warriors have started to find their form, winning 11 of their past 15 games and eight of their last nine.
The turnaround really began following the untimely death of their assistant coach, Dejan Milojević. That tragedy seemed to bring the Warriors closer together, vowing to play the rest of the season in his honor.
They've also made some lineup changes, with head coach Steve Kerr opting to start Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski instead of Kevon Looney and Klay Thompson.
Since Milojević's passing, the Warriors have the fourth-best defensive rating per NBA.com, allowing 111.2 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors previously ranked 20th in this category with a 115.9 rating.
Thus, the numbers show that the Warriors are playing like a different team in terms of their mentality, focus and personnel changes on the court.
Nuggets vs. Warriors Picks, Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 230.5 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 230.5 -110 / -110 | -105 |
The advanced numbers suggest that Golden State has been one of the most unlucky teams this season.
They've been involved in 37 clutch games (where the scoring margin is within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining in the fourth quarter or overtime), which is the highest of any team in the league.
In those games, Golden State is 18-19, and those numbers tend to even out over time.
Despite currently sitting 10th in the West, their +2.1 point differential is the seventh-best mark in the conference. As a result, ESPN's Relative Percent Index suggests the Warriors should be closer to a 31-24 than their actual record of 29-26.
I think the market is on to something here, with the Warriors being bet down as a home underdog. Our Action Labs database shows that Golden State is 4-0-1 against the spread in this spot over the last three seasons.
Since Lady Luck hasn't particularly been on the Warriors' side this season, I'll add a little insurance by playing the Warriors on an alternate spread at +2 with -124 odds at BetRivers.
Pick: Warriors +2 (-124)
